Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[Anonymous]

Can you give some specific examples of these “micro areas” where you think the bottom as passed?

[bearishgurl]

brian, in regards to your original post, I read the LA times article and I believe the bottom has not hit on those areas that have several/many owners who purchased or took back a property in foreclosure in the last 10 years who now find themselves NEEDING to sell.

In areas where not much has sold in the last ten years and/or few properties were “cashed-out” in a refi or “heloced,” the bottom has already passed or is currently passing. I believe all residential RE in CA (especially in non-tract areas) is situated in a “micro-market.” Each “micro-market” creates sales comps for itself, however far and few between.

Potential buyers who think a “stable area” (as referred to in the paragraph directly above) will cave in value in the coming years (from today’s prices) will experience a huge letdown stemming from missed opportunities in sitting on the sidelines waiting for miracles that will never happen.

And yes, I still consider myself a pragmatic “bear” :=]

[bearishgurl]

brian, in regards to your original post, I read the LA times article and I believe the bottom has not hit on those areas that have several/many owners who purchased or took back a property in foreclosure in the last 10 years who now find themselves NEEDING to sell.

In areas where not much has sold in the last ten years and/or few properties were “cashed-out” in a refi or “heloced,” the bottom has already passed or is currently passing. I believe all residential RE in CA (especially in non-tract areas) is situated in a “micro-market.” Each “micro-market” creates sales comps for itself, however far and few between.

Potential buyers who think a “stable area” (as referred to in the paragraph directly above) will cave in value in the coming years (from today’s prices) will experience a huge letdown stemming from missed opportunities in sitting on the sidelines waiting for miracles that will never happen.

And yes, I still consider myself a pragmatic “bear” :=]

[bearishgurl]

brian, in regards to your original post, I read the LA times article and I believe the bottom has not hit on those areas that have several/many owners who purchased or took back a property in foreclosure in the last 10 years who now find themselves NEEDING to sell.

In areas where not much has sold in the last ten years and/or few properties were “cashed-out” in a refi or “heloced,” the bottom has already passed or is currently passing. I believe all residential RE in CA (especially in non-tract areas) is situated in a “micro-market.” Each “micro-market” creates sales comps for itself, however far and few between.

Potential buyers who think a “stable area” (as referred to in the paragraph directly above) will cave in value in the coming years (from today’s prices) will experience a huge letdown stemming from missed opportunities in sitting on the sidelines waiting for miracles that will never happen.

And yes, I still consider myself a pragmatic “bear” :=]

[bearishgurl]

brian, in regards to your original post, I read the LA times article and I believe the bottom has not hit on those areas that have several/many owners who purchased or took back a property in foreclosure in the last 10 years who now find themselves NEEDING to sell.

In areas where not much has sold in the last ten years and/or few properties were “cashed-out” in a refi or “heloced,” the bottom has already passed or is currently passing. I believe all residential RE in CA (especially in non-tract areas) is situated in a “micro-market.” Each “micro-market” creates sales comps for itself, however far and few between.

Potential buyers who think a “stable area” (as referred to in the paragraph directly above) will cave in value in the coming years (from today’s prices) will experience a huge letdown stemming from missed opportunities in sitting on the sidelines waiting for miracles that will never happen.

And yes, I still consider myself a pragmatic “bear” :=]

[bearishgurl]

brian, in regards to your original post, I read the LA times article and I believe the bottom has not hit on those areas that have several/many owners who purchased or took back a property in foreclosure in the last 10 years who now find themselves NEEDING to sell.

In areas where not much has sold in the last ten years and/or few properties were “cashed-out” in a refi or “heloced,” the bottom has already passed or is currently passing. I believe all residential RE in CA (especially in non-tract areas) is situated in a “micro-market.” Each “micro-market” creates sales comps for itself, however far and few between.

Potential buyers who think a “stable area” (as referred to in the paragraph directly above) will cave in value in the coming years (from today’s prices) will experience a huge letdown stemming from missed opportunities in sitting on the sidelines waiting for miracles that will never happen.

And yes, I still consider myself a pragmatic “bear” :=]

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]My best friend had a 5/1 ARM that reset last year. He doesnt have any equity but isnt underwater either. He makes plenty of money, comes from a wealthy family and has plenty saved so he isnt worried at all. The reduction in his monthly payment was enough to make the monthly payments on his new BMW.[/quote]

Is this interest only? If so, how can he not be underwater? I am still waiting for an example of an interest only loan made during the bubble where the payment went down.[/quote]

Actually it is an interest only loan. He put 10% down and has since paid off his 10% second. HIs first is interest only and went down several hundred dollars a month when the 5/1 arm reset at a much lower rate. I keep telling him to go to a 30 yr fixed but his payment is so ridiculously low he cant see straight to doing it. His mortgage is less than 1/2 what his property would rent for.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]My best friend had a 5/1 ARM that reset last year. He doesnt have any equity but isnt underwater either. He makes plenty of money, comes from a wealthy family and has plenty saved so he isnt worried at all. The reduction in his monthly payment was enough to make the monthly payments on his new BMW.[/quote]

Is this interest only? If so, how can he not be underwater? I am still waiting for an example of an interest only loan made during the bubble where the payment went down.[/quote]

Actually it is an interest only loan. He put 10% down and has since paid off his 10% second. HIs first is interest only and went down several hundred dollars a month when the 5/1 arm reset at a much lower rate. I keep telling him to go to a 30 yr fixed but his payment is so ridiculously low he cant see straight to doing it. His mortgage is less than 1/2 what his property would rent for.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]My best friend had a 5/1 ARM that reset last year. He doesnt have any equity but isnt underwater either. He makes plenty of money, comes from a wealthy family and has plenty saved so he isnt worried at all. The reduction in his monthly payment was enough to make the monthly payments on his new BMW.[/quote]

Is this interest only? If so, how can he not be underwater? I am still waiting for an example of an interest only loan made during the bubble where the payment went down.[/quote]

Actually it is an interest only loan. He put 10% down and has since paid off his 10% second. HIs first is interest only and went down several hundred dollars a month when the 5/1 arm reset at a much lower rate. I keep telling him to go to a 30 yr fixed but his payment is so ridiculously low he cant see straight to doing it. His mortgage is less than 1/2 what his property would rent for.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]My best friend had a 5/1 ARM that reset last year. He doesnt have any equity but isnt underwater either. He makes plenty of money, comes from a wealthy family and has plenty saved so he isnt worried at all. The reduction in his monthly payment was enough to make the monthly payments on his new BMW.[/quote]

Is this interest only? If so, how can he not be underwater? I am still waiting for an example of an interest only loan made during the bubble where the payment went down.[/quote]

Actually it is an interest only loan. He put 10% down and has since paid off his 10% second. HIs first is interest only and went down several hundred dollars a month when the 5/1 arm reset at a much lower rate. I keep telling him to go to a 30 yr fixed but his payment is so ridiculously low he cant see straight to doing it. His mortgage is less than 1/2 what his property would rent for.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]My best friend had a 5/1 ARM that reset last year. He doesnt have any equity but isnt underwater either. He makes plenty of money, comes from a wealthy family and has plenty saved so he isnt worried at all. The reduction in his monthly payment was enough to make the monthly payments on his new BMW.[/quote]

Is this interest only? If so, how can he not be underwater? I am still waiting for an example of an interest only loan made during the bubble where the payment went down.[/quote]

Actually it is an interest only loan. He put 10% down and has since paid off his 10% second. HIs first is interest only and went down several hundred dollars a month when the 5/1 arm reset at a much lower rate. I keep telling him to go to a 30 yr fixed but his payment is so ridiculously low he cant see straight to doing it. His mortgage is less than 1/2 what his property would rent for.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=sdrealtor]ocrenter is perfect example. He bought his house at a time no one thought was a bottom but he found his own. The time to get what he got is past but he saw it and had the confidence to act because he was diligently watching the whole time.[/quote]

I could be very mistaken, since I don’t know where ocr bought, but something tells me it wasn’t a high-end luxury home along the coast. I think there’s still room to drop as the article alludes, especially the high-end. Already seeing some drops in 92106 that I didn’t see last year.[/quote]

I am not talking about general price levels dropping I am talking about finding oneself a remarkable property and a remarkable deal. I think ocr found one and thats all I say on that topic. They are out there now but very hard to find. If you are not looking for them constantly with laserlike focus you wont find one.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=sdrealtor]ocrenter is perfect example. He bought his house at a time no one thought was a bottom but he found his own. The time to get what he got is past but he saw it and had the confidence to act because he was diligently watching the whole time.[/quote]

I could be very mistaken, since I don’t know where ocr bought, but something tells me it wasn’t a high-end luxury home along the coast. I think there’s still room to drop as the article alludes, especially the high-end. Already seeing some drops in 92106 that I didn’t see last year.[/quote]

I am not talking about general price levels dropping I am talking about finding oneself a remarkable property and a remarkable deal. I think ocr found one and thats all I say on that topic. They are out there now but very hard to find. If you are not looking for them constantly with laserlike focus you wont find one.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=sdrealtor]ocrenter is perfect example. He bought his house at a time no one thought was a bottom but he found his own. The time to get what he got is past but he saw it and had the confidence to act because he was diligently watching the whole time.[/quote]

I could be very mistaken, since I don’t know where ocr bought, but something tells me it wasn’t a high-end luxury home along the coast. I think there’s still room to drop as the article alludes, especially the high-end. Already seeing some drops in 92106 that I didn’t see last year.[/quote]

I am not talking about general price levels dropping I am talking about finding oneself a remarkable property and a remarkable deal. I think ocr found one and thats all I say on that topic. They are out there now but very hard to find. If you are not looking for them constantly with laserlike focus you wont find one.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=sdrealtor]ocrenter is perfect example. He bought his house at a time no one thought was a bottom but he found his own. The time to get what he got is past but he saw it and had the confidence to act because he was diligently watching the whole time.[/quote]

I could be very mistaken, since I don’t know where ocr bought, but something tells me it wasn’t a high-end luxury home along the coast. I think there’s still room to drop as the article alludes, especially the high-end. Already seeing some drops in 92106 that I didn’t see last year.[/quote]

I am not talking about general price levels dropping I am talking about finding oneself a remarkable property and a remarkable deal. I think ocr found one and thats all I say on that topic. They are out there now but very hard to find. If you are not looking for them constantly with laserlike focus you wont find one.

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