[an]

[quote=barnaby33]

It’s not a hard problem to solve, just require $.

It is exactly a hard problem to solve because it is expensive to do so. Water is the foundation of our society, cheap water that is. It must be transported in bulk and is heavy. We consume more of it than our ecology can produce (at least the non-salt version.) Most importantly, people are not smart. Nobody cares as long as the taps still function.
Josh[/quote]
CA have $100b surplus in just 1 year. Spend that $ to build infrastructure to increase our supplies on stuff that keep society running instead of trying to limit demand.

Storage, recycling, and desalination would be some of the solutions. I’m sure there are more. But given the rejection of desalination in Huntington Beach, I’m not encouraged that we’ll solve the supply problem.

[an]

[quote=phaster]
spending $105B to build 105 desalination plants is simplistic thinking,… point being desalination plants and moving water requires lots of energy (so it might be a good idea to think about electrical generators)[/quote]
Of course, it’s simplistic thinking. But it can be done if we want to… but obviously, we don’t want to. We whine about it. As for energy, we have the desert east of us where we can spend another $100b to build solar farms, we can spend $100b to add a few more nuclear power plants, etc. We have the technology to solve the problems. Whether we really want to solve them is the real question. The Huntington beach desalination plant proposal was rejected. So, I don’t see it happening.

[an]

[quote=svelte]I sniffed around Zillow today.

A 20-30 yo 1900 SF home in San Marcos sold for $1.1M this month. Thinking it was an anomaly, I looked over other recent sales. Nope, not an anomaly.

Prices are absolutely insane. San Marcos is where normal middle-class folks can buy. Or at least *could* buy.

This can’t continue.

Either that or we are seeing some sort of seismic change in an extremely short time period.

Personally, I don’t think its healthy. It feels like we are well on our way to becoming the new silicon valley, given prices like these.

I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]

I agree with everything except for:
[quote=svelte]
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]
I like where we’re heading and don’t mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?

[an]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=Coronita]Basically, the way the law works is that…
If you want to classify a software engineer as “exempt” (non hourly worker), you must pay him/her/they $104.2k or higher, otherwise they must be classified as an hourly worker eligible for overtime pay.[/quote]

Wow! thanks for the break down on how that works.[/quote]
You can thank the developers in the gaming industry for this law.

[an]

$104k, AWESOME!

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]Yep. It was the middle class that was hurt the most in the last crash. It was the wealthy that benefited the most from the last bounce back. I expect the same this time around.[/quote]

The wealthy class were being destroyed in the last crash until the Fed and Paulsen, run by Wall St. Bankers, came to the rescue with endless bailouts and QE under the propaganda of “averting depression” and “too big to fail”. Obviously this is likely to happen again.[/quote]
So were the young families who lost their first home. The difference between them and the wealthy is, the wealthy still have plenty of $ so they were able to jump back in in force at the bottom and now they have a lot more money than they did in 2006-2007. However, those middle class family who had to short sale are set back by many years.

[an]

Yep. It was the middle class that was hurt the most in the last crash. It was the wealthy that benefited the most from the last bounce back. I expect the same this time around.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]
Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).

Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]
If it’s that predictable, then you’d be sitting with tens to hundreds of millions in the bank already. You might have missed the bottom in 2009, but if you leveraged to the hilt and buy a ton of real estate in 2009, you’d be sitting pretty. You’d then sell all those houses 6 months ago and take the tens of millions that you made and shorted the market by buying a TON of PUTs. By now, you’d have to have at least a few hundred million if not a billion.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.

This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.[/quote]
The real question is, did you benefited from the crash (buying PUTs or shorting the stocks)? If you didn’t, did you benefited from the 2008 bounce back? If you didn’t, will you be able to recognize the bottom and take advantage of the next run up?

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Redfin really crapping the bed now, under $9, from all time high over $90. Looks like they may win the race to zero. Really wish I had bought Puts on them, that was a big miss for me, might have been the opportunity of a lifetime.

But don’t worry, housing market will be fine. Carry on.[/quote]
Yep, I missed that opportunity of a lifetime too. Should have loaded up on PUTs. But now that these stocks are 10% of their all time high, I’m seeing a 2008 level of opportunity of a lifetime to go long as well. I’m ready this time. Imagine buying Apple at $6/share in 2008.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Tech stock getting completely demolished right now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/techs-latest-ipos-fall-with-robinhood-rivian-uipath-down-over-70percent.html

My how quickly wealth can get vaporized in a market crash.[/quote]
Hope you follow your own forecast and loaded up on PUTs.

Btw, didn’t you say a gain is not a gain till you sell?

[an]

[quote=phaster]
WRT watering restrictions in LA vs SD,… if people were smart they would start conserving and look at water as a very precious resource which is a need for people to live (AND have a working economy)

said another way w/ out water an economy is not possible AND w/ out water a person is dead[/quote]
If people were smart, they would demand the cancellation of the $105B bullet train project and spend that $105B to build 105 desalination plants. We would stop talking about water right now and people would not die from lack of water. Afterall, we have virtually limitless water right next to us. If you want to go crazy, build 1000 desalination plants or build ways to collect water from the east and create water pipelines (like oil pipelines) to bring water to the West. It’s not a hard problem to solve, just require $.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.[/quote]

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.[/quote]
100% agree. I just wish deadzone is correct about RE crashing in the next year. Would love to pick something like this up for pre-pandemic price. I would guess something like this would go for ~$750k.

[an]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]
Bullshit, show me one post from you in 2005 (or 2006) where you called a bubble and predicted a crash.

Again, cheering for housing prices to go down is not wishing bad things on people. It is a good thing for society as a whole, and particularly for the younger generations. Should people who invest recklessly lose money, yes of course. You are probably in support of all the bailouts in 2009. If you invest in risky overpriced assets and you take the risk of getting burned.[/quote]
BS. I know a few young people who got burn in the last crash buying their first house and then have to do short sale.

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