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JES
ParticipantAlso, WCDMA and CDMA2k are very different technologies and I don’t know if you can take a guy who has been doing CDMA work for 3 years and instantly train him to do GSM, EDGE or WCDMA. Best to hire someone who has worked directly with that technology recently don’t you agree? It can be done, but what I have seen is that the folks that know each technology tend to know nothing about the other and the learning curve is steep and takes time. Especially if you hope to design cutting edge devices and you are up against competition that has this stuff mastered. Nokia worldwide should have some resources to put towards this if they indeed are going to do this in San Diego. But re-hiring 300 CDMA engineers may not be the answer! Or if they do there is a great opportunity for a company to do on-site training:)
ParticipantOne would think that would be the case. Most wireless companies have at least a small prescence in San Diego and Nokia should be no different. I am surprised to hear about the news about these layoffs! Nokia San Diego has not had any WCDMA or GSM projects up until now, except for some small testing in cooperation with their European counterparts. No real GSM or WCDMA projects. I would be surprised if they suddenly got into the business since their folks in TX and elsewhere are well positioned to take on any projects in those technologies. They have laid off workers in TX as well these past two years, so I don’t know what they have left remaining.
Is the entire Nokia San Diego site shutting down?
ParticipantThe situation would have to correct itself quite a bit to make it worthwhile for the average worker, say an engineer, to relocate to San Diego. For example, I have a buddy who is a electrical engineer in Wisconsin, just outside of Milwaukee. Paradise on earth? Not quite, unless you like cross country skiing, ice fishing and hunting…and brats!
Anyway, my buddy gets paid the same as a EE would in San Diego, his home cost him 130k and he is living a comfortable life in a top notch suburb with neighbors he actually knows. For the most part, the wives are home with the kids and they have no commute. The weather and mountains, and well, some of the people here are nice, but why on earth would he trade what he has for a job with the same salary, a long commute, neighbors he will likely never know, putting his wife to work and paying 650k for a house? So it corrects itself to 500k…still not worth it. If you can deal with the negatives, going the other way and moving to WI and most other states makes perfect sense right now. If it corrects itself alot then it may start to make sense…ParticipantAlmost forgot! On Qualcomm and CDMA. WCDMA (European standard) and the other European standards are definately growing quicker around the world than CDMA/CDMA2k (Qualcomm’s standard). What is not widely known though is that Qualcomm wins either way. They control thousands of key patents to all of these technologies, including WCDMA. I think they have 30% of the world wide patents for WCDMA…
ParticipantAgreed – the wireless sector only makes up a small portion of the jobs out here and overall there seems to be momentum out of the area, even if a few companies are expanding. No engineer with kids and a wife that doesn’t work would even consider moving out here right now. It’s worrisome for the area as a whole to be honest with you as we will end up losing talented people in critical jobs due to the cost of living. Firefighters, police officers, teachers, creative types who make less $$, non profit workers and on and on. To include myself in fact – I am young, my wife doesn’t work, we have two kids and I am looking at relocating!
ParticipantOn the flip side other companies are moving here or expanding here. Wish I had some data that captures the net gain or loss for high tech jobs here. Qualcomm seems to have plans to expand based on their opposition to the Miramar site being used as an airport, and they currently have 600+ job openings here in San Diego. Motorola was hiring this past year, and there are more new online job listings for San Diego then any other city in the U.S. Nokia merged with Sanyo (different Sanyo operation that the one mentioned earlier) and they cut some jobs in the merger. Freescale semi opened a lab here (purchased another company) and in the wireless sector everyone seems to be hiring.
ParticipantCentex does seem to be ahead of the curve.
Back in March in the Centex community of Silvercrest in San Marcos Centex was trying to sell the remaining 4-5 homes. The basically had a fire sale to get rid of the last couple, and most sold for significantly less than originallly listed. O ya, they had a realtor sell the houses for them! Not sure if that is a tactic they use when the market sours?
In that same community now there are 12+ homes for sale on just two streets, none in escrow and almost all reduced. Models that were selling for 725k last year are now listed at 675k.
ParticipantWhy the focus on whether a home sells for less than the last purchase price? Sure, this may be an indication that the buyer is in trouble, but the same could be true if equity loans were taken out right up to the current comp value, like so many people are doing these days. And to prove that the market is falling we need to look at recent comps, and clearly there are huge drops going on right now. I know of a home in San Marcos, 92078, that was for sale for 825-845k, and the most recent comps were 810k and 860k. An offer came in back in September for 805k and they declined out of greed. They listed again after the holidays, and waitied, waited, reduced the price, and waited. In March they closed at 710k, over 100k less than the lower end of their original price! Another home on the same street has been listed for over 1 year…it started at 685k, sat for 6 months, then they tried unsucessfully to rent it for 5 months. They listed it again for 660k and it sat. Then they lowered it and it is finally in escrow for approx 580k, 100k less than their original asking price!
ParticipantI have an old neighbor who listed his house 2 weeks after I listed mine this year. I listed at a reasonable price (NOT more than previous comps!), I monitored the comps/inventory/neighborhood like a hawk, had a great realtor and a discount plan with him wherby I ended up only paying 2% since I found the buyer and the buyer didn’t have a realtor. This allowed me to except a slightly lower price and still pocket more than someone with a full service realtor who has to pay the full %. My ability to go a little lower is what sold the house, along with my desire to not follow the market down. On the other hand…my neighbor did NONE of these things, went with an out of town realtor friend, and listed at 10k above previous comps. 3 weeks later he reduced his price 5k, again 10k a month after that, and just last week another 5k. Had he listed it for 30k less to begin with it would have likely sold right away! Now there are 10 homes for sale on his street wheras when I sold there were none, and all of them are asking 10-15 ABOVE comps and are just sitting!
My point here is that there are still a whole lot of sellers who have yet to wake up and realize that we aint in 2004 anymore! Whether they ‘have to sell’ or just ‘want to sell’ or are testing the waters, I believe that things are just getting started. Most sellers STILL think that the previous comp is what their home is worth, and they believe that if they wait long enough they will get that price. Just wait until November, December…reality will have sunk in by then and prices will really strat to drop. The psychology of it alone will be a driving force. Homeowners who have no intention of selling right now will take notice and more of them will decide to get out while they still can. Most of those homeowners are still sold on the soft landing scenario….for now!
ParticipantAll things considered you are absolutely correct! I paid cash, did the research like you said and feel good about my purchases. But for the guy that can’t afford it to begin with, takes out a loan, pays too much to begin with etc., it could certainly be the worst thing he ever did financially.
ParticipantI bought a new Toyota in 04′ and another a few weeks ago and have no regrets. I negotiate prices that are darn close to what used models with 15k miles on them are selling for, and for Toyotas resale values are not that much less for the previous model year. Certainly not less enough to justify me losing 1 year of the warranty, having to buy from an unknown person, car condition etc. The cost of ownership over the life of my vehicles is less than almost all American cars and if past experience and consumer reports is any indicator, I will be driving these vehicles past 200k miles. How exactly is this one of the biggest mistakes I will make in my life?
ParticipantYes, you’re right! And I have experience with at least a couple realtors like that and I appreciate the work they did for me…
ParticipantSince the topic has been raised:
What exactly qualifies one as a good realtor? Seriously, using realtor’s own marketing materials and websites one would think that every single realtor in San Diego was realtor of the year, highest grossing realtor in San Diego, had the most closed sales in 2005 etc.
One thing that qualifies someone as a good realtor to me is that they are 1) Have real experience and time at the job, 2) Have more education than just a real estate licence, 3) Are professional in every respect, 4) They are not arrogant and annoying. #4 is very important to me and I believe under rated by most people. There are far to many hot shot realtors out there who are slick talkers but don’t listen well and don’t come off as genuine, good people. This is the case in any industry, but real estate seems to attract a greater share, just like Hollywood. I have sold two houses the past 4 years and have done many of the open houses myself. Approximately 20% of the realtors I encountered passed #4 and the rest in one way of another rubbed me wrong.
There are many types: 1) Strange kind of porn star realtor. You know her…she walks in like she owns the place, and you if you are male. Silicon everything and tight business suit. All attitude. 2) Strange kind of arrogant guy realtor. This one usually has slicked back hair, and talks like he is a wall street tycoon. Often found wearing a pin stripped suit and red tie on hot San Diego days. 3) Strange kind of ‘I know nothing but I will pretend I do’ realtor. Need I say more? 4) Strange kind of ‘I am so sucessful that I need to charge you the full 6%’ realtor. 5) Strange kind of ‘part time’ realtor. Ahh, so many of these around, they might sell 1 home a year, but pass themselves off as real estate pros. They do nails for their second job.
Any more I missed?
ParticipantI second that:
I know a guy who made 90k last year, wife didn’t work, has 2 kids and had a 7 year ARM interest only on a 400k balance and the market value was 675. He was able to make mortgage payments, but saved nothing else beyond a 5% 401k contribution every month. He faced rising rates down the road, a coming glut of potential sellers in his neighborhood (everyone on the street said they were ‘thinking’ of selling), and he decided to sell the end of last year.
90k is the break even point for that house and salary unless you are in his situation and you are super thrifty. Then again, he had a 7 year ARM at 5.3% which is unheard of these days.
Realistically, I would say that for someone with little (meaning even 20-30k) to put down and no previous equity, a salary of at least 100k is needed to afford an entry level house in San Diego, and that would be stretching it. I’m talking about a 15 year old, 1300 sqft. home in Vista or a condo in Sal Elijo etc.
And you’d be stretching it for the opportunity to see your property value plummet, your payments rise, and your self worth deteriorate as you realize that you are a working professional, perhaps a mid level engineering manager, making more in salary than 95% of the people out here, and yet you are broke because you are paying 700/month in mello roos to cover for the taxes that long time residents are not paying for fire departments and the right to have community lighting. Meanwhile, down the street there is a middle aged guy who bought a 2 arce spread 20 years ago for 100k, pays no taxes whatsoever, and he surfs all day long. On the rare occasion that you are home from 70 hour work weeks and you actually see him he calls you ‘dude’ and can’t stop talking about what a financial whiz he is for having the foresight to buy when he did.
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