[JES]

That is too funny!

‘Soft landing’is out the door and she cannot even think of another phrase to use. Is that because she is too proud to call it like it is, or because the situation is so perilous right now that words simply cannot convey the multitude of factors aligning to sink the housing market right now?

[JES]

My comment about employers having a hard time finding qualified workers was meant to apply to certain high tech jobs like, for example, wireless applications engineers, software programmers etc. Go to any high tech company in the area and check out there job site on the web and you will see certain openings repeated over and over. EG: Viasat always has multiple listings for software engineers. I have seen it myself with my company – we have a heck of a time finding people with 1) engineering backgrounds, 2) combined with solid sales experience, 3) Who have worked with customers similar to ours in the past. When we find them we pay them in the low 100s right off the bat.

You’re right about QCom…word has always been that they pay low but rely on the lure of stock options to get good employees. With the cost of living here and the market crash in the not so distant past, these options look less and less lucrative…

[JES]

I work in the wireless industry and have seen a strange combination of job losses but also job gains the past two years. Compaines like Intel and Kyocera have laid off hundreds, yet others like Northrop Grummon, LG, Qualcomm, Motorola are hiring like crazy. Overall, my feeling prior to reading these posts has been that the area economy and job market is booming, unemployment is low and companies simply cannot find enough talent to fill the available jobs. Even retail ‘appears’ to be strong as more and more businesses open up everywhere I look in North County, compared to the number that have closed.

I’d say 80-120k is acurate for those engineering jobs. I have seen some couples come out this way, both engineers, and they can easily make ends meet until they have children. Overall, home prices are a joke and even if things are indeed booming here now I don’t believe it will last. Companies are choosing to set up shop in other cities, people wont move here and are leaving in droves, and the fat cats using their home equity to sustain consumer spending are in for some surprises as their loans reset these next couple years!

[JES]

Go to Qualcomm’s website and do a search for jobs in San Diego. Over 500 openings! But…the cost of living is so high that people wont move here, even for those high paying jobs.

[JES]

Hmm…I just read somewhere, and heard on the news, that San Diego has more online job postings in recent months than any other city in the US!

Here’s the link:

http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/15263/

[JES]

Anyone have any hard numbers on retail sales declines? Surely there are studies, reports etc. that we can use besides just using observations about parking lots being empty etc., although these observations are interesting…

[JES]

So many great responses here! I am going to read the options link right now. I have been considering getting into options, but have hesitated because I do not understand them enough. I did buy a precious metal mutual fund in March and sold it for a 25%, $2,000 profit 3 weeks ago – just before gold started to go down. I also pay cash for all of my cars:) Buying on the margin is exactly what is going on in the housing market and that is some great insight. A shame that the risk is misunderstood by most people though.

[JES]

It is so nice to hear from other people like yourself who are in the same boat! I am often around family and friends who own and I sometimes even feel guilty that I am not willing to sacrifice my entire life savings, childrens education funds, retirement funds etc. just to buy a house out here. I was talking to a family member the other day and explaining how prices are so high, how we are considering moving etc. They simply could not understand why we would consider moving, and morover kept pointing to other people in the family who are sacrificing beyond their means as examples of ‘people who are making it work.’

I agree with you that information availability is making the game easier for buyers. Do you read this site?

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/05/breathtaking-yes-quick-sale-not-chance.html

They have great data on inventory levels, and also funny examples of greedy sellers who keep repricing their homes, and others who are going into forclosure.

One other thing that gives me hope is that I simply cannot understand why homes are priced where they are, and no matter what analysis I do, I keep coming to the same conclusions: The only reason homes are priced so high is because 1)Rates have been low, and 2)The frenzy of speculation caused prices to rise. Both of these pillars are being removed right now and I am certain that the TRUE market prices of homes will begin to appear. Sellers are still pricing based on comps (now irrelevant as far as I’m concerned) and acting as if these two factors are still in high gear. Rates are still OK, but rising, and we haven’t seen enough time pass yet for sellers to really get freaked out. For example, with 1000+ homes appearing per month, what will happen in December to the 40% of the sellers that HAVE to sell?

I have yet to see any fundemental, economic reasons why, for example, a home in Bressi Ranch with no yard, poor construction, questionable choice of styles (Colonial style next to Spanish style next to midwestern ranch…WTF?) is priced at 800k. Is the market, which now has over 20,000 homes, dictating this price based on supply and demand? No way! The mad rush to ‘get in’ and make some equity is what caused these prices to rise. Builders raised each phase, and people kept buying even if they could not afford, and the cycle continued.

Throw in the few factors that do support higher prices like a good economy and still relatively low rates, and I believe that we should have prices that are higher than 1999/2000, but nowhere near where they are now. EG: Instead of 800k, that home which would have been 250k in 1999 should actually be around 350-400k.

So the only hope I have lies in my likely inexact and flawed analysis of prices! But what the heck, maybe I will be right:)

[JES]

Isn’t that amazing that so many people left last year? I am considering waiting a few years to see what happens with prices, but I don’t want to wait forever. I’m thinking that if I give it a year or two I will be able to see if my predictions of a market crash come true. If prices are going to dive we should at least start to see the beginnings of it in the next year don’t you think? Problem is that they have to dive so far for me to consider them attractive and I don’t know if they will ever get that low. EG: It doesn’t do me much good if homes in Carlsbad go from 900k to 775k. Have you considered relocating, or are you going to wait it out?

[JES]

Isn’t that amazing that so many people left last year? I am considering waiting a few years to see what happens with prices, but I don’t want to wait forever. I’m thinking that if I give it a year or two I will be able to see if my predictions of a market crash come true. If prices are going to dive we should at least start to see the beginnings of it in the next year don’t you think? Problem is that they have to dive so far for me to consider them attractive and I don’t know if they will ever get that low. EG: It doesn’t do me much good if homes in Carlsbad go from 900k to 775k. Have you considered relocating, or are you going to wait it out?

[JES]

Isn’t that amazing that so many people left last year? I am considering waiting a few years to see what happens with prices, but I don’t want to wait forever. I’m thinking that if I give it a year or two I will be able to see if my predictions of a market crash come true. If prices are going to dive we should at least start to see the beginnings of it in the next year don’t you think? Problem is that they have to dive so far for me to consider them attractive and I don’t know if they will ever get that low. EG: It doesn’t do me much good if homes in Carlsbad go from 900k to 775k. Have you considered relocating, or are you going to wait it out?

[JES]

Great post and I feel the need to chime in as well. I would like to think I am still a 20 something, but I am actually 31, but at least I have recent memories of that decade! Anyway, I am married with two kids and make over 80k a year in sales, and as you may have guessed, I STILL cannot afford a house in San Diego. We currently live with relatives and are trying to determine our next move. For anyone out there who is worrying about the next generation of buyers, you should worry about people like myself and anxvariety. My wife and I are both college educated, and I am also a former military officer who wants desperately to buy a home in a decent community with good schools where I can play an active role in the community, assume leadership positions etc. We live in an area that fits the bill right now, but prices are an insane 800k-1Mil, and you wont be surprised to hear that there are only families with children aged 12+ here because they all bought when prices were cheap. People should be worried about families like ours not being able, or willing to afford their homes and condos being flipped for insane prices, but they should have a more urgent concern as well. Increasingly, the most logical choice for families like ours is to simply leave town! We recently flew to Colorado for this very reason – to check out jobs and housing, and at the airport happened to sit next to another young couple from San Diego. They were both consultants and had just purchased a home in Colorado Springs. They couldn’t deal with housing prices in SD anymore, and felt no hope of ever being able to afford, so they moved. Before you stop reading, consider this…ALL of our friends are seriously considering moving away from San Diego, save a few who happen to be wealthy enough to have mommy or daddy buy them a house!

[Author]

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