We’ve hit bottom and RE is looking golden again

[Bugs]

The bulls can say whatever they want, but none of that changes the current supply/demand dynamic. There are way too many listings, way too many of those listings are distressed sellers (and that percentage is increasing), and there are too few real buyers to make a dent in the inventory.

Based on what’s happening right now, prices can basically only do the one thing. The luxury home market isn’t moving as fast yet, but their turn is coming too.

I just reviewed a residential appraisal on a 1950s dogbox for one of my clients today. The appraiser in that assignment used 3 sales that had closed within the last 90 days as well as a pending sale and an active listing, and based on the active listing he still had to value the property lower than any of the closed sales. By $20,000. The property was only valued at $400k.

In 22 years of appraising I have NEVER seen prices decrease this quickly. Some of you may remember when I mentioned last year that a 10% – 12% rate of decline is a lot of movement in a residential market. Well, it still is, but a -20% movement in a single year is positively smoking. It’s the polar opposite of the bulls’ “hot market”.

[citydweller]

I have been following the Mission Valley (92108) market for the past 2 years as a potential investor for a rental condo. 2 years ago there was NOTHING listed for under $200K. Currently there are 31 units available for under $200K. If I were not very educated in where the market is going, I would probably think that now is a good time to jump in and start picking up investment properties.
However, there are also 95 properties in Mission Valley that are currently in default. I think I’ll wait until the default numbers start to decrease before I even think about jumping in.

[citydweller]

I have been following the Mission Valley (92108) market for the past 2 years as a potential investor for a rental condo. 2 years ago there was NOTHING listed for under $200K. Currently there are 31 units available for under $200K. If I were not very educated in where the market is going, I would probably think that now is a good time to jump in and start picking up investment properties.
However, there are also 95 properties in Mission Valley that are currently in default. I think I’ll wait until the default numbers start to decrease before I even think about jumping in.

[citydweller]

I have been following the Mission Valley (92108) market for the past 2 years as a potential investor for a rental condo. 2 years ago there was NOTHING listed for under $200K. Currently there are 31 units available for under $200K. If I were not very educated in where the market is going, I would probably think that now is a good time to jump in and start picking up investment properties.
However, there are also 95 properties in Mission Valley that are currently in default. I think I’ll wait until the default numbers start to decrease before I even think about jumping in.

[citydweller]

I have been following the Mission Valley (92108) market for the past 2 years as a potential investor for a rental condo. 2 years ago there was NOTHING listed for under $200K. Currently there are 31 units available for under $200K. If I were not very educated in where the market is going, I would probably think that now is a good time to jump in and start picking up investment properties.
However, there are also 95 properties in Mission Valley that are currently in default. I think I’ll wait until the default numbers start to decrease before I even think about jumping in.

[citydweller]

I have been following the Mission Valley (92108) market for the past 2 years as a potential investor for a rental condo. 2 years ago there was NOTHING listed for under $200K. Currently there are 31 units available for under $200K. If I were not very educated in where the market is going, I would probably think that now is a good time to jump in and start picking up investment properties.
However, there are also 95 properties in Mission Valley that are currently in default. I think I’ll wait until the default numbers start to decrease before I even think about jumping in.

[jpinpb]

Bugs – Thanks for your comment. For a minute reading through this forum, I thought I slipped into a Twilight Zone episode and I was back in time a few years ago. Was breaking into a cold sweat and thought all those economists saying on their most positive moments that it would be a year before there’s any recovery was just BS. My heart was beginning to race and I was beginning to hear the mantra from the Realtwhores about “Now’s the time to buy” again.

Thanks for the reality check. That’s right. Too much inventory and much more on the way. Everyone wants to buy, BUT few are qualified, so less demand. That can only mean one thing.

It is impressive to have a 20% drop in a year. It’s also impressive how you can’t bring the realtors down and they are perpetually positive on the market always. Astonishing.

[jpinpb]

Bugs – Thanks for your comment. For a minute reading through this forum, I thought I slipped into a Twilight Zone episode and I was back in time a few years ago. Was breaking into a cold sweat and thought all those economists saying on their most positive moments that it would be a year before there’s any recovery was just BS. My heart was beginning to race and I was beginning to hear the mantra from the Realtwhores about “Now’s the time to buy” again.

Thanks for the reality check. That’s right. Too much inventory and much more on the way. Everyone wants to buy, BUT few are qualified, so less demand. That can only mean one thing.

It is impressive to have a 20% drop in a year. It’s also impressive how you can’t bring the realtors down and they are perpetually positive on the market always. Astonishing.

[jpinpb]

Bugs – Thanks for your comment. For a minute reading through this forum, I thought I slipped into a Twilight Zone episode and I was back in time a few years ago. Was breaking into a cold sweat and thought all those economists saying on their most positive moments that it would be a year before there’s any recovery was just BS. My heart was beginning to race and I was beginning to hear the mantra from the Realtwhores about “Now’s the time to buy” again.

Thanks for the reality check. That’s right. Too much inventory and much more on the way. Everyone wants to buy, BUT few are qualified, so less demand. That can only mean one thing.

It is impressive to have a 20% drop in a year. It’s also impressive how you can’t bring the realtors down and they are perpetually positive on the market always. Astonishing.

[jpinpb]

Bugs – Thanks for your comment. For a minute reading through this forum, I thought I slipped into a Twilight Zone episode and I was back in time a few years ago. Was breaking into a cold sweat and thought all those economists saying on their most positive moments that it would be a year before there’s any recovery was just BS. My heart was beginning to race and I was beginning to hear the mantra from the Realtwhores about “Now’s the time to buy” again.

Thanks for the reality check. That’s right. Too much inventory and much more on the way. Everyone wants to buy, BUT few are qualified, so less demand. That can only mean one thing.

It is impressive to have a 20% drop in a year. It’s also impressive how you can’t bring the realtors down and they are perpetually positive on the market always. Astonishing.

[jpinpb]

Bugs – Thanks for your comment. For a minute reading through this forum, I thought I slipped into a Twilight Zone episode and I was back in time a few years ago. Was breaking into a cold sweat and thought all those economists saying on their most positive moments that it would be a year before there’s any recovery was just BS. My heart was beginning to race and I was beginning to hear the mantra from the Realtwhores about “Now’s the time to buy” again.

Thanks for the reality check. That’s right. Too much inventory and much more on the way. Everyone wants to buy, BUT few are qualified, so less demand. That can only mean one thing.

It is impressive to have a 20% drop in a year. It’s also impressive how you can’t bring the realtors down and they are perpetually positive on the market always. Astonishing.

[paramount]

From Wiki:

A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”.

[paramount]

From Wiki:

A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”.

[paramount]

From Wiki:

A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”.

[paramount]

From Wiki:

A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”.

[Author]

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