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JES
ParticipantWe really need to get a handle the trends here through some hard ststistics. San Diego job growth was nearly 0 last quarter, but then I am also seeing so many examples like the above poster who moved here from the OC and knows alot of professionals who are moving here. I have seen that as well, and I also know that the high tech sector ‘appears’ to be booming.
That’s just it though, what are the numbers and how can I prove it? What was the total job loss/gain for the biotech industry last year? For wireless telecom? Was there a significant change in the population of the county with bachelor degrees? With engineering degrees? What was the composition of those who migrated here? These aer the stats that we really need to know.
ParticipantWow, when I logged on this morning and saw all your great responses I realized the true value of a blog like this. It makes sense to me now why it is almost always better to wait for a great price, especially now that we are at a point where we will likely see significant drops. Also, she is unlikely to stay in the house for more than 5 years anyway. During the last run up there were times when prices and rates were both low, and I’m thinking that we will see the same thing on the way down.
ParticipantPowayseller did claim to not be able to do something that would be her gain and another’s loss, and yet did that very thing. What is even more puzzling is why anyone would even consider these actions unethical, and why she even has a problem with them in the first place! Services of honest realtors are required even in a down market. Furthermore, in the broader business world, millions of deals are made every day where both sides evaluate the information available and take risks that could lead to one side losing and another winning. When I place a bet at Del Mar and win and the track loses the law does not consider that unethical behavior, even if I bet on the horse with the worst odds. It wouldn’t even be unethical for someone to advise me to bet on that horse so long as the are upfront with me about the risks.
ParticipantYou have to pull out all the stops. When I was trying to sell our place the majority of the lookers were Asian families and our neighborhood was probably half Asian as well. I contemplated buying a painting of a dragon, phoenix or other good luck/happy marriage image so that they might think it was a sign that the house for meant to be. I decided against it though. Interestingly enough, an Asian familiy bought the place and one of the first comments they made was that they noticed there was another Asian family accross the street!
ParticipantAll homes in this county are overpriced. In fact, to flip the issue on you SDappraiser, please present us with a few properties that are not overpriced. I am interested to see what you come up with and might go look at them if they are really good deals.
On a lighter note, I saw an interesting sign flipping strategy this weekend as well. A young kid, flipping a major builder sign, but the sign was mounted on a metal tripod that allowed him to maneuver it around!
ParticipantWhen you figure out the loss, do you also take into account the commision arrangement that someone has with their realtor, or no realtor? Someone who only has to pay $5,000 in closing costs can sell at a much lower price and still clear the same $$ as someone who spends $30,000 and sells at a higher price.
In this first example, what was the total commision paid? IMO in this market a wise strategy would be to get a realtor who will sell it for 2%, with no additional charges if you find the buyer. On a $700,000 home this is a $15,000 savings in realtor fees which gives you much more leeway than your neighbor who will pay 5.5-6% in fees. Right off the bat you can ask 690k instead of 700, a 10k discount for the buyer and a 5k break for you.
ParticipantYes, this has been a good discussion and like you said it will not be solved here. One thing I’ve learned from this is that I have fairly quickly reached my limit of knowledge on the matter and I plan to read a few books and do more research since it is such an interesting subject.
PD: There is a good book out there called The Case for Christ that may interest you. It was written by a Yale educated lawyer and former atheist Lee Strobel. He also wrote the follow-on book A Case for Faith. He approaches the topic of Christianity and faith in a very methodical and lawyer-like manner, and debates all of the common arguments you hear against Jesus and Christianity. Since he is now a Christian, there may be a certain amount of bias towards Christianity in his analysis, but overall he does a better job than anyone at presenting both sides of the debate, approaching it as a skeptic and providing answers other than ‘just have faith.’
ParticipantAre those accurate figures? I think they are both much lower than that. In fact, job growth right now is near zero and 50,000 people left San Diego last year.
ParticipantVery good lesson contraman. I remember buying Beckett and constantly looking to see what my cards were worth. I have another twist. I had a Jose Canseco rookie card that was worth $100+ when I was in middle school. I was rich. Until a few years later when it dropped to worthless! I believe he’s trying to make a comeback though so perhaps it will rise again:) I kept the card too long and should have sold when the market was hot, just like so many homeowners out there. Unlike my card, however, their homes should not drop to worthless!
ParticipantYes Powayseller!
I am very interested in getting to the bottom of what exactly is happeing with the job scene here. We have more job listings online than any other city in the U.S., but then there are stats out there pointing to job losses and a loss of 50,000 people last year. We hear about all of the highly paid overseas engineers coming here, but then we see that Nokia laid off 600+ a few weeks ago. And the general consensus always semms to be that San Diego is a low wage city. Very conflicting info. Perhaps you can get to the bottom of it!
ParticipantI find it unlikely as well, but I also believe that we will see more laws and regulations on the industry in the future as a result.
Participant“Great citations, JES. I’m glad that I’m on your side!”
-Semper Fi! I did 6 years as a Marine officer to answer your earlier question brother!“Would you have problems with religious symbols from other religions being displayed in public?
-No, I don’t have an issue with other religious symbols being displayed in public. If Muslims, Jews or atheists want to organize a parade in December organize it and find a way to make it happen. Just don’t take away my Christmas parade because you are offended by my religion and wrongly believe that separation of church and state applies right down to the city level as it was never intended to.“The Bible had nothing to do with the Constitution”
-There are very good arguments against this we have presented, and if we look beyond the constitution to other historical documents, events and monuments the case is solid that Christianity was deeply rooted in our founding. Why is it that congress has opened with a prayer for 230+ years?“We have people downtown who live on the streets and don’t have food…we spend tons of tax dollars arguing over the removal of a stone cross…the guy who brought the lawsuit needs to think about the bigger picture…”
-Christian groups fighting the cross removal do more to help the needy than the city could ever hope to do. 2000+ years ago the issue was the erection of a cross and the outcome changed the world forever. Do you honesty think that the money spent by the city to defend the cross would have gone to the homeless anyway?“Exactly why are the Christians asking the government to specifically and exclusively endorse their religion above all others?”
-We are not. I’m simply saying that this cross is an important part of San Diego history and should be preserved.SDREBear – Thanks for the links, I plan to look them over today!
ParticipantI thought this would be a good thread since we are all so impatient for data and it usually starts trickeling in around now in the way of articles and independant analysis of the MLS.
Anyone have MLS access out there? I am wondering if we can pick one zip code, 92078, to see how the sales/pending/actives look compared to July 2006 and August 2005. This is a San Marcos zip, with San Elijo included. Lots of inventory and we may see some real declines.
I am thinking that August might be the month that we start to see some significant declines in the median, although not huge. The data will reflect homes that were sold in June/July, and discounting has gotten worse over time. So as the months go by I am certain we will see the decline continue.
ParticipantPowayseller: As I stated in my earlier post, there are very good reasons why good and honest people actually need to be realtors right now. Your explanation of why you could never be one right now is not just a personal stand, but also a broad attack against everyone currently in the field.
Before you attack SDR on an unrelated issue, how about defending your position that anyone practicing realty right now must be unethical.
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