We’ve hit bottom and RE is looking golden again

[paramount]

I received an email on Monday from Centex in Temecula thanking everyone who has provided references, because they just sold 6 houses last weekend alone!

I think it’s pure BS.

[Mean Reversion]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks.

Mortgage rates were again at historic lows the last few weeks. This has spurred buying and refi interest. That’s good.

Conversely, today, mortgage rates jumped the most ever in one day. That’s not good.

All in all, the low rates did not last long enough for what is necessary to heal this housing market. Higher jumbo lines will help. Seasonality will help, but you have to compare year over year, and not Jan to Dec.

This market is still overpriced. But it won’t be for long if our government keeps going crazy with the money supply.

[Mean Reversion]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks.

Mortgage rates were again at historic lows the last few weeks. This has spurred buying and refi interest. That’s good.

Conversely, today, mortgage rates jumped the most ever in one day. That’s not good.

All in all, the low rates did not last long enough for what is necessary to heal this housing market. Higher jumbo lines will help. Seasonality will help, but you have to compare year over year, and not Jan to Dec.

This market is still overpriced. But it won’t be for long if our government keeps going crazy with the money supply.

[Mean Reversion]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks.

Mortgage rates were again at historic lows the last few weeks. This has spurred buying and refi interest. That’s good.

Conversely, today, mortgage rates jumped the most ever in one day. That’s not good.

All in all, the low rates did not last long enough for what is necessary to heal this housing market. Higher jumbo lines will help. Seasonality will help, but you have to compare year over year, and not Jan to Dec.

This market is still overpriced. But it won’t be for long if our government keeps going crazy with the money supply.

[Mean Reversion]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks.

Mortgage rates were again at historic lows the last few weeks. This has spurred buying and refi interest. That’s good.

Conversely, today, mortgage rates jumped the most ever in one day. That’s not good.

All in all, the low rates did not last long enough for what is necessary to heal this housing market. Higher jumbo lines will help. Seasonality will help, but you have to compare year over year, and not Jan to Dec.

This market is still overpriced. But it won’t be for long if our government keeps going crazy with the money supply.

[Mean Reversion]

I’ll say this much: things have gotten very busy at open houses just in the past few weeks.

Mortgage rates were again at historic lows the last few weeks. This has spurred buying and refi interest. That’s good.

Conversely, today, mortgage rates jumped the most ever in one day. That’s not good.

All in all, the low rates did not last long enough for what is necessary to heal this housing market. Higher jumbo lines will help. Seasonality will help, but you have to compare year over year, and not Jan to Dec.

This market is still overpriced. But it won’t be for long if our government keeps going crazy with the money supply.

[golfproz]

I was driving home today when I hit the remains of a cat on the road. Man that sucker bounce!

Have we officially entered the dreaded “dead cat bounce” phase? I was out this weekend looking at REOs and a few new developments in Riverside and they were actually quite busy. One development had NO open parking spaces in the parking lot. I thought I was starring in an episode of the twilight zone….

[golfproz]

I was driving home today when I hit the remains of a cat on the road. Man that sucker bounce!

Have we officially entered the dreaded “dead cat bounce” phase? I was out this weekend looking at REOs and a few new developments in Riverside and they were actually quite busy. One development had NO open parking spaces in the parking lot. I thought I was starring in an episode of the twilight zone….

[golfproz]

I was driving home today when I hit the remains of a cat on the road. Man that sucker bounce!

Have we officially entered the dreaded “dead cat bounce” phase? I was out this weekend looking at REOs and a few new developments in Riverside and they were actually quite busy. One development had NO open parking spaces in the parking lot. I thought I was starring in an episode of the twilight zone….

[golfproz]

I was driving home today when I hit the remains of a cat on the road. Man that sucker bounce!

Have we officially entered the dreaded “dead cat bounce” phase? I was out this weekend looking at REOs and a few new developments in Riverside and they were actually quite busy. One development had NO open parking spaces in the parking lot. I thought I was starring in an episode of the twilight zone….

[golfproz]

I was driving home today when I hit the remains of a cat on the road. Man that sucker bounce!

Have we officially entered the dreaded “dead cat bounce” phase? I was out this weekend looking at REOs and a few new developments in Riverside and they were actually quite busy. One development had NO open parking spaces in the parking lot. I thought I was starring in an episode of the twilight zone….

[Bugs]

The bulls can say whatever they want, but none of that changes the current supply/demand dynamic. There are way too many listings, way too many of those listings are distressed sellers (and that percentage is increasing), and there are too few real buyers to make a dent in the inventory.

Based on what’s happening right now, prices can basically only do the one thing. The luxury home market isn’t moving as fast yet, but their turn is coming too.

I just reviewed a residential appraisal on a 1950s dogbox for one of my clients today. The appraiser in that assignment used 3 sales that had closed within the last 90 days as well as a pending sale and an active listing, and based on the active listing he still had to value the property lower than any of the closed sales. By $20,000. The property was only valued at $400k.

In 22 years of appraising I have NEVER seen prices decrease this quickly. Some of you may remember when I mentioned last year that a 10% – 12% rate of decline is a lot of movement in a residential market. Well, it still is, but a -20% movement in a single year is positively smoking. It’s the polar opposite of the bulls’ “hot market”.

[Bugs]

The bulls can say whatever they want, but none of that changes the current supply/demand dynamic. There are way too many listings, way too many of those listings are distressed sellers (and that percentage is increasing), and there are too few real buyers to make a dent in the inventory.

Based on what’s happening right now, prices can basically only do the one thing. The luxury home market isn’t moving as fast yet, but their turn is coming too.

I just reviewed a residential appraisal on a 1950s dogbox for one of my clients today. The appraiser in that assignment used 3 sales that had closed within the last 90 days as well as a pending sale and an active listing, and based on the active listing he still had to value the property lower than any of the closed sales. By $20,000. The property was only valued at $400k.

In 22 years of appraising I have NEVER seen prices decrease this quickly. Some of you may remember when I mentioned last year that a 10% – 12% rate of decline is a lot of movement in a residential market. Well, it still is, but a -20% movement in a single year is positively smoking. It’s the polar opposite of the bulls’ “hot market”.

[Bugs]

The bulls can say whatever they want, but none of that changes the current supply/demand dynamic. There are way too many listings, way too many of those listings are distressed sellers (and that percentage is increasing), and there are too few real buyers to make a dent in the inventory.

Based on what’s happening right now, prices can basically only do the one thing. The luxury home market isn’t moving as fast yet, but their turn is coming too.

I just reviewed a residential appraisal on a 1950s dogbox for one of my clients today. The appraiser in that assignment used 3 sales that had closed within the last 90 days as well as a pending sale and an active listing, and based on the active listing he still had to value the property lower than any of the closed sales. By $20,000. The property was only valued at $400k.

In 22 years of appraising I have NEVER seen prices decrease this quickly. Some of you may remember when I mentioned last year that a 10% – 12% rate of decline is a lot of movement in a residential market. Well, it still is, but a -20% movement in a single year is positively smoking. It’s the polar opposite of the bulls’ “hot market”.

[Bugs]

The bulls can say whatever they want, but none of that changes the current supply/demand dynamic. There are way too many listings, way too many of those listings are distressed sellers (and that percentage is increasing), and there are too few real buyers to make a dent in the inventory.

Based on what’s happening right now, prices can basically only do the one thing. The luxury home market isn’t moving as fast yet, but their turn is coming too.

I just reviewed a residential appraisal on a 1950s dogbox for one of my clients today. The appraiser in that assignment used 3 sales that had closed within the last 90 days as well as a pending sale and an active listing, and based on the active listing he still had to value the property lower than any of the closed sales. By $20,000. The property was only valued at $400k.

In 22 years of appraising I have NEVER seen prices decrease this quickly. Some of you may remember when I mentioned last year that a 10% – 12% rate of decline is a lot of movement in a residential market. Well, it still is, but a -20% movement in a single year is positively smoking. It’s the polar opposite of the bulls’ “hot market”.

[Author]

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