Goodbye to San Diego

[The-Shoveler]

dup

[EconProf]

Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida–you be the judge.

[Coronita]

F50…

Bingo!

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=EconProf]As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021.
[/quote]
Not sure if your statistic is for City of San Diego or County of San Diego. But if it’s for City of San Diego then the city is losing 0.35% per year. If for county it’s losing 0.16% per year. Either way it’s a pretty tiny decline.

[quote=EconProf]
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida–you be the judge.[/quote]
Sea change? Less than 1% per year is a Sea Change? The fact that you extrapolate this tiny decline into the end of good living in San Diego is showing your prejudices and biases.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf]Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida–you be the judge.[/quote]

ZombieProf is back!

This thread is about more than you and SG it is about the constant stream of decades long prognostications about the demise of CA. And yes lots of people left SD during the pandemic. I hope most of thoise youngsters are enjoying life in their parents basement back in the Midwest. Because of them my wait at the coffee shop is an extra 3 minutes each morning

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita]F50…

Bingo![/quote]

There is no F’in BINGO in San Diego

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=EconProf]
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.[/quote]

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129/san-diego/population

[img_assist|nid=27720|title=San Diego population|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=46]

[Coronita]

EconProf. Are your sources for the decline counting or not counting undocumented people in 2021….har har har.

[an]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=EconProf]
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.[/quote]

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129/san-diego/population

[img_assist|nid=27720|title=San Diego population|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=46][/quote]
Ouch

[EconProf]

To an and others:
I googled “Is San Diego gaining or losing population?”
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years’ trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want–I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don’t know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don’t know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego’s competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.

[utcsox]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=EconProf]
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.[/quote]

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129/san-diego/population

[img_assist|nid=27720|title=San Diego population|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=46][/quote]

Oftentimes the first thing that shows up in your google search query might not be the best one. In this particular case, data that is cited by EconProf is of higher quality. Per U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, San Diego County has a population of 3,286,069 in July 2021 and 3,297,252 in July 2020. If you subtract the 2021 population estimate from the 2020 population estimate, you get exactly 11,183.

Source: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html

Under Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets: Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 (SUB-EST2021) section.

[an]

[quote=utcsox][quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=EconProf]
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.[/quote]

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129/san-diego/population

[img_assist|nid=27720|title=San Diego population|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=46][/quote]

Oftentimes the first thing that shows up in your google search query might not be the best one. In this particular case, data that is cited by EconProf is of higher quality. Per U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, San Diego County has a population of 3,286,069 in July 2021 and 3,297,252 in July 2020. If you subtract the 2021 population estimate from the 2020 population estimate, you get exactly 11,183.

Source: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html

Under Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets: Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 (SUB-EST2021) section.[/quote]
2020 number is an official number and 2021 number is an estimate. Comparing official numbers to estimate is not good. Official 2010 number is 3,095,313. So, SD County officially gained 6.569% over those 10 years period. We’ll see where SD counter will officially be in 8-9 years when they release 2030 numbers. Seems like we’re debating over rounding errors at this point.

As they say, there’s lies, damn lies, and statistics. Total population changes only tell you part of the picture. Now, as for how population affects RE price, it’s more important to know what’s the population changes for people making over $200k.

Also, if population decrease as dire as portrayed, then I don’t understand why rent has gone up the way it has been over the last couple of years. Rent is as capitalistic (econ 101, supply vs demand) as you can get, IMHO.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=EconProf]To an and others:
What is clear is that San Diego’s competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.[/quote]

What a bunch of laughable malarkey. San Diego County’s population drops a third of a percent (0.33916 percent to be exact) and EconProf calls it a sea change, and claims that this drop of less than one percent is proof that people are voting with their feet. All hoping to justify their previous claims of California going to the birds. Give me a break, have the decency to put together a slightly coherent argument before posting such rubbish.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf]To an and others:
I googled “Is San Diego gaining or losing population?”
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years’ trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want–I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don’t know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don’t know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego’s competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.[/quote]

Were growing not are. Things change fast and those three markets are among the hardest hit over the last few months

[flyer]

It seems whatever may be going on with out-migration from San Diego will be eclipsed by in-migration.

Per the article below concerning various apartment projects, not to mention countless other new home, condo and apartment builds in PQ, Poway, Sorrento Mesa, etc., etc. it appears that we need to build 17,000 units PER YEAR, just to keep up with demand, and we are no where near that number. Also, don’t forget many of the thousands of apartment dwellers aspire to be homeowners one day.

The rest of CA wrt housing may tell a different story, but, from a real estate perspective, San Diego seems to be looking good well into the future.

https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/massive-housing-developments-to-open-around-county

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