Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[scaredyclassic]

All of it should be unwound. But money is still cheap. And the strange current reality is that on nice places in the submarket we were tracking man they go into escrow fast. You have to see the listing on a computer rogeam get out there take a look and make an offer in four or five days if you want it. That’s a lot of filtering and attention span required. Sure the whole system might fall apart but if it doesn’t if money is still priced low if supply is constrained by hook or by crook this game if extend and pretend could just bd the new normal. I agree w both sides of the debate. It’s absurd to buy under the current regime. Bit it’s absurd to let that absurdity stop you from buying smethong if you really want it and it’s a good deal relative to the other fake absurdcrappy deals. There is no free market but life goes on. Maybe.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.

You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market![/quote]

Another dangerous fallacy. While you cant price “THE” buyers out of the market you are not “THE” buyers you are “A” buyer. Clearly “A” buyer can be priced out fo the market. Individuals act in their own self interest when buying a home not in the interest of the group.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.

You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market![/quote]

Another dangerous fallacy. While you cant price “THE” buyers out of the market you are not “THE” buyers you are “A” buyer. Clearly “A” buyer can be priced out fo the market. Individuals act in their own self interest when buying a home not in the interest of the group.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.

You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market![/quote]

Another dangerous fallacy. While you cant price “THE” buyers out of the market you are not “THE” buyers you are “A” buyer. Clearly “A” buyer can be priced out fo the market. Individuals act in their own self interest when buying a home not in the interest of the group.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.

You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market![/quote]

Another dangerous fallacy. While you cant price “THE” buyers out of the market you are not “THE” buyers you are “A” buyer. Clearly “A” buyer can be priced out fo the market. Individuals act in their own self interest when buying a home not in the interest of the group.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.

You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market![/quote]

Another dangerous fallacy. While you cant price “THE” buyers out of the market you are not “THE” buyers you are “A” buyer. Clearly “A” buyer can be priced out fo the market. Individuals act in their own self interest when buying a home not in the interest of the group.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Lets come up with terms of the bet. You say the downside exceeds the upside. I say this house easily has 15 to 20% upside over the price he paid in the next 2 years. For you to be correct it would have to drop in value by more than that. I’m feeling charitable so here’s my offer. If the house can be comped in December 2012 for 10% less that what he paid you win. I think that is more than fair. If you dont like that, make a counter proposal.

Because my client is not party to this matter between us. You couldnt bid on the house any way as it is already under contract.[/quote]

I would consider the bet if you gave me the info on the property. I don’t have enough information.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Lets come up with terms of the bet. You say the downside exceeds the upside. I say this house easily has 15 to 20% upside over the price he paid in the next 2 years. For you to be correct it would have to drop in value by more than that. I’m feeling charitable so here’s my offer. If the house can be comped in December 2012 for 10% less that what he paid you win. I think that is more than fair. If you dont like that, make a counter proposal.

Because my client is not party to this matter between us. You couldnt bid on the house any way as it is already under contract.[/quote]

I would consider the bet if you gave me the info on the property. I don’t have enough information.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Lets come up with terms of the bet. You say the downside exceeds the upside. I say this house easily has 15 to 20% upside over the price he paid in the next 2 years. For you to be correct it would have to drop in value by more than that. I’m feeling charitable so here’s my offer. If the house can be comped in December 2012 for 10% less that what he paid you win. I think that is more than fair. If you dont like that, make a counter proposal.

Because my client is not party to this matter between us. You couldnt bid on the house any way as it is already under contract.[/quote]

I would consider the bet if you gave me the info on the property. I don’t have enough information.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Lets come up with terms of the bet. You say the downside exceeds the upside. I say this house easily has 15 to 20% upside over the price he paid in the next 2 years. For you to be correct it would have to drop in value by more than that. I’m feeling charitable so here’s my offer. If the house can be comped in December 2012 for 10% less that what he paid you win. I think that is more than fair. If you dont like that, make a counter proposal.

Because my client is not party to this matter between us. You couldnt bid on the house any way as it is already under contract.[/quote]

I would consider the bet if you gave me the info on the property. I don’t have enough information.

[Author]

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