[CA renter]

This thread is a good reminder to me that there are both bears (I consider myself one) and lunatics on this board.
————————

Just remember that those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.” Now that a few years have passed, everyone is on this train and the “lunatics” were exactly right.

It’s best to look at pre-2001 prices (before the “credit bubble”, not including the portion between 1982 and 2001). Remember that in 2001, people were in much better shape than they are today, debt-wise. Add to that, we will likely see severe problems in the financial world, and things do not look so good for real estate. Overall, there is a very powerful global deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to stave off since 1982, via credit inflation/expansion.

Unless we see more stable, quality jobs in the U.S., we cannot say for sure what will happen to asset prices in the U.S.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

unbiasedobserver,

Agree with you 100%.

BTW, I hope nobody took my post above as being “bullish.” I’ve long said that I don’t expect things to turn around (prices going back up in a sustained way) until around 2012, and that’s IF there’s no severe recession/depression and IF the govt doesn’t get involved. With a recession and govt “help”, the downturn will last even longer, IMHO.

[CA renter]

unbiasedobserver,

Agree with you 100%.

BTW, I hope nobody took my post above as being “bullish.” I’ve long said that I don’t expect things to turn around (prices going back up in a sustained way) until around 2012, and that’s IF there’s no severe recession/depression and IF the govt doesn’t get involved. With a recession and govt “help”, the downturn will last even longer, IMHO.

[CA renter]

unbiasedobserver,

Agree with you 100%.

BTW, I hope nobody took my post above as being “bullish.” I’ve long said that I don’t expect things to turn around (prices going back up in a sustained way) until around 2012, and that’s IF there’s no severe recession/depression and IF the govt doesn’t get involved. With a recession and govt “help”, the downturn will last even longer, IMHO.

[CA renter]

unbiasedobserver,

Agree with you 100%.

BTW, I hope nobody took my post above as being “bullish.” I’ve long said that I don’t expect things to turn around (prices going back up in a sustained way) until around 2012, and that’s IF there’s no severe recession/depression and IF the govt doesn’t get involved. With a recession and govt “help”, the downturn will last even longer, IMHO.

[CA renter]

unbiasedobserver,

Agree with you 100%.

BTW, I hope nobody took my post above as being “bullish.” I’ve long said that I don’t expect things to turn around (prices going back up in a sustained way) until around 2012, and that’s IF there’s no severe recession/depression and IF the govt doesn’t get involved. With a recession and govt “help”, the downturn will last even longer, IMHO.

[CA renter]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks. This is in the North County area (Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, and Olivenhain, in particular).

We’re seeing traffic like it was 2004/2005 again. When we pull up to an open house, two or three cars (or more!) are pulling up behind us. A number of families with kids and heard a few people asking the agents about REOs because they wanted to buy more “investment” properties. VERY busy, and even the realtors seem to be taken by surprise.

It will be interesting to see if anything actually goes through and for what price, but there is definitely some activity right now. Hope it’s short and shallow. We’ll see…

[CA renter]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks. This is in the North County area (Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, and Olivenhain, in particular).

We’re seeing traffic like it was 2004/2005 again. When we pull up to an open house, two or three cars (or more!) are pulling up behind us. A number of families with kids and heard a few people asking the agents about REOs because they wanted to buy more “investment” properties. VERY busy, and even the realtors seem to be taken by surprise.

It will be interesting to see if anything actually goes through and for what price, but there is definitely some activity right now. Hope it’s short and shallow. We’ll see…

[CA renter]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks. This is in the North County area (Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, and Olivenhain, in particular).

We’re seeing traffic like it was 2004/2005 again. When we pull up to an open house, two or three cars (or more!) are pulling up behind us. A number of families with kids and heard a few people asking the agents about REOs because they wanted to buy more “investment” properties. VERY busy, and even the realtors seem to be taken by surprise.

It will be interesting to see if anything actually goes through and for what price, but there is definitely some activity right now. Hope it’s short and shallow. We’ll see…

[CA renter]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks. This is in the North County area (Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, and Olivenhain, in particular).

We’re seeing traffic like it was 2004/2005 again. When we pull up to an open house, two or three cars (or more!) are pulling up behind us. A number of families with kids and heard a few people asking the agents about REOs because they wanted to buy more “investment” properties. VERY busy, and even the realtors seem to be taken by surprise.

It will be interesting to see if anything actually goes through and for what price, but there is definitely some activity right now. Hope it’s short and shallow. We’ll see…

[Author]

Posts