Goodbye to San Diego

[sdrealtor]

Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?

[XBoxBoy]

Watched an interesting Netflix show, “Keep Sweet: Pray and Obey”, about the FLDS and their ties to St George Utah. Made me wonder if EconProf has any ties to them.

[phaster]

[quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]

[quote=XBoxBoy]Watched an interesting Netflix show, “Keep Sweet: Pray and Obey”, about the FLDS and their ties to St George Utah. Made me wonder if EconProf has any ties to them.[/quote]

anyone else wonder is the real estate boom in places like St George Utah and Lo$t Wages (for example) an upscale and temporally more successful version of California City?

https://laist.com/news/entertainment/california-city-podcast-dark-side-american-dream

PS the reason I specifically mentioned “temporally more successful version” is because of the drought in the SW region

https://www.piggington.com/megadrought_threatens_california_power_blackouts_summer

[Myriad]

[quote=sdrealtor]
System Access charge $39.44
SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56

Total bill is $56.42
[/quote]

Wait, so you have no sewer charge? or you have a septic system?
My fixed charges alone are $112.

[Myriad]

*dup

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Myriad][quote=sdrealtor]
System Access charge $39.44
SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56

Total bill is $56.42
[/quote]

Wait, so you have no sewer charge? or you have a septic system?
My fixed charges alone are $112.[/quote]

Recent bill was $58 and no sewer charge on water here. We are Leucadia Waste Water district and have a $378 annual charge on tax bill

FWIW my tax bill is about $7200. Thats $5600 based upon assessed value, $800 mello roos which should go away in several years, the roughly $400 sewer charge and another $400 or so of miscellaneous charges and bonds

[gzz]

The problem with investing in St George RE isn’t any lack of water. This is such a tiresome worry. Western states waste most of their water on low-value agricultural in a bizarre system where wasteful farms pay far less than residential or industrial users.

Any real water shortage would result in residential users who are a large majority of the population outbidding agricultural users. But we actually won’t have any water shortages, this is just Chicken Little propaganda by major water users eager for even more state subsidies.

In a free market for water, Western state residential water bills would decrease substantially. The “cost” would be, e.g., on Chinese consumers who wouldn’t get our almond exports quite so cheaply, and the ultrarich owners of farms that get water subsidies.

St George’s issue is low density small metro suburban housing in middle America deprecates over time and trends downscale, and there’s always ample developable land to build newer and nicer housing. I don’t think his Utah RE is going to be a disaster for EP, but it will probably return over a 20 year period roughly inflation minus 1%.

[barnaby33]

Any real water shortage would result in residential users who are a large majority of the population outbidding agricultural users. But we actually won’t have any water shortages, this is just Chicken Little propaganda by major water users eager for even more state subsidies.

In a free market for water, Western state residential water bills would decrease substantially. The “cost” would be, e.g., on Chinese consumers who wouldn’t get our almond exports quite so cheaply, and the ultrarich owners of farms that get water subsidies.

We have a real water shortage. California grows 50% of Americas fruit and veg. So what you are really stating is that in a free market, we’d all have plenty of residential water (more expensive than now but not horribly so) at the expense of fresh fruits and veg a lot of the year. That’s cutting off your nose to spite your face. Yes the Chinese should pay more for almonds, and agricultural water should be more expensive with the explicit social goal of moving us towards perma culture, but be careful what you wish for.
Josh

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]

Big numbers? ROTFLMAO! St George is the same size as Oceanside. Demand in Vegas and Phoenix is falling much faster than here you just havent seen the numbers yet.

Here is some data

Inventory Y-o-Y through May in a few of the markets Californianians are alegedly fleeing to

SD -12%
Santa Clara +12%
Vegas +71%
Phoenix +101%
Austin +140%
Nashville +44%

Inventory M-o-M through May in a few of the markets Californianians are alegedly fleeing to

SD +9.5%%
Santa Clara +31%
Vegas +48%
Phoenix +62%
Austin +51%
Nashville +44%

Current Inventory at end of May with population in parentheses

SD 3200 (3.3M)
Santa Clara 1658 (1.9M)
Vegas 4367 (2.8M)
Phoenix 10508 (4.6M)
Austin 4173 (1M)
Nashville 4539 (1.3M)

So comparatively

Vegas about 33% more inventory despite over 15% smaller population

Phoenix almost 250% more inventory despite only 33% bigger population

Austin 30% more inventory with less than 1/3 the population of SD

Nashville 40% more inventory with about 1/3 the population

Woe is me! Data does not lie

[EconProf]

sdr: I accept all your numbers, but what does it prove?
Assuming “inventory” means houses on the market, does the inventory/population ratio predict future price trends? Or does it mean people in those cities move a lot, or existing owners want to cash in on their sudden capital gain, or the recent jump in interest rates prompts fence-sitters to try to sell and move up in the same city, or …what? I honestly don’t know.
What counts, and is readily measured, is where people are moving from and where people are moving to. And, importantly, what kind of people. The techies that are moving from CA to Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc. does not bode well for San Diego, which is now losing population in an absolute sense after being a refuge from LA and Bay area escapees. And what kind of people are moving TO San Diego (hint: where would you most like to be homeless?)
Snark aside, I’m not sure what your data proves.

[sdrealtor]

If it was my data Id be honored that you accept it but its from calculated risk where you can find some more. Inventory in absolute and the trend is the best leading indicator there is for pricing. It is the best most trackable measure of the balance between supply vs demand. The exact reasons dont matter and could be different each place. Its the trend which is unfavorable that matters. So what it means is those alleged CA destination markets are showing very strong signs of large price declines to come while SD continues to be perhaps the strongest market in the country.

I included Santa Clara also as its one of the prime coastal markets and would have included LA if the data was there. I didnt include Sacto which had numbers but is more of fleeing high cost CA market and has more incommon as a place and the inventory trend is similar to LV/PHX/NVille than SD. There wasnt good FLA data but what seems to be going on there is more the great resignation/earlier than expected retirement gang then WFH crowd.

You keep talking about CA losing population of techies but have provided nary a single data point. Its CA for chrissakes! There are and always have been people coming and going here. Its what we do here! So while we lose some techies, we birth as many or more techies on an ongoing basis. Encinitas has 2 $1B+ unicorn companies at the moment. Those were unheard of in SD just a few years ago and now we have TWO at Mayberry by the Beach! SD economically is in boom times and looks to continue the same for quite some time

BTW at last count we have about 8400 homeless in SD. Thats a colossal tragedy for them and they seem to be mostly congregated in high profile downtown areas but in the grand scheme of things is a pretty small number and has no effect on our economy. It only makes for good fodor for right wing nut jobs who leave a place that treated them very well but prefer to take backhanded swipes on their way out the door about political climates they dont agree with

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]

Wonder no more! Here is what is going on in Utah!

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/6/23/23180254/housing-market-us-utah-provo-price-cuts-prices-falling-bubble-crash-when-will-bubble-pop

No market out west is weakening harder and faster than the Utah metro areas and of course St George has gotta be right there with them.

My favorite quote in the article came at the very end!

“The trend has started to reverse in both places, with Salt Lake City seeing a net outflow (more Redfin.com users looking to leave than move in) for the first time on record in the first quarter,” Redfin reported.

Game, Set, Match

[zk]

[quote=sdrealtor]Never said that but keep believing I did while your rent climbs. Real estate is local. It’s different everywhere. I only care what is happening locally. What happens elsewhere? It’s not my problem
[/quote]

(bolding is mine)

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]

Wonder no more! Here is what is going on in Utah!

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/6/23/23180254/housing-market-us-utah-provo-price-cuts-prices-falling-bubble-crash-when-will-bubble-pop

No market out west is weakening harder and faster than the Utah metro areas and of course St George has gotta be right there with them.

My favorite quote in the article came at the very end!

“The trend has started to reverse in both places, with Salt Lake City seeing a net outflow (more Redfin.com users looking to leave than move in) for the first time on record in the first quarter,” Redfin reported.

Game, Set, Match[/quote]

Yeah, real estate is local. Except when you use an article that has data for Provo, Salt Lake City, and Ogden (and no other places in Utah) to make a point about St. George. Sacramento is on that list, too. If someone had tried to use that to make a point about the market in San Diego, you’d be wearing out the LOL keys on your keyboard.

dz gets kicked off, and you can’t go for more than a couple days without throwing jabs at somebody, so you dig this old thread up and use irrelevant data to claim “game, set match.” Showing your true colors, sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]

I included Santa Clara also as its one of the prime coastal markets and would have included LA if the data was there. I didnt include Sacto which had numbers but is more of fleeing high cost CA market and has more incommon as a place and the inventory trend is similar to LV/PHX/NVille than SD. There wasnt good FLA data but what seems to be going on there is more the great resignation/earlier than expected retirement gang then WFH crowd.

[/quote]

here

[Author]

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