[EconProf]

sdr & others:  I’ve tried to let this thread die a natural death but you keep reviving it.  It appears I must be a threat to your livelihood.

Contrary to your statements, I did not leave SD unappreciative of the amenities and livelihood it gave me in abundance.  The recent (and increasing) exodus to other states from CA is prompted by differences in cost of living, government policies (esp. taxes and utility costs), and lifestyle choices.

Incidentally, while you often cite RE differences between my St. George/Washington City area vs. San Diego, I’d remind you that CA refugees are fleeing to all neighboring states, plus Florida.  Let’s think beyond St. George vs. San Diego.

Regarding your “proof” that St. George is not doing well RE-wise, your data is not accurate.  A major local realtor said our average price is up 8% over the past year and there are 13% more “pending” sales.  My four rental properties here never have turnover, and I raise the rent annually (as promised when they begin).

Hollywood has discovered us, as Kevin Kostner is in love with the area, and will be building a 120,000 S/F “Territory Studio” near our airport, since he has made & starred in movies here of late.

Speaking of the airport, the work-from-home trend has many people keeping their job in San Diego and L.A. and flying to their big-city job a few times a month.  They are here for the lifestyle and cost of living.

Finally, you seem to take pride in the high and rising cost of housing in San Diego, and especially your rarefied neighborhood by UCSD and the ocean.  Good for you and the rich people around you, but I bet the average Piggington reader does not take comfort from this.

Our lower cost of housing is largely due to abundant land, cheaper construction costs, decent government, etc.  Your own figures show that a $950,000 ticky-tack 50-year old Mira Mesa house will get you a new 3000 SF mansion with forever views in St. George suggests that current trends will continue.

Demographics is….

 

[EconProf]

Quote from FlashReport.org:

SDUT:

“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”

Gosh, I wonder why.

[EconProf]

Yep.  HUD and US Census Bureau are politically motivated data sources.

[EconProf]

Zero Hedge clearly leans right, but its followers understand that and can presumably separate the wheat from the chaff.  For example, what part of the HUD data that I quoted about housing costs prompting people to move toward some areas and away from others is misleading?  Is it not relevant to our discussion topic?

The main message of Zero Hedge is that our insane deficit spending now propping up the economy is a ticking time bomb.  It is like paying interest on current credit cards by taking out more credit cards.  This will blow up in our face and our children will rightfully blame us for it.

The evidence is piling up that people and businesses are “voting with their feet”, and San Diego’s beauty, beaches, and weather is not stopping its current population decline, as per US Census data.

[EconProf]

“…greatest place in the country…”  Your quote.  Yeah, there’s some real hard data.

Here’s some real data to chew on in today’s news from a source called Credit News (via a neat site called Zero Hedge).

It names ” “The Best and Worst Metro Areas for 1st Time Buyers in 2024”.  Austin is #2, San Antonio is #3 among the best.

All 5 worst are in CA, ranked as follows:  Riverside- San Bernardino-Ontario, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, LA-Long Beach-Anaheim, San Diego-Carlsbad, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara.

So relax, sdr.  I’m sure all these people moving from the second group of metro areas will soon learn the folly of their ways and move back to the first group of cities.

Demographics is….

[EconProf]

sdr:  you are right and I am wrong.  All the people and companies that moved to AZ, Utah, Texas, Nevada, etc. will surely realize the folly of their decision and soon move back to California.  I give up and surrender to your wisdom.

Demographics is….

Goodbye and good luck.

[EconProf]

sdr:  Thanks for making my case.

That kind of money will get you a 50-year old tiny Mira Mesa tract home.  You are enticing Piggs to move here.  Thanks.

Also, you said no good employment here.  Our unemployment rate is 2.8%…”Now Hiring” signs everywhere.  No homelessness to speak of.  8 Thai restaurants for you to pick from.

Among the states losing population (NY, IL, Lousy-anna, etc.), CA leads nation in PERCENTAGE terms .

Demographics is destiny.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EconProf]

sdr:  I’ve given you data, but you call them “imaginary studies”, so here’s some official statistics you can easily verify via Google:

Monthly electricity costs by state, October

CA:  $239.68

FL:  138.68

ID:  108.99

TX:  131.95

AZ:  130.24

Water and sewer rates are similarly far worse in San Diego than the comparable states.  Gas prices there down?  News flash, they are lower everywhere lately, but still highest in CA.  Public schools there still rank poorly based on national test scores, yet per-pupil spending among the highest.

You live in a gilded neighborhood of San Diego, and good for you.  But it is not representative of greater San Diego which is losing population as per US Census Bureau to the states listed above.

Demographics is destiny.

[EconProf]

sdr:  nice dodge.  You can’t face the fact that Californians (and San Diegans) are leaving for a long list of reasons, despite your great weather.   BTW, the great SD weather also makes San Diego a great draw to your homeless population.

And yes, it is documented those leaving are on average higher income people.  The very factors you mention, like land costs, combined with utility costs, expensive and poor schools, etc. are prompting the exodus.  Regarding the latter, a study just compared educational results by state in the return to post-covid school test scores.  Because CA locked down for so long, they fared worse in national test scores than Mississippi.  So the poor whites and poor blacks of the deep south outperformed CA students (UT scored 3rd in the nation).

And the trend seems to be accelerating as more people move based on the lower cost of living.  Want to escape the nearly highest state income taxes in the nation?  Move to income-tax free Nevada, Florida, or Texas, or low-taxed AZ or UT.  You’ll get twice the house for half as much money.  You are correct to point out they are building like crazy here and people are flooding in.  When we meet new people here, we always ask “Where are you from?”  Usually it is coastal California.

Have fun paying for full medical care for all illegals, and for huge reparations for Blacks (who will start moving to CA in droves if reparations become law).  As your favorite politician (I’m guessing) might say “C’mon man”.

Cheers,

EconProf

 

[EconProf]

CA faces a $68 BILLION budget deficit, so is now considering a wealth tax.  With an already sky-high state income tax, Gavin Newsom is now advocating a tax on your  worth.  So sdr, since you’ve bragged here about your wealth, prepare yourself to pay a tax on it.

Also under consideration is an “exit tax”.  So those who escape to another state will pay to do so.

Part-time CA residents would pay based on what fraction of the year they reside in CA.  Jeeze, if I vacation in CA will I have to pay?

But at least your taxes are going to a good cause….like complete medical care for illegals.  The world’s sick need only walk across the Texas border and head straight for CA to get their medical care,  including (I believe–not sure), sexual transition surgery.

Piggs of a certain age will remember the song Hotel California:

“You can check out any time, but you can’t leave.”

Cheers,

EconProf

[EconProf]

sdr:  At least we agree on one thing:  the shortage of buildable land in San Diego compared to the abundant land in southern Utah (and Phoenix and Las Vegas and Texas and….) strongly influences prices.  Beyond that are many other factors propelling the exodus:  utility costs, taxes, poor schools, homelessness, etc.  You mention construction and seeing cranes everywhere.  Yeah, we got them too.  Anecdotes prove nothing.  I prefer hard data, like US Census Bureau.  CA, and lately San Diego, is losing population.  Furthermore, the population leaving is now higher income, and, of course, businesses.  Try renting a U-Haul truck in San Diego.

Demographics is destiny.

[EconProf]

sdr:  I’m sure you have heard of the idea that supply and demand determine prices.  San Diego house prices are high in comparison to other areas because of limited supply:  terrain, high labor prices, an intrusive and expensive government, etc.  People are fleeing to AZ, NV, Utah from CA (including San Diego) at increasing rates, and especially the high income people and firms.

In the rarefied atmosphere of La Jolla and coastal San Diego in which sdr operates, the old rich demographic will keep prices high.  Where people are moving to tend to have abundant land for new developments (which are exploding here in St. George)–same for other nearby areas…thus the vastly lower prices.  High prices may be a point of pride for sdr, but the average working family who must pay $3/4 million for a 45 year old Mira Mesa tract house with a one car garage….???  That amount will get you a house like mine:  3200 S.F., forever views, property taxes of under 1% of value, great schools, little crime or drugged out homeless, clean and lean government, utility rates 1/4 of San Diego’s, etc., etc.

Yes, interest rate hikes have softened our new home prices–mine fell from over $800,ooo to about $775,000 as a result (paid $550,000 3+ years ago).  New developments are exploding to meet the population influx, so prices retreating slightly due to interest rates and the increase of supply.  My three rental condos are still gaining in value, any vacancy is quickly filled, and I raise rents annually.

 

 

[EconProf]

sdr:  a long time ago you made some smart decisions that continue to save you money even today.

Congratulations.

But that in no way represents the situation of the average San Diegan, or, most likely, the average Piggington reader.  Which is why San Diegans are leaving, albeit at a slower pace than the other two big CA metropolitan areas (US Census data).

Perhaps other readers would like to weigh in on their property taxes, utility bills, state and local government policies, school quality, etc.  Or is everyone afraid the ever-so-touchy sdr will jump on them?

Demographics is destiny.

[EconProf]

Here are a couple of stats relevant to this thread.  BTW, I have not commented recently or kept up with Piggington forum subjects, thinking my subject would die a natural death after so long.  Alas, it lives on!

US Census data released (I think) today, showed that in CA 871,000 people left in 2022.  I assume that is the NET loss–outgoing minus incoming.  A few days ago another news report said higher income people are moving out more so than lower income.

Then today I got my property tax bill for the year for my house for this year:  $2,644.04.  Zillow values it at $760,200, so the property tax represents about 1/3 of one percent.  CA long ago enacted Proposition 13, knocking property taxes down to 1% of value (although I believe add-ons put it at about 1.2%).

For that we get clean government, far better schools (according to national standardized tests), and yes, worse weather.  But I’ve heard from friends in San Diego that their water, sewer, and electric bills are several times higher than St. George.

 

 

 

[EconProf]

Well said, Svelte

To each his own…

[Author]

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