North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

[quote=ncsd760]Sitio Abeto closed 2.8…same house in Spring heyday would have closed at or above list price I think.

Two things are true, the good ones will always go, and, markets are softer now. Just one I was watching. Interested in Caliente pending at 2.85.[/quote]

At least 10% more and maybe 15% more. FWIW was in escrow at 2.85 and reduced during escrow by 50K

[Pbranding]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=matt]This is an interesting transaction history. What’s going on here sdrealtor?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2901-Segovia-Way-92009/home/4083425?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet%5B/quote%5D

Here you go. First the house. Nothing has been done to it in 20 years, its located on a fairly busy neighborhood feeder street, has a smallish yard that is all concrete and pool. Some of this can be fixed but some cant. It took almost a year to sell in the raging 04/05 market and then about 6 months in the solid 2018 market. Its just not a great property for the model and community.

Now what happened. Owner lists house in mid-May for 2.5M (which a slight stretch that may have been possible in March/April) and quickly realizes market has changed. After lowering to 2.375M in a couple weeks they realize market has changed and sell it to Open Door.

Open Door gives them 2.5 minus their fees which nets to 2.3ish in early June. OD just values based upon size, location, pool, neighborhood comps without understanding the finer points that make it a bit of an albatross.

The market comes to crashing halt immediately after they close and now they are stuck with a relatively tough to sell house for the neighborhood with some things that can be fixed and others that cant in a declining market.[/quote]

Just saw this sold for 1.9 that’s 24% down from June. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2901-Segovia-Way-92009/home/4083425#property-history

Clearly an example of ibuyers bringing the surrounding market down.

[sdrealtor]

Not really. They over paid back in June. What this house just sold for is what it should’ve sold for. It’s not an earth shaking low sale. It’s a regular sale in line with surrounding comps. Point of reference house on Abeto closed for about $1m more

Prior owners stole money when they sold

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (15) – back to normal

New Pendings of 9 (23) – about the same its been

Thats -1

Closed sales at 18 (20)

Total houses for sale 88 (47) with median of $1.925M ($2.5M).

Last November was a huge month that cleared out the inventory, this year not so much. We are got about 20% fewer new listings the first part of November this year vs last year but pendings are down about 50%.

This is the week we typically see the season decline in inventory begin in earnest. If past patterns hold we’ll end up the year with about half of what we have now.

We are in a very different market than we were six months ago but nothing is flashing red lights right now. The stock market seems to finding its balance and interest rates have come down a touch. So many things could change between Spring and now but Im just not seeing signs of a big panic at this time.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (10) – back to normal

New Pendings of 18 (25) – bumped back up

Thats -12

Closed sales at 14 (13)

Total houses for sale 82 (36) with median of $1.9M ($2M).

This coming week last year pendings started falling off a cliff because there was nothing to buy. This year we have twice as much to buy. It will be intertesting to watch whether pendings hold up better with more out therer to buy. The 18 pendings we saw this week shows that could happen. I saw a few houses get sold this week that i thought would have to wait until next Spring to sell. It seems like there are some buyers who want in before the Spring surge begins. The drop in rates is feeding that also. Still no red lights flashing on my dashboard

[sdrealtor]

Back from the desert, catching up…

New listings 6 (5) – back to normal

New Pendings of 5 (14) – bumped back up

Thats +1

Closed sales at 5 (10)

Total houses for sale 85 (33) with median of $1.95M ($2.35M).

Well after pendings bumped up a lot two weeks ago last week they dropped back down. The 5 pendings in a week matches the lowest figure Ive seen since starting this monitor.

The drop in pendings along with what I will mention next led to an increase in active inventory at a time when it tradionally drops. Thats a little smoke in the market and will have to watch to see if fire follows.

One thing I noticed a couple weeks ago but didnt feel I had enough evidence to write about is fewer sellers seemed to be taking homes off for the holidays. I think I can call that a trend now and a slightly ominous one at that. I can think of two reasons for this. First with prices in decline and less selling, homesellers are less optimistic about waiting for Spring. Second with sales volume down there are hungry agents advising clients to keep trying. I think a little of both is at play here

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (10) –

New Pendings of 11 (15) –

Thats -4

Closed sales at 13 (31)

Total houses for sale 85 (33) with median of $1.99M ($2.675M).

Slow holiday activity but pendings did bump back up the past week, Inventory just treading water right now. Still not seeing much come off for the holidays here

As an aside last year anything under $2M sold quickly leaving mostly high end homes left on the market. Thats why the median was so much higher last year

[EconProf]

A Landlord’sTale
Here is a true story about a series of events I went through some two to three decades ago in San Diego. It should make for good cheer in this Christmas season.
It happened in several phases, and I’ll start toward the end.
I walked into a “tenants attorney” office with a someone else’s tenant and paid a sleaze-ball attorney (SBA) several hundred dollars in cash to defend against an eviction.
How do I know he was a SBA? I had gone against him months ago in an eviction from one of my buildings, a 4-plex in Santee. The SBA was known for defending every kind of tenant with any means possible, no matter how egregious the tenants’ actions (OK, that’s our legal system–everyone needs needs legal representative), and no matter what dirty tactics he had to use in the process.
In my Santee case, the tenant–a family of four with two kids under ten years old–was a druggie doing great harm to the apartment, the other tenants, and probably his family. He said he would use SBA To stop or greatly delay the eviction so he seemingly had used him in the past. The last time I had tried to collect his overdue rent he was lying on a sofa in the living room with his family, high as a kite, with his legs shaking from his drug high. Of course, he scared my other three tenants. He said he was a carpenter and if he were to be evicted he would take a framing hammer to all the sheetrock in the apartment. I ended up with a “cash for keys” ($500) outcome plus ten days more possession.
Back to the middle of this tale. A year or so later, I was having a McDonalds lunch at their El Cajon Avenue and (about) about 27th Street location. I at a long table amongst several other customers, including a mixed-race female in her late twenties while I read the paper and ate. Finished up, drove to a Home Depot store to buy landlord’s supplies and at the check-out counter discovered I did not have my billfold in my pocket. Alarmed, I guessed the McDonald’s must be where I left it. With little hope of recovery, I drove back. As I parked there, the lady was in front of the McDonalds, waving my billfold in the air. Thanked her profusely and we went inside and talked for half an hour, each explaining our background, employment, etc.
She worked at cleaning up at a downtown restaurant, low paying, and lived in one of those ancient, now-gone single room occupancy (SRO) former hotels with the bathroom down the hall. She said she was now being unfairly evicted and though I don’t remember the details, I felt she was right.
Footnote: She didn’t have the accent of most US blacks, so I delved into her past. Turns out her dad was a Black man serving in the US military in Japan, and her mom was Japanese. Such mixed race children do not fare well in Japan, so her father, whom she adores, brought her back here and now lives far away.
She was distressed because she could not afford the initial fee attorneys charge to begin to fight an eviction.
You can guess what I had to do next. I drove her to the office of the SBA, where I paid the fee for her to fight the eviction. Of course she won, probably without going to trial, as this landlord had to know the reputation of said SBA.
We exchanged letters for a while, with her telling me of her progress, and calling me “her Angel” for helping her. My wife and I enjoyed the letters, and eventually I let the contacts lapse.
Conclusions: Don’t judge people by their appearance, race, or financial status.
Also, poor people can be astonishingly ethical and honest.

[sdrealtor]

Nice story. You eat at McDonald’s? Don’t let scaredy know. Good to know Santee is Encinitas adjacent also!

Happy holidays! Hope you’re enjoying your family!

[EconProf]

Whoops! I meant this to be the start of a new OT thread. Either I goofed up or, Rich T. informs me by text that they are “migrating the site to a new host”, whatever that means.
Anyway, apologies to sdr, and to all my fellow Piggs, happy holidays. Hope this “warms the cockles of your heart”.
Best,
EconProf

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (7) –

New Pendings of 9 (12) –

Thats -3

Closed sales at 11 (21)

Total houses for sale 77 (31) with median of $1.95M ($2.295M).

Slowly heading to year end with declining inventory

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (5) –

New Pendings of 12 (16) –

Thats -8

Closed sales at 11 (18)

Total houses for sale 66 (24) with median of $1.975M ($2.51M).

Activity looks much like last year with little coming on but sales still going. Inventory is half what it was at Summer peak level. I expect much the same for next 3 or 4 weeks and then we start to see what 2023 will bring

[sdrealtor]

Last update of the year! New listings 0 (2) –

New Pendings of 2 (5) –

Thats -2

Closed sales at 7 (6)

Total houses for sale 58 (18) with median of $1.975M ($2.9M).

A few thoughts. Im less confident here than down in MM though I dont see any thing Id consider a crash here. Pricing is currently back around where it was a year ago.

This was the first week Ive ever seen ZERO homes listed. While normally I would chalk it up to the holidays I think its a precursor foreshadowing what will be owners resistance to give up low rate mortgages and sell at now lower prices.

There still isnt a single home for sale below $1M but Id expect we get some this year. Not many but some.

The huge drop in the y-o-y median is due to everything up to around $2M selling last year so it was very skewed a year ago with a top heavy mix at year end.

In the last 4 weeks we put 34 into escrow and we end with 58 on the market. Call it just under 2 months of inventory. We probably had a dozen or so taken off market for holidays so we should get back over 70 pretty quickly.

While we wont get as much new inventory as we typically do, the demand side is the unknown. Potential buyers will be looking at prices around 20% lower year over year this Spring with much higher rates. I see moderate but not big downside ahead. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Ironically Im looking at a purchase this Spring. Its kind of a once in lifetime thing that I wont have another chance at. Despite knowing Id be paying a bit of premium there’s a good chance Im gonna. It would be all or mostly cash. Would be a great place to ride out the string someday while renting my home and a great place for one of the kiddos someday or a great income property for them.

Happy New Year everyone

[sdrealtor]

Welcome back! So now the question is what is gonna happen to inventory? Will there be a race to the exits? Will buyers keep buying?

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 5 (12) –

Thats -2

Closed sales at 6 (18)

Total houses for sale 57 (18) with median of $1.95M ($2.77M).

Deadsville here also. Even less coming on then last year and of course less selling. Next week should be similar and then the season begins. The slow start does seem to foreshadow whats ahead though.

On personal note, it looks like the homes Im interested in will get released late 2023 and then about a year to build which is what I was hoping for. There is one getting released this Spring that would be hard to pass on though if I get the chance. TBD

[scaredyclassic]

What if no one ever sells? Maybe everyone just keeps their spot, like some sort of medieval castle that never changes hands. The prices are too high to buy, sellers can rent it out for way more than their payment…

Could this be the future?

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