Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[an]

dup

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.

[UCGal]

[quote=ocrenter]here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.
[/quote]

I agree with ocr on this. #1 is it.

[quote=briansd1][quote=deadzone]Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

I absolutely agree with you. I have noticed the same thing. As the article says:

Why the continuing funk? Analysts say the foreclosures and short sales that depressed home prices in general are finally catching up with the high-end market. The day of reckoning just took more time.

“Formerly affluent people who borrowed far too much money” are running out of staying power, Burns said.

[/quote]

Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.

[UCGal]

[quote=ocrenter]here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.
[/quote]

I agree with ocr on this. #1 is it.

[quote=briansd1][quote=deadzone]Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

I absolutely agree with you. I have noticed the same thing. As the article says:

Why the continuing funk? Analysts say the foreclosures and short sales that depressed home prices in general are finally catching up with the high-end market. The day of reckoning just took more time.

“Formerly affluent people who borrowed far too much money” are running out of staying power, Burns said.

[/quote]

Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.

[UCGal]

[quote=ocrenter]here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.
[/quote]

I agree with ocr on this. #1 is it.

[quote=briansd1][quote=deadzone]Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

I absolutely agree with you. I have noticed the same thing. As the article says:

Why the continuing funk? Analysts say the foreclosures and short sales that depressed home prices in general are finally catching up with the high-end market. The day of reckoning just took more time.

“Formerly affluent people who borrowed far too much money” are running out of staying power, Burns said.

[/quote]

Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.

[UCGal]

[quote=ocrenter]here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.
[/quote]

I agree with ocr on this. #1 is it.

[quote=briansd1][quote=deadzone]Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

I absolutely agree with you. I have noticed the same thing. As the article says:

Why the continuing funk? Analysts say the foreclosures and short sales that depressed home prices in general are finally catching up with the high-end market. The day of reckoning just took more time.

“Formerly affluent people who borrowed far too much money” are running out of staying power, Burns said.

[/quote]

Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.

[UCGal]

[quote=ocrenter]here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.
[/quote]

I agree with ocr on this. #1 is it.

[quote=briansd1][quote=deadzone]Although I look mainly at coastal S.D (Pt loma thru La Jolla), I am just asking for any example areas that meet your criteria because I quite frankly don’t believe any area has really hit bottom.

Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

I absolutely agree with you. I have noticed the same thing. As the article says:

Why the continuing funk? Analysts say the foreclosures and short sales that depressed home prices in general are finally catching up with the high-end market. The day of reckoning just took more time.

“Formerly affluent people who borrowed far too much money” are running out of staying power, Burns said.

[/quote]

Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.

[briansd1]

[quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.

[briansd1]

[quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.

[briansd1]

[quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.

[briansd1]

[quote=UCGal]
Here’s a 92109 example of what appeared to be a solid equity seller who wasn’t… Bought in 1995 for $760k. Listed in Oct 2009 for $3.85M, lowered the price in Oct 2010 to 3.39M. Foreclosed on yesterday.

Beautiful house (I’d live there.) But the owners appear to have pulled a lot of $$ out of it. (owed more than $2M) Then couldn’t get their wish price after more than a year on the market.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059233-92106

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsandNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/198/postid/114001/view/topic/Default.aspx

Even high end areas, even homes bought before the bubble, can be at risk.[/quote]

Thanks for a real world example. I’ve seen the same thing.

Long time holders of real estate in San Diego rode the gravy train of appreciation to wealth. But they are just ordinary people. Their staying power is limited and the fall in the value of their assets is hitting them hard.

[Author]

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