[sdrealtor]

Ok Edgar. How much satisfaction are you going to get if hardworking families who just wanted homes for their families lose their asses because that is who would get hit hardest?

Betting window remains open

And make sure you get the rent paid on time. Landlords can evict deadbeats and raise rents

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.

This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.[/quote]
The real question is, did you benefited from the crash (buying PUTs or shorting the stocks)? If you didn’t, did you benefited from the 2008 bounce back? If you didn’t, will you be able to recognize the bottom and take advantage of the next run up?[/quote]

Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).

Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]

If you didn’t exit those shorts in 07 and 08 you didn’t make a lot of money. You make it when you actually sell which was 09 and made less by your own admission.

And no comment about this year making money. So I guess it’s safe to assume you did not and are just cheering for bad things for others as usual.

Got In and out of nail long agoand made money by actually selling and realizing those gains. That’s how it works! You don’t seem to understand this either Edgar

[sdrealtor]

Yup awful inaccurate data. Has median in my zip was at 1.125m two years ago and 1.66m now. Two years ago my house was pretty much that median priced home at around 1.125m. Today it’s $2m plus not anywhere close to 1.66m. That’s like for like.

[sdrealtor]

On other thing that could skew in beach areas is for decades the prime homes have been held and sales rare. In the last year I have seen more spectacular pieces of beach properties sold along the entire coast of SD County. Before we hit these price levels those homes rarely if ever came up but now I see them regularly. Thats a compositional change too

[sdrealtor]

All good points too and examples of why these published stats are to be taken with a grain of salt. To really understand one needs to look at like for like sales.

Like this

In first 4 months of 2020 there were 3 sales of 2/2 900 sq ft model in the Plaza on Diamond St in PB. They were 470K, 495K and 495K.

This year those same months there is one sale at 615K. It was listed at 640K and sat on market for 3 months so price was fully vetted by market. I know I could find plenty of examples just like that all over PB nowhere close to 92% increase. PB is somewhere that has had lots of beach flips and teardown new builds

I do this for a living and follow things closely. No matter what anyone chooses to write about the highest appreciation I have seen is along the North County Coast and in RB/4S area where its also easiest to prove with tract homes that sell like for like.

Or if you want to choose a condo there’s one about to close in La Costa near a family member. Two years ago similar unit sold for 430. Six months ago 520K. Now 750K. Thats 75% in 2 years and 45% in 6 months. Like for like

[sdrealtor]

Id take this all with a grain of salt because quite often these things represent a change in the mix rather than an increase in value of of each housing unit by said amount.

Case in point. Three years ago I sold a place in the heart of North Park for around $425. Today it would sell for at most $650K which is about 50% in 3 years rather than the reported 83% in 2 years.

Another case in point is the 92010 market which reported at 69% gain in 2 years. Until the last decade, most of the housing stock was from the 80’s with just a little from early 2000’s. Until the last 2-3 years most sales were the older housing stock. Between 2012 and 2015 The Foothills went in bringing bigger and newer homes that didnt exist there. Then between 2017/2019 high end homes hit 92010 in Robertson Ranch. Its only been the last couple years that these homes starting hitting the market en masse especially the RR which could go into the 3M range for the right house now.

So part is appreciation but a lot can be a change of mix also

[sdrealtor]

You’re welcome. Im just trying to follow in a way to identify when changes happen in the market sooner than later rather than identifying long term trends or comparing to prior years

[sdrealtor]

Redfin is a different animal. Like most discount brokerages they depend upon a high volume high velocity market which we’ve had for a decade. In the long run they were bound to struggle with less wanting to sell their homes and now a cooling market.

As with all players in real estate brokerage their fate is not necessarily a straight line connection to the real estate values. They could do great in a high volume falling market while getting crushed in a low volume booming market. But of course our pal doesnt understand how any of this works.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]Redfin really crapping the bed now, under $9, from all time high over $90. Looks like they may win the race to zero. Really wish I had bought Puts on them, that was a big miss for me, might have been the opportunity of a lifetime.

But don’t worry, housing market will be fine. Carry on.[/quote]

Dont worry someone did. Ive been short on Compass since their IPO a year ago. Understanding the actual economics of real estate brokerages I took one look at all their website and shook my head. I knew they would never make it big as a public company on the route they were taking. I saw hundreds of bios for software engineers proudly displayed with FAANG resumes. I have many as clients, understand what they get paid and that a real estate brokerage could never support that. They had to be living off VC money they could never repay.

I told every realtor friend who went to enjoy the incredible support they provide while they could but to stay away from the stock as it would be under $5 within a year no matter what happens with the stock market. It got there even faster than I expected and probably should cover soon. I also said be careful not to put Coldwell Banker and Berkshire out of business as they are gonna need someone like Realogy to bail them out and acquire them in a few years 🙂

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdduuuude]Boy, I sure wish I had a graph of all this.

A word is worth a millipicture, after all.[/quote]

I do, I have the data linked to graphs. I just think of this more as a weekly snapshot as opposed to more longitudinal study which Rich does such a good job with. Im more interested in looking for actionable inflection points as soon as they arrive then understanding long term trends. I knda like it this way. Happy to email you source data with linked graphs

[sdrealtor]

Baby coming soon
Such a bundle of pure joy!
Start college fund now

[sdrealtor]

Another typo last week as inventory was 54 not 42,

New listings 22 (29) – this is usually one of the hishest counts each year along with the week after schools let out.

New Pendings of 27 (33) – not as high as expected but neither were new listings. Next two weeks are usually two of the best for sellers most years with relo buyers pounding the streets in hopes of a Summer move.

Thats -5

Closed sales at 19 –

Total houses for sale 54 (59) with median of $2.195M ($1.95M)

Inventory stayed flat this week. Listings felt low this week and while pendings bumped up nicely i would have expected more. As expected, I think this is a bit of a bellweather with sluggish supply and slowing demand. The next month should be solid but after it is setting up to be a bit of stalemate. Will we see a stand off? For now it is looking that way but only time will tell

[sdrealtor]

SEttling into balance continues.

New listings 7 (10) – would like to see closer to 10+

New Pendings of 11 (124) – lots more choices and as expected an uptick this week

Closed sales at 5 (6) –

Inventory at 19 with median of 999K. Last year it was 11 with median of 849K.

We saw the double digit pendings I set as benchmark we should see indicating market still strong. Inventory up over last year but same as last week/around where it sat most of last Summer. Whats on the market is either just listed or a tad too high and sitting.

The market looks like it should chug along here like this for another month or two. Once we get to late June I expect things to slow down more. For now the crazy bidding wars are over. Houses sell at or around asking in most cases as long as priced at recent comparable sales. It feels like a nice stable market here for now.

[sdrealtor]

There is no directly competing supply for a product like this. Its an entirely new category of housing in this area and location for which there will be plenty of demand which is why zero impact

[sdrealtor]

Poster asked about South Carlsbad not OB. Stick to what you know. Zero impact. If anything that Area of Ponto was/is a bit blighted. Cleaning it up and bringing in high end housing is a positive for market

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