We’ve hit bottom and RE is looking golden again

[Eugene]

Coincidentally, it seems a few happened starting around this time of the year (1991, 1992, 1994).

That’s a seasonal phenomenon, you’ll see it every year in every city. HPI peaks approx 1% above 12-month moving average in August and bottoms 1% below the average in February. Probably has something to do with the fact that people with kids don’t like to move during the school year.

This time it may be irrelevant for the following reason

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[robson]

esmith, I couldn’t agree more. Gotta love that graph. The seasonality you describe shows up in the current downtrend in the form of reduced rate of slowdown in spring/summer and increased rate of slowdown in fall/winter. Similar to 1993 or 1995, only much more negative pressure.
Anyway, while you are right that in this market it is not really too important to know the impact of seasonality, in the future it likely will be and readers should be aware of this as a tool to help recognize the difference between a bounce and a trend.

[robson]

esmith, I couldn’t agree more. Gotta love that graph. The seasonality you describe shows up in the current downtrend in the form of reduced rate of slowdown in spring/summer and increased rate of slowdown in fall/winter. Similar to 1993 or 1995, only much more negative pressure.
Anyway, while you are right that in this market it is not really too important to know the impact of seasonality, in the future it likely will be and readers should be aware of this as a tool to help recognize the difference between a bounce and a trend.

[robson]

esmith, I couldn’t agree more. Gotta love that graph. The seasonality you describe shows up in the current downtrend in the form of reduced rate of slowdown in spring/summer and increased rate of slowdown in fall/winter. Similar to 1993 or 1995, only much more negative pressure.
Anyway, while you are right that in this market it is not really too important to know the impact of seasonality, in the future it likely will be and readers should be aware of this as a tool to help recognize the difference between a bounce and a trend.

[robson]

esmith, I couldn’t agree more. Gotta love that graph. The seasonality you describe shows up in the current downtrend in the form of reduced rate of slowdown in spring/summer and increased rate of slowdown in fall/winter. Similar to 1993 or 1995, only much more negative pressure.
Anyway, while you are right that in this market it is not really too important to know the impact of seasonality, in the future it likely will be and readers should be aware of this as a tool to help recognize the difference between a bounce and a trend.

[robson]

esmith, I couldn’t agree more. Gotta love that graph. The seasonality you describe shows up in the current downtrend in the form of reduced rate of slowdown in spring/summer and increased rate of slowdown in fall/winter. Similar to 1993 or 1995, only much more negative pressure.
Anyway, while you are right that in this market it is not really too important to know the impact of seasonality, in the future it likely will be and readers should be aware of this as a tool to help recognize the difference between a bounce and a trend.

[an]

esmith, I love that graph. Makes the 1990 crash look very mild. This time, we just fell off a cliff. How deep will this rabbit hole go is anyone’s guess.

[an]

esmith, I love that graph. Makes the 1990 crash look very mild. This time, we just fell off a cliff. How deep will this rabbit hole go is anyone’s guess.

[an]

esmith, I love that graph. Makes the 1990 crash look very mild. This time, we just fell off a cliff. How deep will this rabbit hole go is anyone’s guess.

[an]

esmith, I love that graph. Makes the 1990 crash look very mild. This time, we just fell off a cliff. How deep will this rabbit hole go is anyone’s guess.

[an]

esmith, I love that graph. Makes the 1990 crash look very mild. This time, we just fell off a cliff. How deep will this rabbit hole go is anyone’s guess.

[Bugs]

The 1996-2005 upside went twice as long and reached three times as high as the 1986-1990 upside. At it’s peak in early-1990 prices were only about 25% above the long term trendline. If it qualified as a bubble, it was just barely a bubble.

That graph really illustrates the point. Kinda brings new meaning to the bulls’ favorite line – “this time it really is different”.

[Bugs]

The 1996-2005 upside went twice as long and reached three times as high as the 1986-1990 upside. At it’s peak in early-1990 prices were only about 25% above the long term trendline. If it qualified as a bubble, it was just barely a bubble.

That graph really illustrates the point. Kinda brings new meaning to the bulls’ favorite line – “this time it really is different”.

[Bugs]

The 1996-2005 upside went twice as long and reached three times as high as the 1986-1990 upside. At it’s peak in early-1990 prices were only about 25% above the long term trendline. If it qualified as a bubble, it was just barely a bubble.

That graph really illustrates the point. Kinda brings new meaning to the bulls’ favorite line – “this time it really is different”.

[Bugs]

The 1996-2005 upside went twice as long and reached three times as high as the 1986-1990 upside. At it’s peak in early-1990 prices were only about 25% above the long term trendline. If it qualified as a bubble, it was just barely a bubble.

That graph really illustrates the point. Kinda brings new meaning to the bulls’ favorite line – “this time it really is different”.

[Author]

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