[SD Realtor]

We will see what happens. Single digits of infections this week…. I have not kept track of how long the disease has been present in non third world countries. I believe only for 2-3 weeks at most. Given the period of 2-21 days for symptoms to develop I believe the next few weeks will be quite interesting. However, the raw facts are such that measures needed to keep the virus contained will not be enacted.

The game changer is the breach of the non industrialized nations borders.

I will be REALLY happy to be wrong. Russ I totally hope you are correct.

ISIS and terrorism have nothing on Ebola but if ISIS was smart they should focus on smuggling infected people into the US as opposed to using guns and bombs.

[SD Realtor]

Agreed… nothing to see here… time to move along…

My prediction, which I sincerely hope is incorrect, is that our daily life will be changing for us all pretty soon.

Just a guess but logic and probability pretty much point in that direction.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t think the question had a focus on the short term dynamics of the market. There is no doubt the market is slowing down, it has been for quite awhile now. However that is due an extraordinary fast runup in prices due to very poor inventory levels and low rates. Now that prices have runup so much, buyers are taking caution and being more selective. At the same time sellers are pricing well beyond comp levels. So yes the market is slowing and will normalize, inventory will continue to grow and prices will drop. Maybe it will take 6 more months, maybe a year or two.

However that was not the question.

Long term behavior will be more determined by rates. The long term outlook for the market seems reasonable as long as rates are held in check.

[SD Realtor]

Pretty easy question to answer if you know what your goal is. If you wish to add the home as an asset to your portfolio for a long term holding AND the numbers look okay for the home as a rental, then hold onto it. Having a nice mix of 401k with equities and/or bonds and stuff like that along with some real estate is not a bad way to go.

As Econprof noted be realistic about the cash flow when calculating your returns. Find comparable rentals and see what people are asking for them. Pretend you are a tenant and go visit them and see if the landlord will lower the rent so you can worst case your monthly rent. Factor in a little vacancy and maintanence but don’t kill yourself.

Understand your conversion to a rental will also help your taxes significantly between depreciation and being able to expense other line items such as insurance and other expenses you would incur but not be able to deduct as a homeowner. Also this is not an immediate make/break case. You can convert it to a rental and you still have two years of non owner occupancy to sell it if being a landlord is not for you.

I would not worry to much about the overall market. Ignore statements that compare your locale and crappy small condos that are primarly investor owned as those markets are orthogonal. Agreed with other advice about no huge downturn but my caviot would be IF interest rates stay in a limited range. Yes we had a huge runup the past 2 years. That will not continue. We will even out and normalize so you will see some up/down activity in a limited range… Honestly though I would try to keep it as long as the cash flow was not horrible. If you can maybe refi to a lower rate while it is still owner occupied if your rates suck compared to prevailing rates.

[SD Realtor]

or that we have to many people…

[SD Realtor]

Good point AN. I am really surprised Moores law or some analogy does not apply to desal technology. Seems like if there was a heavy focus, it could be achieved on a friendlier economic scale.

To me there really will be no other alternative.

The problem in my mind is not drought or no drought, it is simply consumption of a finite resource due to population growth. It is not just California as well. The largest aquafir that basically sits under the entire midwest has been consumed to a level that is problematic as well.

Basically we need to lay off of the fresh water aquafirs/river system or at least drastically reduce our dependence on them and let them replenish and the only way to do that is with a substantial desalinization program… It will hurt alot now and hurt more later.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t necessarly think that the bank requires that your money be in cash. If that one particular lender requires that, then you need to work with a different lender. As long as you can show through documentation that the money has been in the account and has been seasoned for a few months, it doesn’t matter if it is in equities or money market. I have gotten plenty of loans with my etrade account as the primary account and those funds were in equities.

[SD Realtor]

No you must have an accepted offer in place in order to have the lender submit a loan application and then once that is done you can lock.

[SD Realtor]

I agree Desmond.

I would add don’t worry about the result, enjoy the process and time spent with your kid.

[SD Realtor]

Visiting here has become analogous to picking blackberries. Some juicy stuff but you have to watch out and not get tangled up in the thorns. Then you spend all your time getting untangled and the berries are not worth it.

So I am just trying to keep my eyes on the berries and snipping the thorns.

[SD Realtor]

Russ I say that I abstain from posting a comment on the subject directly due to some of the participants.

[SD Realtor]

lol CE… well not the adjective I would use but you gave me a good laugh… I have already seen the blatant mischaracterization of neighborhoods with the long rants…. the I know everything and will argue about it just because… I am just waiting for the final shoe to drop and I will then know I am home again.

[SD Realtor]

Actually FLU both of my kids have learned to shoot and love to go to the range… they are 8 and 9. They know gun safety better then most adults… and are probably better shots.

[SD Realtor]

Allan the participation trophy is the downfall of society… though it is a perfect description of what is desired by many these days.

[SD Realtor]

Hmmm… the longer I stay away.. the more things stay the same.

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