[EconProf]

Thank you sdr for the request.

We are still glad we moved to St. George, UT from San Diego for all the reasons I have cited.  But as you have pointed out, its not for everyone.  I miss the weather, the big city cultural attractions, the ocean, etc.  But the growth in population here vs. California’s decline has made our RE market more profitable, and our house and three condos have appreciated accordingly.  Admittedly, part of the reason for our move was the small city friendliness, our son and his family, and the culture that is Utah.  The latter results in a clean and efficient government, low taxes and remarkably low utility rates, proximity to everything, and scenery–we can see snow-capped mountains from our back yard.  Last Saturday we had our Ironman competition with participants from all over the world–2.4 mile swim, 112 bike distance, 26 mi. run.

Admittedly, much of our reason for moving was our age–we’re old!  But I remember fondly our time in San Diego, and appreciate our gain in net worth as we invested in houses, apts, and commercial properties in the 80’s 90’s and up to 2015.  Best wishes to all my Pigg colleagues.

 

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor]That makes sense. Its easier for large but not densely populated states to grow percentagewise than small densely populated ones[/quote]

You are correct sdr, as usual.

FWIW, I just got a condo vacancy, 3Br 2 Ba, 2-car garage. Will charge $1700, which will be highest rent in the complex. Potential renters beating down the door to see it. No one puts up For Rent signs here–just put the word out to acquaintances.

Our housing price future is uncertain because of two opposing forces: The jump in interest rates vs. influx of people and businesses.

[EconProf]

Whoops! I meant this to be the start of a new OT thread. Either I goofed up or, Rich T. informs me by text that they are “migrating the site to a new host”, whatever that means.
Anyway, apologies to sdr, and to all my fellow Piggs, happy holidays. Hope this “warms the cockles of your heart”.
Best,
EconProf

[EconProf]

A Landlord’sTale
Here is a true story about a series of events I went through some two to three decades ago in San Diego. It should make for good cheer in this Christmas season.
It happened in several phases, and I’ll start toward the end.
I walked into a “tenants attorney” office with a someone else’s tenant and paid a sleaze-ball attorney (SBA) several hundred dollars in cash to defend against an eviction.
How do I know he was a SBA? I had gone against him months ago in an eviction from one of my buildings, a 4-plex in Santee. The SBA was known for defending every kind of tenant with any means possible, no matter how egregious the tenants’ actions (OK, that’s our legal system–everyone needs needs legal representative), and no matter what dirty tactics he had to use in the process.
In my Santee case, the tenant–a family of four with two kids under ten years old–was a druggie doing great harm to the apartment, the other tenants, and probably his family. He said he would use SBA To stop or greatly delay the eviction so he seemingly had used him in the past. The last time I had tried to collect his overdue rent he was lying on a sofa in the living room with his family, high as a kite, with his legs shaking from his drug high. Of course, he scared my other three tenants. He said he was a carpenter and if he were to be evicted he would take a framing hammer to all the sheetrock in the apartment. I ended up with a “cash for keys” ($500) outcome plus ten days more possession.
Back to the middle of this tale. A year or so later, I was having a McDonalds lunch at their El Cajon Avenue and (about) about 27th Street location. I at a long table amongst several other customers, including a mixed-race female in her late twenties while I read the paper and ate. Finished up, drove to a Home Depot store to buy landlord’s supplies and at the check-out counter discovered I did not have my billfold in my pocket. Alarmed, I guessed the McDonald’s must be where I left it. With little hope of recovery, I drove back. As I parked there, the lady was in front of the McDonalds, waving my billfold in the air. Thanked her profusely and we went inside and talked for half an hour, each explaining our background, employment, etc.
She worked at cleaning up at a downtown restaurant, low paying, and lived in one of those ancient, now-gone single room occupancy (SRO) former hotels with the bathroom down the hall. She said she was now being unfairly evicted and though I don’t remember the details, I felt she was right.
Footnote: She didn’t have the accent of most US blacks, so I delved into her past. Turns out her dad was a Black man serving in the US military in Japan, and her mom was Japanese. Such mixed race children do not fare well in Japan, so her father, whom she adores, brought her back here and now lives far away.
She was distressed because she could not afford the initial fee attorneys charge to begin to fight an eviction.
You can guess what I had to do next. I drove her to the office of the SBA, where I paid the fee for her to fight the eviction. Of course she won, probably without going to trial, as this landlord had to know the reputation of said SBA.
We exchanged letters for a while, with her telling me of her progress, and calling me “her Angel” for helping her. My wife and I enjoyed the letters, and eventually I let the contacts lapse.
Conclusions: Don’t judge people by their appearance, race, or financial status.
Also, poor people can be astonishingly ethical and honest.

[EconProf]

Phaster and sdr:
Water is indeed a big issue here, and the drought throughout the western states, hopefully temporary, needs to be addressed. Fortunately, solutions exist, especially using different pricing mechanisms.
My water & sewer bill is about a quarter of what I paid in San Diego (for two people, no lawn in either place). So raise the price per gallon.
This will also discourage the hay and alfalfa growing in the area wherein massive sprinkler systems on big wheels throw out water at 4:00 in the heat of the afternoon to acres of farmland growing hay and alfalfa. Get the feed for our horses and cattle from the Midwest where rainfall is more abundant. BTW, the growing of those crops may explain the rediculous claim by the Washington Post and Guardian that our per capita water consumption is twice that of other areas.
Take agriculture watering out of the calculation and our water consumption per capita would collapse. I believe new housing already cannot have lawns, so artificial turf or desert landscaping is the norm. Lots of people have replaced grass with artificial turf, and more may do so with proper pricing.

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just read an article that over 30% of employment in St George is in construction. What’s that gonna look like next year EP?[/quote]

shees, sdr, you just won’t leave this thread die a natural death.
I guess you are saying the higher interest rates will choke off the St. George economy because we are so dependent on construction jobs.
For starters, people and employers are still flocking to St. George. You could double mortgage rates and a given house will still cost less per month than in any big CA city. Plug in utility rates, property taxes, cost of living, etc. and it’s no contest. Our unemployment rate is 2.1%.
There is no way construction jobs are over 30%. Your source, please.
A little googling revealed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that the category of “mining, logging, and construction” constituted 12.7% of the St. George civilian work force.

[EconProf]

To an and others:
I googled “Is San Diego gaining or losing population?”
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years’ trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want–I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don’t know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don’t know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego’s competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.

[EconProf]

Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That’s population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida–you be the judge.

[EconProf]

Thanks for the data sdr, I will concede that you indeed have access to more data than I do.
Not sure what an inventory increase says about future appreciation or population growth vs. decline though. It could be the exploding population of Phoenix simply means more people are younger and moving around while San Diegans are more settled in their abode.
I do recall seeing several sources claiming Phoenix appreciation rates are very high–maybe you can enlighten us on that data.
After that, perhaps it is time to let this thread die a natural death. Its over a year and a half old, nine pages long, and all sides have presented their data.
For the record, I am fully aware of the charms of San Diego, and not just the weather. I was blessed financially by the RE appreciation rates, but I also worked my butt off prepping vacancies for the next tenant, some of whom had a big-screen TV way before my family.
I’ll abstain from further commenting unless I really feel the urge…meaning I overindulge in wine some night.

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?[/quote]

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must’ve been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?[/quote]

Answer 1: Phoenix
Answer 2: California

Conclusion: People are voting with their feet.

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
Hmmm…what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

[EconProf]

“…alleged CA exodus…”
Your words.
Say no more. That’s all we need to know about your “data”.

[EconProf]

Some observations from the above comments. My purpose has been to use demographic trends and population flows to predict RE values. My hope is to share information that may be useful to other Piggs in their decision- making. sdr and some others disagree and have their own data points and claim, wrongly, that I’ve put out no facts.
sdr claims, correctly, that St. George/Washington City is the size of Oceanside. So what? Question: is Oceanside growing? I honestly don’t know–but our area is thriving by every measure: unemployment, rents, RE prices, clean government, etc. We have a new area called Tech Ridge which is the incubator for many new firms. Our Utah Technical University grew 10% per year throughout COVID, while other university enrollments, on average, continue to shrink, perhaps because employers have learned to stay away from their “woke” agendas.
Final comment, I thought this whole subject had exhausted itself and was long gone. In fact, the last entry was February 28 of this year, and then it died a natural death. That is until sdr revived it months later with a criticism of our weather. That got the ball rolling again, including, quoting sdr “…As for this thread & EP this thread stays active & pops up regularly”. Uh, no, unless you keep reviving it.

[EconProf]

sdr: I accept all your numbers, but what does it prove?
Assuming “inventory” means houses on the market, does the inventory/population ratio predict future price trends? Or does it mean people in those cities move a lot, or existing owners want to cash in on their sudden capital gain, or the recent jump in interest rates prompts fence-sitters to try to sell and move up in the same city, or …what? I honestly don’t know.
What counts, and is readily measured, is where people are moving from and where people are moving to. And, importantly, what kind of people. The techies that are moving from CA to Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc. does not bode well for San Diego, which is now losing population in an absolute sense after being a refuge from LA and Bay area escapees. And what kind of people are moving TO San Diego (hint: where would you most like to be homeless?)
Snark aside, I’m not sure what your data proves.

[EconProf]

[quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?

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