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temeculaguy
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Economists say 15% chance of recession in 2019. 60% in 2020[/quote]
What was the percentage that predicted the market would crash when trump was elected.
Like this genius, considered by the economist as one of the world’s most influential economist.
https://www.bu.edu/today/2017/bu-economist-predicts-stock-market-crash/
Add him to the list that includes AOC that makes my post grad work at BU that much more worthless. Well Bu did put the Dr. in fromt of MLK’s name so I guess it can weather the current crop.
How about Paul Krugman, is one of the 30%
Going back to just before and just after the election and seeing what the “economists” predicted just further moves the profession into fortune teller/weatherman territory. Strike that, Meteorologists have gotten much better in recent years, economists much worse.
ParticipantNice to see you HLS, many don’t know your expertise but it more than most here. Let’s just say I’m a fan. What do you think will happen, high appreciation, track inflation, normal 3% increases, stagnation or nominal decline? My theory is that liar loans and zero down neg am was the bane of the last cycle. Since you are closer to the pulse what is your prediction? I’m torn between “track inflation” or historical “normal” growth.
Participantall real estate is local, where are you looking? Are you selling? If you are moving up in the same area your risk is diminished either way the market goes. If you already sold and are trying to time the market, that can be very difficult. I only ask because 1.2 mil is a bit high for first time buyers.
Not all areas have recovered to their peaks but most have, however it’s been a decade so 30-50% is normal for 10-11 years at 3% to 5% a year. The last bubble was driven by liar loans and novice speculators without capital, I do not believe that is what is going on now. Depending on where it is, looking for a 10% nominal drop can be unrealistic, flat pricing is more realistic. Right now wages are rising but housing rose faster, since housing needs buyers sometimes it stalls out or is flat until buyers can catch up. Move up housing needs buyers to be able to sell in order to buy, so when the entry level struggles, it can trickle up.
I can tell you that when the great recession hit nd prices fell, they didn’t fall at the same percentages and at the same time. It hit harder and faster from the outside in, from the newer areas to the older and it barely touched some housing types and areas. The North Coastal areas of SD were almost immune and the inland exurbs saw 50% reductions, everything else seemed to fall in between.
The one thing that can shock the r/e market failed to materialize, if it comes back and somehow passes (SB 50) it will boost supply and probably hurt prices, but it’s not likely to affect the 7 figure market, just the lower end. That bill allows density increases and will take the zoning power away from city councils and planning commissions when planned housing is near transit stops. It would make it cheaper and easier to build apartments and condos. Older SFR neighborhoods could become a mix of craftsman’s next to 5 story apartment complexes with no parking requirements. I’m not sure it will ever pass or in what form but it would shake up the market in certain areas, but not this year.
ParticipantThanks Brian but I didn’t do what you are giving me credit for. I’m older than you. When I met my wife her kids were in their mid to late 20’s and none of her kids ever lived with us. They didn’t have a father in their life so they welcomed the advice and guidance which I enjoy giving. I got to walk my step daughter down the aisle at her wedding and got to be there when some of the grand kids were born. So it’s not quite as difficult as it sounds. Raising kids is a lot of work, being a step parent to a 30 year old is just mentoring.
Now being a Grandpa, that’s where it’s at! You should just marry someone with adult kids and skip the hard part and go straight to the fun stuff. I highly recommend being a grandparent (except for when they are two years old, they can be little hurricanes) but then again they do stuff that makes for great stories years later. We just pay the cleaning lady extra after they have visited, it’s amazing where cheerios and juice can end up after just a few days of a two year old in the house.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]For retirement I think no one would be looking for a multi-level condo IMO but what do I know.
My mothers Single level Condo on a golf course is Ideal for her. Walmart and Amazon show up at the door no problem (actually they show up no problem at my place and I am quite a ways out in the boonies, have not tried dinner dash yet).
She has not played much golf lately but her friends still meet up every morning.[/quote]
My cousin and his wife have a retirement condo at Laguna Woods. They remodeled it very nicely. They also own a big isolated house in Northern California. But the wife is social and she likes to be Laguna Woods, near her friends and family, even-though the condo is modest. Laguna Woods is very active with lots of social events for the residents. But, in my view, too organized and Disney like for old people.
The husband is kind of a loner so he prefers the house up north. Because the wife wears the pants so she decides where to go. So the house sits empty most of the time. What a waste! If it were me, I’d want to rent it out on Airbnb.
My cousin really wants family to visit and see his house. He’s especially proud of his new bathroom. But I told him jokingly (but seriously in mind) that if I visit up there, it will be once and only once. To me, anything too isolated should only be visited no more than 1 time.
The only place isolated that I visit is up the Hudson River from NYC. That’s where my relatives are buried and that where my dead mid-west cousin will be transferred for burial. I might even be interred there eventually, if they’d have me. Once my caretaker cousin is gone, the kids might visit the graves once in a blue moon. But in the end, the weeds will take over.[/quote]
Too late to take back my previous insult so I guess I’ll apologize instead. I have great pity for you Brian. Your urbanite elitism usually irks me but I am oddly saddened by it now. My wife and I are up to a combined 6 kids, 3 kid in laws and 11 grandkids, something I usually complain about because there is a birthday or a graduation seemingly every two weeks. Granted it is a blended family connected to blended families but your comments made me realize something. They all love coming to Temecula and that’s why I cannot downsize from my 5 bedroom 4 bath house (plus two pull out couches and a loft with cots. Because we get visitors almost weekly and usually they come in bunches. Only a few live in So Cal, some live out of state but I recently complained that we had people here 4 weekends in a row. The facetime calls with the grandkids come every night, so often that my nudist instincts have been thwarted and I have to wear pajamas at all times because as I walk in a room my wife is on a facetime call with a 4 year old who wants to talk with papa. Then it hits me, I’m the patriarch, the youngest graduated from college last weekend and when it’s all said and done my brood may be closer to 15 or 20 grandkids, encompass 4 races and speak 3 languages other than english. So when your next electric car has a longer range, you can come to my fair city because I think you will find the utopia you seek and the multicultural fantasy you dream of is alive and well, just so happens to be in the places you despise.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi] My electric car cannot make it to Temecula and back so i have good reason to decline.
[/quote]Thank god for the little things in life.
ParticipantGood for you Shoveler, Valencia is a great place to retire if you can afford it, I grew up there and while it is in LA county it doesn’t feel like it is. It has to feel good knowing your mom is in a nice town.
One thing I haven’t seen discussed is long term care insurance. I realize many companies have gotten out of the business and those who have remained have increased prices to unreasonable levels. But for those who got policies years ago, keep them in force. For everyone here, there may be help on the way. Currently most people liquidate and give inheritance away while living so they can get medicare to cover the cost, but most piggs are savers and want another option.
Ignore the stuff in this Forbes article about “middle income” and “median IRA,” I’m guessing if you are on this site your 401k balance will not likely be 50k at retirement.
I bought my LTC policy 20 years ago, in my low 30’s and no longer need to make payments. But I had to buy my wife’s policy in her late 40’s at 4x the price and have to pay forever, I’d welcome the tax deduction. My policy only pays $150 a day with an inflation adjustment (probably at $200 a day by now) so it wont pay for the lavish oldster place i have in mind but it will take the sting out of it. The govt should encourage LTC plans with tax incentives as without them, these people will be on the governemnt’s dime.
If incentives do happen, my advice is to take advantage of them asap and as young as possible. We all pay for fire insurance yet very few of us will have our houses burn down, yet all of us will get old and most will need care. *disclaimer-I do not sell insurance, but I do sleep better having lots of it. Perhaps I’m too optimistic the feds will approve of these proposed incentives, they seem to make too much sense for government approval.
May 16, 2019 at 12:37 AM in reply to: Does CA compete with other states to be the most costly? #812518ParticipantCA is a mess, she’s that crazy porn star girlfriend you know is bad for you but you just can’t seem to break up with. I can’t leave, I’m a weather wimp, bug averse plus my kids and grandkids are here. I’m a cheap uber ride to golf, casinos and wineries. I cannot find that in any no state income tax places. Wish I could, so I guess I’ll just have to deal with it.
Participantphaster, I guess I agree with the article, that 5 mil might be the tipping point where people do not feel constrained but 1 mil, no way. We all have our own strategies but hypothetically if a person wanted 15k monthly in perpetuity plus 3% inflation for retirement they would not feel wealthy without restraints but they might feel comfortable if they had between 1 and 3 mil. Depending on the website and the calculator you use, you need about 2 mil to make that happen. So I’m not surprised 70% of those with 1 mil and up don’t feel wealthy without spending constraints. Plus most people who save more than 1 mil did so with constraints that they will not readily part with despite the number on their statement.
ParticipantYou are doing it again, put the China pom poms away brian. BTW, on your Asia travels don’t you avoid connecting flights in China like I do because they censor your internet on your phone. Wrong place to hitch your wagon, let this one play itself out.
ParticipantWow FLU, That was eye opening. I’m all in, what shoveler and myriad said, plus two parts of what FLU said. Now my wife is going to lose her mind checking all her lancome cosmetics to see of there are chinese political prisoners in them, we don’t have enough vallium for her to get through this. I pity the Lancome girl at Macy’s if she finds a connection. She’s already stressing about Sun Bear liver bile and Dogs being tortured to make the meat tender, I had to hear it at dinner tonight, As soon as I hear Richard Attenbourough’s voice on a nature show I take the remote.
At least Brian took the bait on my Hilary comment and confirmed he isn’t a chinabot. Therein lies the problem Brian, you aren’t a citizen of the world, you have a blue passport and all the virtue signalling won’t save you from becoming make-up in China if you were a citizen of China and treated them as you do the USA. That’s why freedom wins, because we don’t turn our Brian into Make-up, we just get frustrated with his progressive WTO drivel, then have a glass of wine and go to bed.
ParticipantBrian you have posted pro-china comments on most of the threads in the top active threads, It’s kinda suspicious. Maybe you’re not a chinabot, just a trump hater looking to root against your country for political reasons. Your posts went pretty silent post Mueller for a few days, so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are just a partisan.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-options-idUSKCN1SL0OU
I say bring it, China is out of ammo in this trade war. They have been gaming the system for too long and it’s time to find some balance. Red and Blue states stand to benefit from a better trade deal, actually the US and China will both benefit, however the communist party will lose some ground in China. Just checked MSNBC’s homepage, no mention of the trade war. Lots on congresswomen Omar and AOC, lot’s of other stuff but even they are shying away from the China trade story. Maybe you aren’t getting the e-mail with the talking points but stay away from this because it is a non partisan issue and will likely end up being a trump win so best to be silent on it or you are not going to get invited to the progressive parties.
Let’s not even talk about China and it’s dealings with Taiwan, Tibet, Venezuela, animal cruelty and endangered animals being killed for Chinese medicine, the South China Sea. If anyone needs a “chin check” it’s China.
If Hilary had won she’d be doing the same thing, it was on the to do list regardless of party. China didn’t bring a dish to the potluck but wants to take the leftovers, someone had to say something.
ParticipantMy vote is on autonomous electric cars and solar. While I have not taken the plunge on EV or Solar I’m watching both carefully and have a 3-5 year range in which I’ll probably do both. It is a tricky math question to determine rooftop solar needs without knowing the draw of the car(s). Autonomous is something I’m somewhat at the mercy of technology and the main benefit of traffic relief depends on mass acceptance, so that may come a little later but I see it as the people’s choice here. Ultimately it should eliminate traffic when fully implemented. Rail and busses will never work here unless something like a hyperloop with individual cabins can be developed. I’ve been on mass transit in many cities in the US and abroad and it will never work here because of our liberties, freedoms and rights. The homeless and mentally ill are not/rarely forcibly institutionalized here and I believe never will be again. It’s trending towards addicts not being incarcerated either. Those are your mass transit fellow riders. Plus germ phobia seems to get worse every year, people wipe down their shopping carts nowadays, at medical offices and hospitals people wear medical masks as self protection as opposed to the sick wearing them to prevent contagion. Sharing space/seats/air will not increase, it will decrease. It hasn’t hit air travel due to the costs being prohibitive for most and the live attendants instilling order. This isn’t a personal preference, it’s an observation.
I believe a friend of mine summed it up best when I told him that if we get autonomous cars you can drive to work and while at work your car can work as a driverless uber until you need to go home. Once you get home, it can go to work while you sleep. His response was, “no thanks, I don’t need some strangers boogers under my seat or some knuckleheads unwashed hands on my steering wheel after he scratched his balls, let alone 50 of them a day. I also don’t share my toothbrush or underwear while I’m not using them”
Home solar, EV cars and autonomous driving solves all the problems with mass transit at least within a few hundred miles and air can handle the long distances.
ParticipantHis resume is impressive and he checks most of the democratic boxes. I perused his election website and can’t find much policy, just platitudes. I’m glad he surpassed Beto and Kamila, but he has a steep hill to climb to Bernie and Biden for the nomination and until he takes policy positions he’s got Beto’s “all hat and no cattle” problem. His opponents will press him on policy as the debates whittle down the field. It may not be your experience but “progressive”and “Socialist” is a negative in the general election. My guess at this point, Biden vs Trump, sorta final answer unless Michelle Obama enters the race. Schultz is the wildcard, he speaks to independents and those not entrenched, I certainly liked what he had to say, but I voted for Perot so my opinion should be summarily ignored.
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