Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC built in the last 20 years on about 1/2 acre, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well and recently built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?[/quote]

If you can get that good of a deal today, then in 2012 I expect even more bargain priced houses to be available so yes I would still say there is downside risk (but not as much if you get a great deal obviously).

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well and recently built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?[/quote]

If you can get that good of a deal today, then in 2012 I expect even more bargain priced houses to be available so yes I would still say there is downside risk (but not as much if you get a great deal obviously).

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well and recently built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?[/quote]

If you can get that good of a deal today, then in 2012 I expect even more bargain priced houses to be available so yes I would still say there is downside risk (but not as much if you get a great deal obviously).

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well and recently built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?[/quote]

If you can get that good of a deal today, then in 2012 I expect even more bargain priced houses to be available so yes I would still say there is downside risk (but not as much if you get a great deal obviously).

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well and recently built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?[/quote]

If you can get that good of a deal today, then in 2012 I expect even more bargain priced houses to be available so yes I would still say there is downside risk (but not as much if you get a great deal obviously).

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone] So why risk it? [/quote]

Because eventually time catches up with everyone and you have to start living and stop waiting?

Of course for people who don’t buy into the “a person’s house is their castle” way of thinking and have no psychological need/desire to own the best home they’ll ever own in their lives (before they’re too old to enjoy it) or raise kids in said home and send them to the school of choice, this means nothing to them and will not be concerned.

For many of us, I suspect, life goes on and at some point you need to get on with it and plant your roots. And waiting for the ideal timing of the market is a false economy where the money you might save is not worth the time lost.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone] So why risk it? [/quote]

Because eventually time catches up with everyone and you have to start living and stop waiting?

Of course for people who don’t buy into the “a person’s house is their castle” way of thinking and have no psychological need/desire to own the best home they’ll ever own in their lives (before they’re too old to enjoy it) or raise kids in said home and send them to the school of choice, this means nothing to them and will not be concerned.

For many of us, I suspect, life goes on and at some point you need to get on with it and plant your roots. And waiting for the ideal timing of the market is a false economy where the money you might save is not worth the time lost.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone] So why risk it? [/quote]

Because eventually time catches up with everyone and you have to start living and stop waiting?

Of course for people who don’t buy into the “a person’s house is their castle” way of thinking and have no psychological need/desire to own the best home they’ll ever own in their lives (before they’re too old to enjoy it) or raise kids in said home and send them to the school of choice, this means nothing to them and will not be concerned.

For many of us, I suspect, life goes on and at some point you need to get on with it and plant your roots. And waiting for the ideal timing of the market is a false economy where the money you might save is not worth the time lost.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone] So why risk it? [/quote]

Because eventually time catches up with everyone and you have to start living and stop waiting?

Of course for people who don’t buy into the “a person’s house is their castle” way of thinking and have no psychological need/desire to own the best home they’ll ever own in their lives (before they’re too old to enjoy it) or raise kids in said home and send them to the school of choice, this means nothing to them and will not be concerned.

For many of us, I suspect, life goes on and at some point you need to get on with it and plant your roots. And waiting for the ideal timing of the market is a false economy where the money you might save is not worth the time lost.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone] So why risk it? [/quote]

Because eventually time catches up with everyone and you have to start living and stop waiting?

Of course for people who don’t buy into the “a person’s house is their castle” way of thinking and have no psychological need/desire to own the best home they’ll ever own in their lives (before they’re too old to enjoy it) or raise kids in said home and send them to the school of choice, this means nothing to them and will not be concerned.

For many of us, I suspect, life goes on and at some point you need to get on with it and plant your roots. And waiting for the ideal timing of the market is a false economy where the money you might save is not worth the time lost.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]

Seriously bearishgurl what planet are you living on? Many of these non-distress sellers have had there properties on and off the market for the last 2 years or more hoping that somebody would pay their inflated asking price. Well guess what, the real estate market and economy as a whole are in the shitter. Loans are harder to get, foreclosures are rampant and unemployment is at 12% (in CA). Simply stated, there is less money avaialble. Maybe folks are finally realizing that prices are on their way down again and they want to get out while they still can (with a profit).

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]

Seriously bearishgurl what planet are you living on? Many of these non-distress sellers have had there properties on and off the market for the last 2 years or more hoping that somebody would pay their inflated asking price. Well guess what, the real estate market and economy as a whole are in the shitter. Loans are harder to get, foreclosures are rampant and unemployment is at 12% (in CA). Simply stated, there is less money avaialble. Maybe folks are finally realizing that prices are on their way down again and they want to get out while they still can (with a profit).

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]

Seriously bearishgurl what planet are you living on? Many of these non-distress sellers have had there properties on and off the market for the last 2 years or more hoping that somebody would pay their inflated asking price. Well guess what, the real estate market and economy as a whole are in the shitter. Loans are harder to get, foreclosures are rampant and unemployment is at 12% (in CA). Simply stated, there is less money avaialble. Maybe folks are finally realizing that prices are on their way down again and they want to get out while they still can (with a profit).

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]

Seriously bearishgurl what planet are you living on? Many of these non-distress sellers have had there properties on and off the market for the last 2 years or more hoping that somebody would pay their inflated asking price. Well guess what, the real estate market and economy as a whole are in the shitter. Loans are harder to get, foreclosures are rampant and unemployment is at 12% (in CA). Simply stated, there is less money avaialble. Maybe folks are finally realizing that prices are on their way down again and they want to get out while they still can (with a profit).

[Author]

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