North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

Gonna throw out a number. Should see around 30+ new pendings on update next Tuesday

[limkotir]

[quote=sdrealtor]Gonna throw out a number. Should see around 30+ new pendings on update next Tuesday[/quote]

Look forward to your weekly updates on the tracked zip areas and color commentary!

[sdrealtor]

Another typo last week as inventory was 54 not 42,

New listings 22 (29) – this is usually one of the hishest counts each year along with the week after schools let out.

New Pendings of 27 (33) – not as high as expected but neither were new listings. Next two weeks are usually two of the best for sellers most years with relo buyers pounding the streets in hopes of a Summer move.

Thats -5

Closed sales at 19 –

Total houses for sale 54 (59) with median of $2.195M ($1.95M)

Inventory stayed flat this week. Listings felt low this week and while pendings bumped up nicely i would have expected more. As expected, I think this is a bit of a bellweather with sluggish supply and slowing demand. The next month should be solid but after it is setting up to be a bit of stalemate. Will we see a stand off? For now it is looking that way but only time will tell

[sdduuuude]

Boy, I sure wish I had a graph of all this.

A word is worth a millipicture, after all.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdduuuude]Boy, I sure wish I had a graph of all this.

A word is worth a millipicture, after all.[/quote]

I do, I have the data linked to graphs. I just think of this more as a weekly snapshot as opposed to more longitudinal study which Rich does such a good job with. Im more interested in looking for actionable inflection points as soon as they arrive then understanding long term trends. I knda like it this way. Happy to email you source data with linked graphs

[Honeybadger]

Your weekly updates are excellent, thanks for compiling them!

[sdrealtor]

You’re welcome. Im just trying to follow in a way to identify when changes happen in the market sooner than later rather than identifying long term trends or comparing to prior years

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdduuuude]Boy, I sure wish I had a graph of all this.

A word is worth a millipicture, after all.[/quote]

I do, I have the data linked to graphs. I just think of this more as a weekly snapshot as opposed to more longitudinal study which Rich does such a good job with. Im more interested in looking for actionable inflection points as soon as they arrive then understanding long term trends. I knda like it this way. Happy to email you source data with linked graphs[/quote]

If you send the data, could I post the graphs ?

[sdrealtor]

sure Ive got nothing to hide. Id just ask that it be done on a separate thread

[ncsd760]

Well here we have it. One of the big boys on Camino Serbal for 2.88 million with actual upgrades. Feels like it’ll bring LCV a sale in the 3s.

One of the smaller in my old neighborhood in La Costa Oaks (which is ironically, the newer part) is on for 1.8M backing to RSF. Good floor plan though.

Seeing a trend of some relistings of buyers who tried to list earlier in the pandemic wanting a bit more coin and those houses seem to be sitting (thinking about Cte. Luisa and Aryana Dr. actives right now as examples, but there are others). I have been in the former home, not the latter, but think both may be mildly overpriced.

[sdrealtor]

Corte Luisa sold a few years ago to realtor who went direct after it didnt sell. It was in escrow but fell out once. He’s cashing out

My old neighbor moved to a nice big place in LC Oaks and then downsized to Destino. Nice guy he’s a realtor also

The Serbal house is a great one. Should go full price and if it went as high as 3.5 would not shock me. A neighbor is a long time friend I was talking to this morning. I let him know as soon as I saw it hit coming soon and he is quite pleased to be getting new neighbors

[DaCounselor]

Ok I’m calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.

How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it’s first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor]Ok I’m calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.

How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it’s first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.[/quote]

Just before midnight yesterday at that!

I’ll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong

[DaCounselor]

During the beginning of the last RE price deflation did we see weakness in the inferior properties first? I’m wondering what will happen with this one and if it is a canary in the coal mine of sorts – arguably worst location in the neighborhood and it looks like it needs a complete update:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2801-Jacaranda-Ave-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16710664_zpid/

[sdrealtor]

The weakness always starts with inferior properties and areas. But it doesn’t spread the same way to the premium properties or area. For example parts of Oceanside and Vista got hit close to 50% but our hood never really went down much more than 25%. In our hood some inferior properties got hit a little harder but the premium ones got hit less. When a market is Red Hot and inventory very limited buyers look past the flaws of an inferior property but once the market turns they get hit harder. If you have one you want to sell it in a raging hot market and the corollary is to buy a property like that in a down market.

I think the window to sell that one at top of market is past but others like Serbal will still do well

[Author]

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