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EconProf
ParticipantTo an and others:
I googled “Is San Diego gaining or losing population?”
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years’ trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want–I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don’t know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don’t know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego’s competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.ParticipantSome weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida–you be the judge.ParticipantThanks for the data sdr, I will concede that you indeed have access to more data than I do.
Not sure what an inventory increase says about future appreciation or population growth vs. decline though. It could be the exploding population of Phoenix simply means more people are younger and moving around while San Diegans are more settled in their abode.
I do recall seeing several sources claiming Phoenix appreciation rates are very high–maybe you can enlighten us on that data.
After that, perhaps it is time to let this thread die a natural death. Its over a year and a half old, nine pages long, and all sides have presented their data.
For the record, I am fully aware of the charms of San Diego, and not just the weather. I was blessed financially by the RE appreciation rates, but I also worked my butt off prepping vacancies for the next tenant, some of whom had a big-screen TV way before my family.
I’ll abstain from further commenting unless I really feel the urge…meaning I overindulge in wine some night.Participant[quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?[/quote]Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must’ve been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?[/quote]
Answer 1: Phoenix
Answer 2: CaliforniaConclusion: People are voting with their feet.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?Participant“…alleged CA exodus…”
Your words.
Say no more. That’s all we need to know about your “data”.ParticipantSome observations from the above comments. My purpose has been to use demographic trends and population flows to predict RE values. My hope is to share information that may be useful to other Piggs in their decision- making. sdr and some others disagree and have their own data points and claim, wrongly, that I’ve put out no facts.
sdr claims, correctly, that St. George/Washington City is the size of Oceanside. So what? Question: is Oceanside growing? I honestly don’t know–but our area is thriving by every measure: unemployment, rents, RE prices, clean government, etc. We have a new area called Tech Ridge which is the incubator for many new firms. Our Utah Technical University grew 10% per year throughout COVID, while other university enrollments, on average, continue to shrink, perhaps because employers have learned to stay away from their “woke” agendas.
Final comment, I thought this whole subject had exhausted itself and was long gone. In fact, the last entry was February 28 of this year, and then it died a natural death. That is until sdr revived it months later with a criticism of our weather. That got the ball rolling again, including, quoting sdr “…As for this thread & EP this thread stays active & pops up regularly”. Uh, no, unless you keep reviving it.Participantsdr: I accept all your numbers, but what does it prove?
Assuming “inventory” means houses on the market, does the inventory/population ratio predict future price trends? Or does it mean people in those cities move a lot, or existing owners want to cash in on their sudden capital gain, or the recent jump in interest rates prompts fence-sitters to try to sell and move up in the same city, or …what? I honestly don’t know.
What counts, and is readily measured, is where people are moving from and where people are moving to. And, importantly, what kind of people. The techies that are moving from CA to Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc. does not bode well for San Diego, which is now losing population in an absolute sense after being a refuge from LA and Bay area escapees. And what kind of people are moving TO San Diego (hint: where would you most like to be homeless?)
Snark aside, I’m not sure what your data proves.Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?Participant[quote=sdrealtor]EconProf has been in Utah for a year. That’s sufficient time to have cooked several batches of meth. I’ll defer to him as our meth expert[/quote]
Stay classy, sdr.
ParticipantWhoops, still trying to figure out the Piggington posting rules!
Participant[quote=flyer]EP, so glad to hear you’re doing well. Although there do seem to be more and more people who can’t make it CA, we know a number of people, like you, who have chosen to leave CA, and not because they couldn’t make it here.
Many feel they have maxed out their California experience over a period of many years, and just want a change, or have other reasons. Most are in a position where they can come back anytime, so leaving temporarily, or otherwise, is not really an issue.
Personally, we love everything about our lives in CA, and, after seeing what most of the world has to offer, really don’t feel the need to make a change, but still respect the need or desire others may have to do so.[/quote]
ParticipantThanks Flyer, and completely agree. COVID plus the ability to work remotely from home has upended decisions of where to live in many ways. It’s not just a San Diego vs. St. George issue. People are fleeing the big cities for both outer suburbs and ex-urbs (example–LA to Riverside County).
St. George has a building boom of big houses near our airport because of direct daily flights to LA so CA workers can check in once a month or once a week with their employer.Participantsdr: Interesting you say that UT has more gov’t employees per capita than CA, since CA ranks 8th in state taxes per capita ($4,424) and UT ranks 37th (2,543)–I googled state taxes per capita. I guess we pay our government employees less.
This ignores local taxes, and CA has that great Prop 13, right? The property taxes on my house are a little over 1/2% of value.
Regarding housing appreciation rates, I googled “US State Home Price Appreciation”, and Utah came in 2d in the nation at 27.05% as of end of 2021 (AZ was 1st). CA came in at 16th with 19.62%. SD undoubtedly came in better than the state average. By the same token, St. George is doing better than the state average. We are getting an influx of people from the Salt Lake City area. Some come for the weather (!), and reportedly SLC has air pollution and a homeless problem. -
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