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masayako.
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February 24, 2008 at 9:24 PM #159617February 24, 2008 at 10:12 PM #159233
hpi
ParticipantI am not sure 40% drop is possible, because the calculation of rent vs buy can only support 10-20% drop, if rent is supposed to be equal to the holding cost of same property (interest, property tax, hoa). While historically the holding cost is bigger than rent in california.
I bet investors or speculators will start to jump back to the market with another 10% drop of RE price, which is the best way to offset the inflation, if inflation is under way. The SD market has been heavily influenced by investment and speculation activities unfortunately. This was a special market and will always be.
February 24, 2008 at 10:12 PM #159528ParticipantI am not sure 40% drop is possible, because the calculation of rent vs buy can only support 10-20% drop, if rent is supposed to be equal to the holding cost of same property (interest, property tax, hoa). While historically the holding cost is bigger than rent in california.
I bet investors or speculators will start to jump back to the market with another 10% drop of RE price, which is the best way to offset the inflation, if inflation is under way. The SD market has been heavily influenced by investment and speculation activities unfortunately. This was a special market and will always be.
February 24, 2008 at 10:12 PM #159543ParticipantI am not sure 40% drop is possible, because the calculation of rent vs buy can only support 10-20% drop, if rent is supposed to be equal to the holding cost of same property (interest, property tax, hoa). While historically the holding cost is bigger than rent in california.
I bet investors or speculators will start to jump back to the market with another 10% drop of RE price, which is the best way to offset the inflation, if inflation is under way. The SD market has been heavily influenced by investment and speculation activities unfortunately. This was a special market and will always be.
February 24, 2008 at 10:12 PM #159549ParticipantI am not sure 40% drop is possible, because the calculation of rent vs buy can only support 10-20% drop, if rent is supposed to be equal to the holding cost of same property (interest, property tax, hoa). While historically the holding cost is bigger than rent in california.
I bet investors or speculators will start to jump back to the market with another 10% drop of RE price, which is the best way to offset the inflation, if inflation is under way. The SD market has been heavily influenced by investment and speculation activities unfortunately. This was a special market and will always be.
February 24, 2008 at 10:12 PM #159621ParticipantI am not sure 40% drop is possible, because the calculation of rent vs buy can only support 10-20% drop, if rent is supposed to be equal to the holding cost of same property (interest, property tax, hoa). While historically the holding cost is bigger than rent in california.
I bet investors or speculators will start to jump back to the market with another 10% drop of RE price, which is the best way to offset the inflation, if inflation is under way. The SD market has been heavily influenced by investment and speculation activities unfortunately. This was a special market and will always be.
February 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM #159273CA renter
ParticipantThis thread is a good reminder to me that there are both bears (I consider myself one) and lunatics on this board.
————————Just remember that those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.” Now that a few years have passed, everyone is on this train and the “lunatics” were exactly right.
It’s best to look at pre-2001 prices (before the “credit bubble”, not including the portion between 1982 and 2001). Remember that in 2001, people were in much better shape than they are today, debt-wise. Add to that, we will likely see severe problems in the financial world, and things do not look so good for real estate. Overall, there is a very powerful global deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to stave off since 1982, via credit inflation/expansion.
Unless we see more stable, quality jobs in the U.S., we cannot say for sure what will happen to asset prices in the U.S.
February 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM #159568ParticipantThis thread is a good reminder to me that there are both bears (I consider myself one) and lunatics on this board.
————————Just remember that those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.” Now that a few years have passed, everyone is on this train and the “lunatics” were exactly right.
It’s best to look at pre-2001 prices (before the “credit bubble”, not including the portion between 1982 and 2001). Remember that in 2001, people were in much better shape than they are today, debt-wise. Add to that, we will likely see severe problems in the financial world, and things do not look so good for real estate. Overall, there is a very powerful global deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to stave off since 1982, via credit inflation/expansion.
Unless we see more stable, quality jobs in the U.S., we cannot say for sure what will happen to asset prices in the U.S.
February 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM #159582ParticipantThis thread is a good reminder to me that there are both bears (I consider myself one) and lunatics on this board.
————————Just remember that those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.” Now that a few years have passed, everyone is on this train and the “lunatics” were exactly right.
It’s best to look at pre-2001 prices (before the “credit bubble”, not including the portion between 1982 and 2001). Remember that in 2001, people were in much better shape than they are today, debt-wise. Add to that, we will likely see severe problems in the financial world, and things do not look so good for real estate. Overall, there is a very powerful global deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to stave off since 1982, via credit inflation/expansion.
Unless we see more stable, quality jobs in the U.S., we cannot say for sure what will happen to asset prices in the U.S.
February 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM #159588ParticipantThis thread is a good reminder to me that there are both bears (I consider myself one) and lunatics on this board.
————————Just remember that those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.” Now that a few years have passed, everyone is on this train and the “lunatics” were exactly right.
It’s best to look at pre-2001 prices (before the “credit bubble”, not including the portion between 1982 and 2001). Remember that in 2001, people were in much better shape than they are today, debt-wise. Add to that, we will likely see severe problems in the financial world, and things do not look so good for real estate. Overall, there is a very powerful global deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to stave off since 1982, via credit inflation/expansion.
Unless we see more stable, quality jobs in the U.S., we cannot say for sure what will happen to asset prices in the U.S.
February 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM #159661ParticipantThis thread is a good reminder to me that there are both bears (I consider myself one) and lunatics on this board.
————————Just remember that those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.” Now that a few years have passed, everyone is on this train and the “lunatics” were exactly right.
It’s best to look at pre-2001 prices (before the “credit bubble”, not including the portion between 1982 and 2001). Remember that in 2001, people were in much better shape than they are today, debt-wise. Add to that, we will likely see severe problems in the financial world, and things do not look so good for real estate. Overall, there is a very powerful global deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to stave off since 1982, via credit inflation/expansion.
Unless we see more stable, quality jobs in the U.S., we cannot say for sure what will happen to asset prices in the U.S.
February 25, 2008 at 5:59 AM #1593674plexowner
Participant“those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.””
visionaries are considered whacko nutjobs until history proves them correct
February 25, 2008 at 5:59 AM #159665Participant“those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.””
visionaries are considered whacko nutjobs until history proves them correct
February 25, 2008 at 5:59 AM #159678Participant“those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.””
visionaries are considered whacko nutjobs until history proves them correct
February 25, 2008 at 5:59 AM #159684Participant“those who predicted a recession, derivative & credit market chaos, 40%+ price declines, etc. back in 2004 and prior were considered “lunatics.””
visionaries are considered whacko nutjobs until history proves them correct
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