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[Anonymous]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=deadzone]Just pay attention to the Fed balance sheet (which didn’t exist before 2009 by the way).[/quote]

This is FALSE.

Although the Fed balance sheet expanded dramatically after 2008 it has existed for decades before that.[/quote]

It was negligible before 2009. When before 2009 was the Fed directly purchasing MBS? Relatively new phenomenon.

[Anonymous]

I didn’t have to exit my shorts in 2008. I held Puts for New Century, Accredited Lending and Countryfried among others. Many of these literally went to 0. My puts expired and were exercised for in some cases over 1000% gains. I destroyed that market Fuck you very much.

We’ve already established that I am not as aggressive shorting this time. And like AN, I missed the window of buying Puts on Zoom, Peleton, Redfin, etc. But yes I am currently profiting and going to continue to profit from this crash. I told you a while back I am shorting homebuilders and that is and will continue to be a profitable trade. But none of those guys are going to 0.

I am also going to get great satisfaction in seeing all the jerkoffs that got “rich” during the Pandemic lose their asses.

[sdrealtor]

Ok Edgar. How much satisfaction are you going to get if hardworking families who just wanted homes for their families lose their asses because that is who would get hit hardest?

Betting window remains open

And make sure you get the rent paid on time. Landlords can evict deadbeats and raise rents

[an]

Yep. It was the middle class that was hurt the most in the last crash. It was the wealthy that benefited the most from the last bounce back. I expect the same this time around.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone][quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=deadzone]Just pay attention to the Fed balance sheet (which didn’t exist before 2009 by the way).[/quote]

This is FALSE.

Although the Fed balance sheet expanded dramatically after 2008 it has existed for decades before that.[/quote]

It was negligible before 2009. When before 2009 was the Fed directly purchasing MBS? Relatively new phenomenon.[/quote]

I wouldn’t consider $750 Billion negligible.

Agree that MBS purchases were a new lever pulled and that Fed assets have expanded significantly… from about 7-8% of GDP in 2007 to over 30% today. But your original implication that they had no history of assets before 2008 was false and misleading. In fact the Fed has at least a 70-year history of asset purchases.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor] How much satisfaction are you going to get if hardworking families who just wanted homes for their families lose their asses because that is who would get hit hardest?
[/quote]

If these “hardworking families” over levered themselves to purchase an overpriced house with a mountain of debt, then they took the risk on themselves. But in reality, getting foreclosed on just means they can live rent free for 2+ years, just like the last crash. It’s not the end of the world by any means.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an]Yep. It was the middle class that was hurt the most in the last crash. It was the wealthy that benefited the most from the last bounce back. I expect the same this time around.[/quote]

The wealthy class were being destroyed in the last crash until the Fed and Paulsen, run by Wall St. Bankers, came to the rescue with endless bailouts and QE under the propaganda of “averting depression” and “too big to fail”. Obviously this is likely to happen again.

[Coronita]

So my RSU vests 50% today..!!!!
Yeah!!! I had to keep my shares anyway for 6months being an insider, unless I quit, but the great part now is my upfront tax bill will be a lot lower heh heh.

The way RSU stock grants work for a publicly traded company is that the day RSU stocks are granted you get taxed at ordinary income the total shares * fmv day of grant…then that serves as your cost basis.. So if you sell the RSU at a price above today’s price , that’s taxed as capital gains…and if you sell below today’s price, that counts as a capital loss.

The problem is if you have lots of shares, you can potentially pay a lot of ordinary income taxes on the shares you vested , but if you sell when the price is lower you could end up being limited to the capital loss you can report to offset the ordinary income from the shares…because the IRS limits capital losses to $3000/year before you carry over your losses to the following years.

Despite our earnings being well above projected and or forecast above too, the company stock hasnt moved due to all the concerns… That’s great. So my today’s taxable amount as ordinary income will be low..and when/if I hold them long enough..hopefully by then it will be long term capital gains of 20%….

Thank God I don’t need the money…
Tenants and rent make great inflation adjusted pensions. And suddenly the crypto and meme stock owners are all so quiet..ha ha ha.

Now where do I pick up some discounted assets …hmmm….

[Coronita]

Also, just playing with a little play money….Bought an additional 888 shares of TSM at 86.10 today…because I’m bored sitting in cash.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]Yep. It was the middle class that was hurt the most in the last crash. It was the wealthy that benefited the most from the last bounce back. I expect the same this time around.[/quote]

The wealthy class were being destroyed in the last crash until the Fed and Paulsen, run by Wall St. Bankers, came to the rescue with endless bailouts and QE under the propaganda of “averting depression” and “too big to fail”. Obviously this is likely to happen again.[/quote]

I grew up around a lot of the wealthy class and they still include many of my closest friends. The last crash had minimal impact on their lives. Their kids that went to expensive private schools, they always had new expensive cars, took regular vacations, ate at the finest restaurants and golfed regularly at multiple country clubs they are members of. When things bounce back they only made more money. Yet another thing you don’t understand how it works

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] How much satisfaction are you going to get if hardworking families who just wanted homes for their families lose their asses because that is who would get hit hardest?
[/quote]

If these “hardworking families” over levered themselves to purchase an overpriced house with a mountain of debt, then they took the risk on themselves. But in reality, getting foreclosed on just means they can live rent free for 2+ years, just like the last crash. It’s not the end of the world by any means.[/quote]

I know it’s a foreign concept to you but some people have integrity. Actually a lot of people. That describes most of the people in my life and they simply don’t just walk away from debts that they promised to repay. Their word means something to them as it does to me. I would never walk away from a debt, it’s in my DNA not to. It’sobvious you are filled with bitterness, envy and hatred. For most people real estate has nothing to do with an investment but rather a home for their families. A nice safe place to live and raise their family. They don’t buy homes to get rich. Most people are welcome in my home even those i disagree with as long as they have integrity and are kind of heart. That doesn’t include vindictive bitter folks and i hope in real life you actually have some integrity Edgar

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]Yep. It was the middle class that was hurt the most in the last crash. It was the wealthy that benefited the most from the last bounce back. I expect the same this time around.[/quote]

The wealthy class were being destroyed in the last crash until the Fed and Paulsen, run by Wall St. Bankers, came to the rescue with endless bailouts and QE under the propaganda of “averting depression” and “too big to fail”. Obviously this is likely to happen again.[/quote]
So were the young families who lost their first home. The difference between them and the wealthy is, the wealthy still have plenty of $ so they were able to jump back in in force at the bottom and now they have a lot more money than they did in 2006-2007. However, those middle class family who had to short sale are set back by many years.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]

If these “hardworking families” over levered themselves to purchase an overpriced house with a mountain of debt, then they took the risk on themselves. But in reality, getting foreclosed on just means they can live rent free for 2+ years, just like the last crash. It’s not the end of the world by any means.[/quote]

I think you suffer from the same thing that previously spdrun (who seems a lot more refined now post-covid, kudos) and bearishgurl(who disappeared). You have an ax to grind from anyone who put the time and energy to make a big purchase, something that you kept justifying for 20+ years was “too expensive” or out of reach for you financially and you now feel really left out, expecially given that you’ve either spent 20+ years paying a landlord and have nothing to show for OR you’re living in a home owned by a family member for little to no cost.

It’s much more convenient to lump anyone that bought under the false idea that they are all financially irresponsible, and you’re looking for big financial calamity to prove your point. You gloss over the majority of homeowners that while not be such a scrooge or penny-pincher do work hard and follow/exercise some sort of financial goal/plan to achieve those goals, and execute on those plans, which takes a lot more effort than sitting on the sideline for the past 20 + years playing sideline financial coach. This is especially true for people that aren’t a bachelor and have a spouse and kid to think about, and what they want, unless they happen to be an un-opinionated that just worships one’s feet and takes anything one says verbatim as the gospel.

Again, rooted in your message is you feel left out and want to be made whole. I’m not worried about all these folks, because imho, majority of these buyers are locked into ridiculous loan rates for 30 years, while lending standards are still pretty tight, which means not the same stated income alt-a liar loans… And this is the 21st century. Many families here have 2 working adults, not one that is confined to domestic duties (and in some cases in my spheres the husband is the one that is the deadbeat and stays at home.) Dual income families, that provide a safety cushion in case there is 1 job loss.. Meanwhile, when it’s all said and done, I’m pretty confident you won’t materially change and you’ll still not be a homeowner even if we have a correction. You’ll never take the risk on anything larger than a few shares of stock, and the only way you would be pushed into home ownership is if you have no choice and your spouse gives you an ultimatum. There’s nothing wrong with not wanting to own a house, because it is a big purchase. But just call it for what it is and stop using other reasons for justifying your personal decisions. No different than EconProf trying to claim he moved to Utah because he hates California. Please, he moved because his kids are there.

Bookmarked.

[Coronita]

Id even say that it’s going to be pretty hard to control inflation. Imho, it seems the primary reason why we have high inflation has a lot more to do with covid + Ukraine war and as a result, the global economy that historically kept prices for good and services lower, is now broken…. The global supply chain was already pretty wacked from covid… Now, we have an even worse supply chain issue from also energy disruptions due to ukraine.

Monetary policy I don’t think will fix that problem and monetary policy wasn’t the original source of high inflation imho. It was the supply chain issue that first happened due to covid and then exacerbated by the ukraine war with now a supply chain issue with energy…

In fact, imho I think by tightening the money supply it’s going to make things a lot worse.

Because while tightening the money supply might shrink and reign in the US economy, I still think we will have persistent higher levels of inflation so long as the global supply chain is wacked and the war persists that wacks the energy supply chain too because simply put those factories and energy supplies aren’t meeting demand due to constraints on the producer side. And so long as supply remains constrained, higher demand side is going to keep prices high.

Take a look at the semiconductor companies for instance. Their earnings could have been better. Its not like there isn’t enough demand for chips, like TSM.. It’s because they can’t produce fast enough, partly due to the broken supply chain and shutdowns. Seems like it would take a lot to cool off that demand.

[Coronita]

[quote=dz]

The wealthy class were being destroyed in the last crash until the Fed and Paulsen, run by Wall St. Bankers, came to the rescue with endless bailouts and QE under the propaganda of “averting depression” and “too big to fail”. Obviously this is likely to happen again.[/quote]

Please. The wealthy class were hardly being destroyed.

Someone might have “lost $100k”, but that might mean 2% less on their total net worth.

That’s different from someone that loses $50k when their total net worth is say $200k.

And I’m dealing with this at all sorts of levels with friends and family and myself. Everyone is going like whoa as me, “I’m down $100-150k from peak”, but in perspective, it’s like 2-3% of their person’s total net worth..Hardly a big deal or financially devastating for them…

Wealthy people might lose money that in absolutely numbers look large for people that are not at that financial level. But it’s chump change, and those people typically clean house in a downturn because they have a lot more financial reserves to pick up cheaper assets when everyone else that is middle class is just scraping by.

Just look at what’s going on now. Inflation is killing middle class that haven’t secured their housing/transportation/etc costs. Higher rent costs, higher food costs, and now more of these worker bees have to return to work, higher transportation costs…And their wages are not growing nearly as fast…

Richer people can buy a house/property more easily than people that need to take out a loan. Richer people can buy an electric car or chances are aren’t tied to a daily job or have a better job that is more likely to be remote friendly. If mortgage rates rise and even if house prices fall, and other cost of living rises, your average middle class counting on a paycheck is no more prepared to buy property assets, in fact it’s probably harder for them because access to loaned money isn’t as easily available.

Rich people who can switch from cheap credit loans to cash still have no issues. And with rising inflation, they also clean house with rising rent costs as a landlord…

Inflation + tighter borrowing terms = Perfect storm for rich to get richer in the long run while middle class gets left behind scrapping by.

Also, most of the people that will get crushed are the novice gamblers of meme stock and crypto that was hoping for that one hit one wonder get rich quick trade….They will be crushed and wiped out. But they weren’t really in the “rich” class to begin with. It’s not like they had a long term DRIP style investment plan to begin with and spend decades building millions, despite what those of us that have been trying to warn them about…

Those “financial guru” instagram feed I subscribe to for shits and giggles sure have gone silent recently….But they’ll make excellent tenants 🙂

[Author]

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