Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]No crap, if you pay attention to the ARM reset charts it has been obvious for a few years now that there is no chance for a real housing bottom until at least 2012. The bulk of the ARM resets occur in 2011 and 2012. So regardless of interest rates and other factors, there is no chance for a real recovery to begin until those ARMs (aka foreclosures) are out of the system.[/quote]

deadzone, your “theory” here ONLY APPLIES to those areas where ARM and “30 due in 7, 5 (or 3)” and/or I/O mortgages were prevalent. In areas where the vast majority of buyers did not have access to these products (b/c they did not exist at the time of purchase) and there were very few refinances/helocs taken out in the last ten years, this “theory,” won’t hold. If you have your sights set on properties within these areas, you will find yourself waiting for a “recovery” that will never happen, IMHO.

[Anonymous]

bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.

[Anonymous]

bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.

[Anonymous]

bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.

[Anonymous]

bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.

[Anonymous]

bearishgirl, you make some valid points but I don’t see how you can conclude that these older areas have already hit bottom.

Again, can you give an example of one of these areas?

La Jolla, for instance, was very sticky pricing for most of the downturn. But I have noticed a significant change over the last 6 months or so where asking prices are moving noticably south.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]No crap, if you pay attention to the ARM reset charts it has been obvious for a few years now that there is no chance for a real housing bottom until at least 2012. The bulk of the ARM resets occur in 2011 and 2012. So regardless of interest rates and other factors, there is no chance for a real recovery to begin until those ARMs (aka foreclosures) are out of the system.[/quote]

deadzone, your “theory” here ONLY APPLIES to those areas where ARM and “30 due in 7, 5 (or 3)” and/or I/O mortgages were prevalent. In areas where the vast majority of buyers did not have access to these products (b/c they did not exist at the time of purchase) and there were very few refinances/helocs taken out in the last ten years, this “theory,” won’t hold. If you have your sights set on properties within these areas, you will find yourself waiting for a “recovery” that will never happen, IMHO.[/quote]

The majority of all mortgages in California in the 2004-2006 bubble years where these sorts of interest only mortgages. Maybe they weren’t as prevalent in La Jolla, for example, but the fact is no area is completely isolated regardless of what the NAR/CAR liars say on TV.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]No crap, if you pay attention to the ARM reset charts it has been obvious for a few years now that there is no chance for a real housing bottom until at least 2012. The bulk of the ARM resets occur in 2011 and 2012. So regardless of interest rates and other factors, there is no chance for a real recovery to begin until those ARMs (aka foreclosures) are out of the system.[/quote]

deadzone, your “theory” here ONLY APPLIES to those areas where ARM and “30 due in 7, 5 (or 3)” and/or I/O mortgages were prevalent. In areas where the vast majority of buyers did not have access to these products (b/c they did not exist at the time of purchase) and there were very few refinances/helocs taken out in the last ten years, this “theory,” won’t hold. If you have your sights set on properties within these areas, you will find yourself waiting for a “recovery” that will never happen, IMHO.[/quote]

The majority of all mortgages in California in the 2004-2006 bubble years where these sorts of interest only mortgages. Maybe they weren’t as prevalent in La Jolla, for example, but the fact is no area is completely isolated regardless of what the NAR/CAR liars say on TV.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]No crap, if you pay attention to the ARM reset charts it has been obvious for a few years now that there is no chance for a real housing bottom until at least 2012. The bulk of the ARM resets occur in 2011 and 2012. So regardless of interest rates and other factors, there is no chance for a real recovery to begin until those ARMs (aka foreclosures) are out of the system.[/quote]

deadzone, your “theory” here ONLY APPLIES to those areas where ARM and “30 due in 7, 5 (or 3)” and/or I/O mortgages were prevalent. In areas where the vast majority of buyers did not have access to these products (b/c they did not exist at the time of purchase) and there were very few refinances/helocs taken out in the last ten years, this “theory,” won’t hold. If you have your sights set on properties within these areas, you will find yourself waiting for a “recovery” that will never happen, IMHO.[/quote]

The majority of all mortgages in California in the 2004-2006 bubble years where these sorts of interest only mortgages. Maybe they weren’t as prevalent in La Jolla, for example, but the fact is no area is completely isolated regardless of what the NAR/CAR liars say on TV.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]No crap, if you pay attention to the ARM reset charts it has been obvious for a few years now that there is no chance for a real housing bottom until at least 2012. The bulk of the ARM resets occur in 2011 and 2012. So regardless of interest rates and other factors, there is no chance for a real recovery to begin until those ARMs (aka foreclosures) are out of the system.[/quote]

deadzone, your “theory” here ONLY APPLIES to those areas where ARM and “30 due in 7, 5 (or 3)” and/or I/O mortgages were prevalent. In areas where the vast majority of buyers did not have access to these products (b/c they did not exist at the time of purchase) and there were very few refinances/helocs taken out in the last ten years, this “theory,” won’t hold. If you have your sights set on properties within these areas, you will find yourself waiting for a “recovery” that will never happen, IMHO.[/quote]

The majority of all mortgages in California in the 2004-2006 bubble years where these sorts of interest only mortgages. Maybe they weren’t as prevalent in La Jolla, for example, but the fact is no area is completely isolated regardless of what the NAR/CAR liars say on TV.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]No crap, if you pay attention to the ARM reset charts it has been obvious for a few years now that there is no chance for a real housing bottom until at least 2012. The bulk of the ARM resets occur in 2011 and 2012. So regardless of interest rates and other factors, there is no chance for a real recovery to begin until those ARMs (aka foreclosures) are out of the system.[/quote]

deadzone, your “theory” here ONLY APPLIES to those areas where ARM and “30 due in 7, 5 (or 3)” and/or I/O mortgages were prevalent. In areas where the vast majority of buyers did not have access to these products (b/c they did not exist at the time of purchase) and there were very few refinances/helocs taken out in the last ten years, this “theory,” won’t hold. If you have your sights set on properties within these areas, you will find yourself waiting for a “recovery” that will never happen, IMHO.[/quote]

The majority of all mortgages in California in the 2004-2006 bubble years where these sorts of interest only mortgages. Maybe they weren’t as prevalent in La Jolla, for example, but the fact is no area is completely isolated regardless of what the NAR/CAR liars say on TV.

[Anonymous]

It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).

[Anonymous]

It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).

[Anonymous]

It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).

[Anonymous]

It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).

[Author]

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