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[Anonymous]

Redfin really crapping the bed now, under $9, from all time high over $90. Looks like they may win the race to zero. Really wish I had bought Puts on them, that was a big miss for me, might have been the opportunity of a lifetime.

But don’t worry, housing market will be fine. Carry on.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Redfin really crapping the bed now, under $9, from all time high over $90. Looks like they may win the race to zero. Really wish I had bought Puts on them, that was a big miss for me, might have been the opportunity of a lifetime.

But don’t worry, housing market will be fine. Carry on.[/quote]
Yep, I missed that opportunity of a lifetime too. Should have loaded up on PUTs. But now that these stocks are 10% of their all time high, I’m seeing a 2008 level of opportunity of a lifetime to go long as well. I’m ready this time. Imagine buying Apple at $6/share in 2008.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]Redfin really crapping the bed now, under $9, from all time high over $90. Looks like they may win the race to zero. Really wish I had bought Puts on them, that was a big miss for me, might have been the opportunity of a lifetime.

But don’t worry, housing market will be fine. Carry on.[/quote]

Dont worry someone did. Ive been short on Compass since their IPO a year ago. Understanding the actual economics of real estate brokerages I took one look at all their website and shook my head. I knew they would never make it big as a public company on the route they were taking. I saw hundreds of bios for software engineers proudly displayed with FAANG resumes. I have many as clients, understand what they get paid and that a real estate brokerage could never support that. They had to be living off VC money they could never repay.

I told every realtor friend who went to enjoy the incredible support they provide while they could but to stay away from the stock as it would be under $5 within a year no matter what happens with the stock market. It got there even faster than I expected and probably should cover soon. I also said be careful not to put Coldwell Banker and Berkshire out of business as they are gonna need someone like Realogy to bail them out and acquire them in a few years 🙂

[sdrealtor]

Redfin is a different animal. Like most discount brokerages they depend upon a high volume high velocity market which we’ve had for a decade. In the long run they were bound to struggle with less wanting to sell their homes and now a cooling market.

As with all players in real estate brokerage their fate is not necessarily a straight line connection to the real estate values. They could do great in a high volume falling market while getting crushed in a low volume booming market. But of course our pal doesnt understand how any of this works.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Redfin really crapping the bed now, under $9, from all time high over $90. Looks like they may win the race to zero. Really wish I had bought Puts on them, that was a big miss for me, might have been the opportunity of a lifetime.

But don’t worry, housing market will be fine. Carry on.[/quote]
Yep, I missed that opportunity of a lifetime too. Should have loaded up on PUTs. But now that these stocks are 10% of their all time high, I’m seeing a 2008 level of opportunity of a lifetime to go long as well. I’m ready this time. Imagine buying Apple at $6/share in 2008.[/quote]

Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.

This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.

[Coronita]

Back on topic…

“Apple loses director of machine learning over its office return policy”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/an-apple-machine-learning-director-resigned-over-its-office-return-policy-115040691.html

The funny part of this is the remote work policy is going to promote inequality in the work force.

Those important enough, specifically in the leadership band, will be able to do whatever the heck they want since companies will end up losing them to competitors….. Workerbees at the bottom that can’t easily move around job to job will be stuck with whatever policy is at the company since they might be more replaceable.

[Coronita]

Man inflation is pretty serious…Good thing tenants are great inflation hedges.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.

This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.[/quote]
The real question is, did you benefited from the crash (buying PUTs or shorting the stocks)? If you didn’t, did you benefited from the 2008 bounce back? If you didn’t, will you be able to recognize the bottom and take advantage of the next run up?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.

This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.[/quote]
The real question is, did you benefited from the crash (buying PUTs or shorting the stocks)? If you didn’t, did you benefited from the 2008 bounce back? If you didn’t, will you be able to recognize the bottom and take advantage of the next run up?[/quote]

Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).

Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Man inflation is pretty serious…Good thing tenants are great inflation hedges.[/quote]

As long as they have jobs. A lot of jobs are going to be wiped out in the next year or two.

[Anonymous]

By the way, I hope you guys have exited your NAIL positions by now, or perhaps you were just joking about buying it. NAIL is going backwards fast. Homebuilders have actually been holding up relatively better than other areas of the market up to now, but their day of reckoning is coming.

Rising interest rates and recessions are not a good environment for selling homes. That is obvious.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]
Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).

Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]
If it’s that predictable, then you’d be sitting with tens to hundreds of millions in the bank already. You might have missed the bottom in 2009, but if you leveraged to the hilt and buy a ton of real estate in 2009, you’d be sitting pretty. You’d then sell all those houses 6 months ago and take the tens of millions that you made and shorted the market by buying a TON of PUTs. By now, you’d have to have at least a few hundred million if not a billion.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]
Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).

Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]
If it’s that predictable, then you’d be sitting with tens to hundreds of millions in the bank already. You might have missed the bottom in 2009, but if you leveraged to the hilt and buy a ton of real estate in 2009, you’d be sitting pretty. You’d then sell all those houses 6 months ago and take the tens of millions that you made and shorted the market by buying a TON of PUTs. By now, you’d have to have at least a few hundred million if not a billion.[/quote]

I said the future turning point is predictable from here. Just follow the Fed. Stay short or cash while the Fed tightens. Then go long when they restart QE. Simple as that. This wasn’t clear to me in 2009, I had no idea that the Fed was capable of re-inflating the bubble so quickly and so powerfully. QE was an experimental unknown, it was expected by many economists that this would create massive inflation which is why I bought Gold instead of investing in the stock market. Lesson learned. Not that the gold was a bad investment, but go long all asset classes when the Fed prints. Just pay attention to the Fed balance sheet (which didn’t exist before 2009 by the way).

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]Just pay attention to the Fed balance sheet (which didn’t exist before 2009 by the way).[/quote]

This is FALSE.

Although the Fed balance sheet expanded dramatically after 2008 it has existed for decades before that.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.

This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.[/quote]
The real question is, did you benefited from the crash (buying PUTs or shorting the stocks)? If you didn’t, did you benefited from the 2008 bounce back? If you didn’t, will you be able to recognize the bottom and take advantage of the next run up?[/quote]

Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).

Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]

If you didn’t exit those shorts in 07 and 08 you didn’t make a lot of money. You make it when you actually sell which was 09 and made less by your own admission.

And no comment about this year making money. So I guess it’s safe to assume you did not and are just cheering for bad things for others as usual.

Got In and out of nail long agoand made money by actually selling and realizing those gains. That’s how it works! You don’t seem to understand this either Edgar

[Author]

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