Goodbye to San Diego

[an]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.[/quote]
https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart rate goes up much slower than it coming down. If it all fall apart in a few months, I can see we’ll be back to near 0% by this time next year.

[sdrealtor]

[img_assist|nid=27686|title=Inventory compared to 2019|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=77]

The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates. We also have different market dynamics at work different places. Boise and the like for example were ripe with investors and speculators. Around here we are still just over half of where we were in 2019. Inventory growth seems to be slowing here from my tracking but we’ll know better in another 4-6 weeks

[sdrealtor]

Crested 110 today in SG

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?[/quote]

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must’ve been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=sdrealtor]

The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates.
[/quote]

We will see I guess,
IMO 75 basis points would be the straw that broke the back of the economy.

FED moving way too fast IMO, I hope they know what they are doing else my theory will get tested LOL.

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?[/quote]

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must’ve been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?[/quote]

Answer 1: Phoenix
Answer 2: California

Conclusion: People are voting with their feet.

[sdrealtor]

They sure are! Here’s some fun actual data which EP seems to be allergic to using

New Listings Year over Year in June

Santa Clara -22%
San Diego – 12%

Phoenix

[img_assist|nid=27687|title=Phx inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1061|height=660]

[img_assist|nid=27686|title=Inventory compared to 2019|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=781|height=600]

[EconProf]

Thanks for the data sdr, I will concede that you indeed have access to more data than I do.
Not sure what an inventory increase says about future appreciation or population growth vs. decline though. It could be the exploding population of Phoenix simply means more people are younger and moving around while San Diegans are more settled in their abode.
I do recall seeing several sources claiming Phoenix appreciation rates are very high–maybe you can enlighten us on that data.
After that, perhaps it is time to let this thread die a natural death. Its over a year and a half old, nine pages long, and all sides have presented their data.
For the record, I am fully aware of the charms of San Diego, and not just the weather. I was blessed financially by the RE appreciation rates, but I also worked my butt off prepping vacancies for the next tenant, some of whom had a big-screen TV way before my family.
I’ll abstain from further commenting unless I really feel the urge…meaning I overindulge in wine some night.

[sdrealtor]

Phoenix was #1 in appreciation though just above SD. It was due to rampant speculation and investors. That was not the case here. That unwinding and there is still massive amounts of undeveloped land. Long term i think Phoenix will be fine it just got way ahead of itself. As for data there is tons of available and while i don’t have any for your area i can’t imagine there aren’t local stats published in your local fish wrap.

As for wine in 100+ degrees id suggest a crisp French sauv blanc or rose or perhaps an albarino. Stay away from the reds until Fall. I’m off to Napa and Sonoma in the early morning myself to enjoy all things good.

Cheers and feel free to stop by and comment as you like. This is a good thread for following the red state destination markets for those who can’t or don’t want to stay here

Hope all is well with the family. Cheers

[The-Shoveler]

So now the bets are fed to raise 100 bases points in July meeting.

Wow I think they will find themselves reversing course very fast IMO ( well if my theory holds anyway LOL)

[flyer]

EP, as I’ve said before, the nice thing about your situation is that you did the SoCal thing longer than most people ever will, and now, I’m sure, you can probably live wherever you choose, anytime you choose, just as we can.

Along with many of our business interests, we have family and friends all over CA, and elsewhere, but the majority are in CA, including our kids, so, for us, continuing to live here most of the time makes the most sense.

I talk to people all of the time who, for numerous reasons, admit they are stuck wherever they are, and couldn’t make a change–even if their lives depended on it–even some in CA. Others dreamed of living in CA, but weren’t able to make their dreams a reality for many years, so they feel they missed out on living their dreams when they were young, which is really sad.

None of the above apply to you, so, you’ve already won, and even though SG is different, the fact that you have chosen where you want to be at this time in your life doesn’t need to be defended, but, simply, enjoyed.

[sdrealtor]

Just found this in my daily real estate reading. Prices appear to be cratering and that’s without an inventory build up

Washington County, UT (St. George, fastest growing county per capita in US during pandemic): June Inventory, 1,175; Current Inventory, 1,203; Peak inventory from 7/2016 through current, 1,878 in 3/2019, pre-Covid average inventory, around 1,600
June Median Asking: $749,500; Current Median Asking: $685,000, peaked in March at $795,450

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just found this in my daily real estate reading. Prices appear to be cratering and that’s without an inventory build up

Washington County, UT (St. George, fastest growing county per capita in US during pandemic): June Inventory, 1,175; Current Inventory, 1,203; Peak inventory from 7/2016 through current, 1,878 in 3/2019, pre-Covid average inventory, around 1,600
June Median Asking: $749,500; Current Median Asking: $685,000, peaked in March at $795,450[/quote]

Still too early to tell. Current inventory is below pre-Covid average and asking prices are just meaningless. Not until we get closed prices that clearly show a trend will you have a cratering.

[sdrealtor]

Yes just like here but not as low in comparison. Last I checked we were around 40% of 2019 inventory here. Median Asking prices dropped 100k+ close to 15% in four months. Don’t ask, don’t get as my mom always told me. If that is accurate it is definitely cratering

[Author]

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