August Data

[JES]

Any of you industry folks have preliminary data for August yet? Solds, pendings etc. I know it isn’t over yet, but only a couple days away. I would do the research, but I am prevented becasue I do not have the keys to the kingdom.

[SD Realtor]

Hi JES… Dont be surprised if we see a tiny bump up in August in September. The effect would be caused by sellers who finally got it right and skinned prices and got into escrow. Also I could see inventory starting to drop as the spring/summer listings that didn’t sell gave up and decided to rent out or pack it in until that promising spring season begins. WIth that said I believe the yoy sales numbers for August should be down 10-20% from last August. Any let up in the numbers (at least IMO) is just an indian summer…

Tide is still rolling out.

[JES]

I’ve noticed that on the bubble markets inventory tracking web site the inventory for San Diego has leveled off at around 23,500 for the past 2 weeks.

Would you expect to see a bump in pendings and in prices? I would think that prices would show a drop due to reductions, unless the upper end has a disproportional share of sales.

[socalarm]

interesting observation. do you think it has to do with ‘seasonal’ slowdown before labor day…?

[LABen]

Below is an excerpt Calculated Risk. They are citing an survey BofA performed in August of 4,000 agents in 39 of the largest housing markets. The actual report is an interesting monthly read as well.

Study: Housing Market Getting Worse
From the Dow Jones Newswire: August Home Data Weak

Sales and home prices fell at a faster clip than expected and inventories climbed further in August as the housing market continued to deteriorate, according to a Banc of America Real Estate Agent survey.
…
The study, released Tuesday, shows consumer sentiment toward buying a home soured in August.

“Consumers are shifting from a mindset of waiting for a better price to one where they do not want to buy at this time, no matter what the price is,” the study said.

“We think this shift in sentiment is particularly worrisome, as it could take time before the mindset shifts back and could lead the downturn to last longer,” Banc of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim said.

The study also found that prices fell sequentially for the 11th consecutive month. Prices tumbled in 82% of the markets surveyed. In July, only 79% of the surveyed markets fell.
…
Oppenheim said the survey shows prices, incentives, selling times and traffic were all worse than real estate agents had expected. “We expect that conditions are likely to worsen further through the fall/winter and into next spring,” he said.

“We think this excess inventory makes it unlikely that the market will rebound in the near term,” he added.

Raymond James analyst Rick Murray said the study backs up his finding that consumer sentiment has definitely shifted.

“Consumers are just of the mindset at this point that it is not the time to be buying a home and this becomes increasingly problematic for housing,” Murray said.

“Inventory levels right now would suggest that this downturn is probably going to last a period of years as opposed to quarters,” the analyst said.

[sdrealtor]

I’m 1 of the 4,000 that gets surveyed:)

[SD Realtor]

My comment about don’t be surprised if there is a bump was more or less a defensive statement just in case the August numbers don’t represent the same trend that we have been seeing. In my mind I think August should follow suit however I think we will start to see an inventory reduction. However not because of a strong blip up in sales, moreover due to many people throwing in the towel…. so yeah it is part seasonal for people to punt at this time of year. So I expect over the next 4 months for the inventory tide to go out a bit….then the tsunami rolls in around February/March.

Again though I am not seeing a strong run in sales but I have seen a few more pendings. For instance two weeks ago for the infamous 3/2.5 condos in 92130 there were only 3 pendings. Today I checked and there were 8 or 9. However they were all at the lower end of the price ranges.

[sdappraiser]

Not statistically significant, but here are my observations for August.

Random sample of several populated zip codes show a 25-50% YOY decline in closed sales for August. Not many pendings in the pipeline, Sept. figures will reflect this.

Certain sub-market areas may have had 40+/- closed sales in the last 12 months, but currently have 40-60 active listings and only several pending sales (inventory glut).

I’ve completed two purchase appraisals this week. Both properties were priced 10-15% below the last model match comparable to induce quick sale. In both cases, they were the ONLY pendings in the entire sub-market.

The buyer/seller stand off is resolving itself. A few sellers have blinked and values (based on Aug/Sept sales) may end up showing a 10-15% decline YOY. No soft landing in my opinion. Though I do believe we will see a big decline towards the end of this year then moderate declines over the next several.

[JES]

I thought this would be a good thread since we are all so impatient for data and it usually starts trickeling in around now in the way of articles and independant analysis of the MLS.

Anyone have MLS access out there? I am wondering if we can pick one zip code, 92078, to see how the sales/pending/actives look compared to July 2006 and August 2005. This is a San Marcos zip, with San Elijo included. Lots of inventory and we may see some real declines.

I am thinking that August might be the month that we start to see some significant declines in the median, although not huge. The data will reflect homes that were sold in June/July, and discounting has gotten worse over time. So as the months go by I am certain we will see the decline continue.

[SD Realtor]

I too would like to see the numbers make themselves evident with the gravity that we are all talking about but I don’t think we will see them yet JES. I think the way that median prices are reported will still “hide” the true facts. First off the media simply picks the data they want to see so you end up with only the countywide numbers. Second the concessions are never accounted for when you enter the sales price. If you wanna get the numbers by zip codes you can get them from the dataquick website. I think the numbers come out on the the 12th of the month.

[Author]

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