Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[Anonymous]

It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.[/quote]

deadzone, in order to respond to you, I need a little more info.

If you don’t mind my asking, where is your target purchase area located, i.e. LJ “Muirlands,” LJ “Village,” “Allied Gardens,” etc.

Also, are you considering properties within a custom or tract area (if wishing to purchase an SFR)?

If in a custom area, do you have particular streets picked out that you wish to purchase on? If so, what are they?

If on a tract, do you have any particular tracts picked out? If so, what are they?

Or are you wishing to purchase a condo? If so, have you already chose one or more target complexes to focus on?

And, where is the recent “release from sticky pricing” you observed within “LJ?” Was it all in the same area, or scattered?? Did any of these property-owners who reduced their asking prices receive a Notice of Default during their listing period? Did any of their close neighbors get foreclosed on during their listing period? Did any nearby “short sales” successfully close recently?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.[/quote]

deadzone, in order to respond to you, I need a little more info.

If you don’t mind my asking, where is your target purchase area located, i.e. LJ “Muirlands,” LJ “Village,” “Allied Gardens,” etc.

Also, are you considering properties within a custom or tract area (if wishing to purchase an SFR)?

If in a custom area, do you have particular streets picked out that you wish to purchase on? If so, what are they?

If on a tract, do you have any particular tracts picked out? If so, what are they?

Or are you wishing to purchase a condo? If so, have you already chose one or more target complexes to focus on?

And, where is the recent “release from sticky pricing” you observed within “LJ?” Was it all in the same area, or scattered?? Did any of these property-owners who reduced their asking prices receive a Notice of Default during their listing period? Did any of their close neighbors get foreclosed on during their listing period? Did any nearby “short sales” successfully close recently?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.[/quote]

deadzone, in order to respond to you, I need a little more info.

If you don’t mind my asking, where is your target purchase area located, i.e. LJ “Muirlands,” LJ “Village,” “Allied Gardens,” etc.

Also, are you considering properties within a custom or tract area (if wishing to purchase an SFR)?

If in a custom area, do you have particular streets picked out that you wish to purchase on? If so, what are they?

If on a tract, do you have any particular tracts picked out? If so, what are they?

Or are you wishing to purchase a condo? If so, have you already chose one or more target complexes to focus on?

And, where is the recent “release from sticky pricing” you observed within “LJ?” Was it all in the same area, or scattered?? Did any of these property-owners who reduced their asking prices receive a Notice of Default during their listing period? Did any of their close neighbors get foreclosed on during their listing period? Did any nearby “short sales” successfully close recently?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.[/quote]

deadzone, in order to respond to you, I need a little more info.

If you don’t mind my asking, where is your target purchase area located, i.e. LJ “Muirlands,” LJ “Village,” “Allied Gardens,” etc.

Also, are you considering properties within a custom or tract area (if wishing to purchase an SFR)?

If in a custom area, do you have particular streets picked out that you wish to purchase on? If so, what are they?

If on a tract, do you have any particular tracts picked out? If so, what are they?

Or are you wishing to purchase a condo? If so, have you already chose one or more target complexes to focus on?

And, where is the recent “release from sticky pricing” you observed within “LJ?” Was it all in the same area, or scattered?? Did any of these property-owners who reduced their asking prices receive a Notice of Default during their listing period? Did any of their close neighbors get foreclosed on during their listing period? Did any nearby “short sales” successfully close recently?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.[/quote]

deadzone, in order to respond to you, I need a little more info.

If you don’t mind my asking, where is your target purchase area located, i.e. LJ “Muirlands,” LJ “Village,” “Allied Gardens,” etc.

Also, are you considering properties within a custom or tract area (if wishing to purchase an SFR)?

If in a custom area, do you have particular streets picked out that you wish to purchase on? If so, what are they?

If on a tract, do you have any particular tracts picked out? If so, what are they?

Or are you wishing to purchase a condo? If so, have you already chose one or more target complexes to focus on?

And, where is the recent “release from sticky pricing” you observed within “LJ?” Was it all in the same area, or scattered?? Did any of these property-owners who reduced their asking prices receive a Notice of Default during their listing period? Did any of their close neighbors get foreclosed on during their listing period? Did any nearby “short sales” successfully close recently?

[faterikcartman]

[quote=sdrealtor]Articles like that are written to sell newpapers and are pretty meaningless. What does it mean when they say high end prices are about where they were in 2005? It doesnt mean anything to my client who is in escrow on a prime coastal property at what is a 2000 and possibly a 1999 price. We are already close enough to a bottom. There is no point in time when everything magically hits bottom. There is a period of time where the smart buyers can go out armed with knowledge, money and a great agent to make their own bottom. That time is now and will persist for a few years. That is were the big winners will be found. Those of you sitting out there waiting for some magical moment will not be among them.[/quote]

This.

We’ve got offers on two short sales right now. Buy low sell high is great advice for stocks or real estate.
Timing either market is not, IMO.
YMMV.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=sdrealtor]Articles like that are written to sell newpapers and are pretty meaningless. What does it mean when they say high end prices are about where they were in 2005? It doesnt mean anything to my client who is in escrow on a prime coastal property at what is a 2000 and possibly a 1999 price. We are already close enough to a bottom. There is no point in time when everything magically hits bottom. There is a period of time where the smart buyers can go out armed with knowledge, money and a great agent to make their own bottom. That time is now and will persist for a few years. That is were the big winners will be found. Those of you sitting out there waiting for some magical moment will not be among them.[/quote]

This.

We’ve got offers on two short sales right now. Buy low sell high is great advice for stocks or real estate.
Timing either market is not, IMO.
YMMV.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=sdrealtor]Articles like that are written to sell newpapers and are pretty meaningless. What does it mean when they say high end prices are about where they were in 2005? It doesnt mean anything to my client who is in escrow on a prime coastal property at what is a 2000 and possibly a 1999 price. We are already close enough to a bottom. There is no point in time when everything magically hits bottom. There is a period of time where the smart buyers can go out armed with knowledge, money and a great agent to make their own bottom. That time is now and will persist for a few years. That is were the big winners will be found. Those of you sitting out there waiting for some magical moment will not be among them.[/quote]

This.

We’ve got offers on two short sales right now. Buy low sell high is great advice for stocks or real estate.
Timing either market is not, IMO.
YMMV.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=sdrealtor]Articles like that are written to sell newpapers and are pretty meaningless. What does it mean when they say high end prices are about where they were in 2005? It doesnt mean anything to my client who is in escrow on a prime coastal property at what is a 2000 and possibly a 1999 price. We are already close enough to a bottom. There is no point in time when everything magically hits bottom. There is a period of time where the smart buyers can go out armed with knowledge, money and a great agent to make their own bottom. That time is now and will persist for a few years. That is were the big winners will be found. Those of you sitting out there waiting for some magical moment will not be among them.[/quote]

This.

We’ve got offers on two short sales right now. Buy low sell high is great advice for stocks or real estate.
Timing either market is not, IMO.
YMMV.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=sdrealtor]Articles like that are written to sell newpapers and are pretty meaningless. What does it mean when they say high end prices are about where they were in 2005? It doesnt mean anything to my client who is in escrow on a prime coastal property at what is a 2000 and possibly a 1999 price. We are already close enough to a bottom. There is no point in time when everything magically hits bottom. There is a period of time where the smart buyers can go out armed with knowledge, money and a great agent to make their own bottom. That time is now and will persist for a few years. That is were the big winners will be found. Those of you sitting out there waiting for some magical moment will not be among them.[/quote]

This.

We’ve got offers on two short sales right now. Buy low sell high is great advice for stocks or real estate.
Timing either market is not, IMO.
YMMV.

[Anonymous]

Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.

[Anonymous]

Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.

[Anonymous]

Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.

[Anonymous]

Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.

[Author]

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