Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]

Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.

How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]

Sorry but I dont disagree. Case Shiller could well be lower. I dont play the averages, I play to beat the averages.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=briansd1][quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.[/quote]

You are cherry picking a highly visible high profile example. I beleive those are outliers and not representative of the greater populace. i look at properties all day and pull up loan balances on the homes on the market as wellas the ones down the street. i just dont see high leverage among long time home woners as a rule, its more the xception from what I have seen.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=briansd1][quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.[/quote]

You are cherry picking a highly visible high profile example. I beleive those are outliers and not representative of the greater populace. i look at properties all day and pull up loan balances on the homes on the market as wellas the ones down the street. i just dont see high leverage among long time home woners as a rule, its more the xception from what I have seen.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=briansd1][quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.[/quote]

You are cherry picking a highly visible high profile example. I beleive those are outliers and not representative of the greater populace. i look at properties all day and pull up loan balances on the homes on the market as wellas the ones down the street. i just dont see high leverage among long time home woners as a rule, its more the xception from what I have seen.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=briansd1][quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.[/quote]

You are cherry picking a highly visible high profile example. I beleive those are outliers and not representative of the greater populace. i look at properties all day and pull up loan balances on the homes on the market as wellas the ones down the street. i just dont see high leverage among long time home woners as a rule, its more the xception from what I have seen.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=briansd1][quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.[/quote]

You are cherry picking a highly visible high profile example. I beleive those are outliers and not representative of the greater populace. i look at properties all day and pull up loan balances on the homes on the market as wellas the ones down the street. i just dont see high leverage among long time home woners as a rule, its more the xception from what I have seen.

[sdrealtor]

I have to disagree that the $2M+ crowd will determine the direction of the market. That market is completely disconnected from the under $800K market which makes up the vast majority of this market.

Time to go see my friend Roger Waters take down a wall;)

[sdrealtor]

I have to disagree that the $2M+ crowd will determine the direction of the market. That market is completely disconnected from the under $800K market which makes up the vast majority of this market.

Time to go see my friend Roger Waters take down a wall;)

[sdrealtor]

I have to disagree that the $2M+ crowd will determine the direction of the market. That market is completely disconnected from the under $800K market which makes up the vast majority of this market.

Time to go see my friend Roger Waters take down a wall;)

[sdrealtor]

I have to disagree that the $2M+ crowd will determine the direction of the market. That market is completely disconnected from the under $800K market which makes up the vast majority of this market.

Time to go see my friend Roger Waters take down a wall;)

[sdrealtor]

I have to disagree that the $2M+ crowd will determine the direction of the market. That market is completely disconnected from the under $800K market which makes up the vast majority of this market.

Time to go see my friend Roger Waters take down a wall;)

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]

Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.

How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]

Sorry but I dont disagree. Case Shiller could well be lower. I dont play the averages, I play to beat the averages.[/quote]

Imagine, with all the folks on here who believe RE has bottomed they should be lining up to take this bet. Any takers?? Actually I’m not super confident in the 10% drop in nominal terms due to no end in site to the governments massive QE program de-valuing the dollar.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]

Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.

How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]

Sorry but I dont disagree. Case Shiller could well be lower. I dont play the averages, I play to beat the averages.[/quote]

Imagine, with all the folks on here who believe RE has bottomed they should be lining up to take this bet. Any takers?? Actually I’m not super confident in the 10% drop in nominal terms due to no end in site to the governments massive QE program de-valuing the dollar.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]

Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.

How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]

Sorry but I dont disagree. Case Shiller could well be lower. I dont play the averages, I play to beat the averages.[/quote]

Imagine, with all the folks on here who believe RE has bottomed they should be lining up to take this bet. Any takers?? Actually I’m not super confident in the 10% drop in nominal terms due to no end in site to the governments massive QE program de-valuing the dollar.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]

Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.

How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]

Sorry but I dont disagree. Case Shiller could well be lower. I dont play the averages, I play to beat the averages.[/quote]

Imagine, with all the folks on here who believe RE has bottomed they should be lining up to take this bet. Any takers?? Actually I’m not super confident in the 10% drop in nominal terms due to no end in site to the governments massive QE program de-valuing the dollar.

[Author]

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