[4Sbuyer2002]

What a bunch of ignorant dumba$$es. Fires make So. Cal RE less valuable? News flash there have been fires of this type in So. Cal for all of known human history. There is lots to deflate the sky high prices in So. Cal. Santa Ana winds and fire aren’t one of them. If anything, the influx of insurance money followed by a mini re-building boom will put a significant fraction of out of work construction workers back to work and be mildly stimulative. Check out what RE prices for the unaffected area of New Orleans did after Katrina. They almost doubled. That won’t happen here but this event, as devastating for SOME as it is, wont’ affect the RE market much one way or another. If anything it may bolster it slightly.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

What a bunch of ignorant dumba$$es. Fires make So. Cal RE less valuable? News flash there have been fires of this type in So. Cal for all of known human history. There is lots to deflate the sky high prices in So. Cal. Santa Ana winds and fire aren’t one of them. If anything, the influx of insurance money followed by a mini re-building boom will put a significant fraction of out of work construction workers back to work and be mildly stimulative. Check out what RE prices for the unaffected area of New Orleans did after Katrina. They almost doubled. That won’t happen here but this event, as devastating for SOME as it is, wont’ affect the RE market much one way or another. If anything it may bolster it slightly.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

So far this is the best blog I can find for reports on where the fire is. Way to go PIGS! Does anyone know of any other active blogs with SD fire info???? It always seems that the netizens have the best and most current info.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

So far this is the best blog I can find for reports on where the fire is. Way to go PIGS! Does anyone know of any other active blogs with SD fire info???? It always seems that the netizens have the best and most current info.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

This is exactly the type of “white(or brown or black) trash” dirt bags who had no business buying in the first place. Probably a neg am liar loan. Legally, they could be sued for damages separate from the real property, win the suit, enter a judgement and garnish their wages. The idots presume since they trashed it and are getting foreclosed on anyway they are immune from liability. What dumba$$es. Once this sort rif raf is wrung out of the market it will return to some sense of normalcy.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

This is exactly the type of “white(or brown or black) trash” dirt bags who had no business buying in the first place. Probably a neg am liar loan. Legally, they could be sued for damages separate from the real property, win the suit, enter a judgement and garnish their wages. The idots presume since they trashed it and are getting foreclosed on anyway they are immune from liability. What dumba$$es. Once this sort rif raf is wrung out of the market it will return to some sense of normalcy.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Its true . . . anyone can lie about anything. However, as an attorney who has practiced RE law, I can tell you that if I spoke to an official representative of a builder and she told me “these are the sale prices” and that was an out and out lie, they could easily be sued for fraud should someone make a buying decision influenced by that statement. Most builders are very careful in this area. Especially in today’s market. I doubt she lied when she said “these are the sale prices.” The potential liability to the seller far outweighs any sort of percieved benefit of comforting perspective sellers that prices are stable.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

A weak dollar, which is contributing to the rise of the DOW (currency differential enhanced earnings for US corp. with significant overseas sales/manufacturing) is one of the contributing factors which is preventing a more precipitous decline in home prices. If one were to price US homes in the local currency (Japan, Europe, India) and then compare it to what the cost of a similar sized home in an equally nice neighborhood . . . US prices even San Diego prices are a relative bargain . . . for the wealthy foreign buyer that is. There seems to be more and more of these kinds of buyers.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

These are the “actual sale” prices of what had sold as of 3:00pm on Saturday when I went to each office and spoke in person with the rep in the office. I asked “are these the actual sale prices?” She/he said yes. Could she have lied? Of course. No I didn’t see the signed contract. However, these are NOT the flyer for what is currently available. They also indicated that they had no problem selling the units at the prices she quoted me. This explains why 6 of 7 homes sold in 6 hours from the time the phase was released in the case of Pienza.

They are actual sale prices. I did not ask re incentives. I should have. In the case of Pienza I know that they had a $40k incentive at the end of last year and cut it to $20k early this year. Whether it is still $20k, back to $40k, or zero . . . don’t know.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

The numbers I posted and used in the average calculations were all completed sales. A few had been sold twice (original buyer backed out) and resold. In the case of Pienza, they had a phase release on Saturday with 7 homes available. By 3:00pm 6 of the 7 were sold.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

My impression was that the builders were squeezing “all that the market will bear” in terms of pricing the inventory just competitive enough to move it fairly quickly. At least in a neighborhood such as 4S Ranch the prices depicted above are what the market (demand) currently supports in an area such as 4S Ranch. One note on this new inventory vs. resale (in other parts of 4S Ranch); with the current new homes available builders have reached a new low in terms of cramming as many homes into as small an area as possible. Other same square footage homes elsewhere in 4S have on average bigger yards than the current inventory. Now “bigger” is a relative term. The new homes are on postage stamp sized 5500 to 6500 sq/ft lots. Most homes elsewhere in 4S ranch have average lot sizes from 8000 to 10000 sq/ft lots. Still quite small when you consider a 1/4 lot is 12,000+/- sq/ft. Anecdotal evidence from some realtors (take it for what its worth . . . not much) indicate that this is actually helping move some of the resale inventory. Interested buyers come to view the selection of new homes because they like the area/community, are turned off by how small the lots are and discover resale homes in same community generally offer more in terms of lot and yard size. Again I heard this from 2 different realtors. Fact or fiction??? But it makes sense.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Correction: Price per square foot: $243

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

All,

In this we are in agreement . . . it is a social shame that a middle class family with 2.5 kids earning an upper middle class income can not even come close to affording an average sized SFH, with responsible financing, in a decent neighborhood within 20-30 minute commute from San Diego. It is lamentable. Sure some homeowners, who have been so for last 6-7years, have had an increase in their net worth . . . but at what macro social cost. The impact on the abilty of a middle class family to live and thrive is sad.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Bugs,

The 4.5 is fixed until November, 2012 which is just under 3 years before I retire with full benefits, sell my home, and move to Montana to be closer to family. So I have accepted an interest rate deviation risk for the years 2012 to 2015. A risk I deemed acceptible and prudent. As far as “downpayment investment capital.” Even at today’s prices for a similar home my downpayment has appreciated in value 200+% in four years. It had appreciated as high as 300 to 350% but has since retreated. As far as “now bleeding” (drop from 350% appreciation to 200%) a home is not a stock or a bar of gold. Sure it has come down from the high but you are not suggesting that once a home market hits the top the best move (financially, socially, family, etc.) is to sell at the top, rent, and reinvest the profit into alternative better returning investments are you???? Perhaps from a purely financial rate of return perspective (i.e. if I were a hope flipper) it is technically correct. I bought my home in 4S so my family can grow up, go to school, and make friends in as ideal an environment as possible. Its not all about the money. But from a money standpoint a current appreciation of 200% (100K down on 500k price for 3100 sq/ft SFH now available for 720k to 750k) something to be “grateful” for. I guess one could HELOC the equity out and invest it in the stock market but . . . that would be foolish wouldn’t it. I sleep well at 20% and fixed until November, 2012 at 4.5%. As far as I can tell, my current cost of ownership is still below the current cost to rent. Not to mention the intangible non-financial benefits of homeownership.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

PerryChase,

I don’t know the current cost to rent a 3100 sq/ft home in 4S but I think its above my cost of ownership which is as follows:

Note: These are actual numbers as opposed to estimated, often inflated, “cost of ownership” numbers often touted to make a point.

Mortgage (Int. Only 10/1 @ 4.5% on 404K) $1515 (after 20% down)
Mello Roos $240
Property Tax $700
HOA $65
Insurance $65

Total ownership cost (B4 taxes) $2585
less tax deduction 1515+940×12 divided by .28 (28% bracket) = ($687/mo.)

Monthly cost of ownership $1900

PerryChase if you know where one can rent a 3100 5bd 4.5bath home in 4S for $1900 mo. please advise I have many friends who are interested in renting a place at that price. I haven’t seen it however.

For example, http://www.rentnet.com has a 1314 sq/ft 3bd 2bth in 4S Ranch for $2090. see http://www.rentnet.com/apartments/fyp/search/brochure/brochure.jhtml?pid=481868&gate=yahoo&source=a2yaat2t857&btyp=E

As a purely monetary investment you may, or may not, be right when you speculate about the financial gain/loss outcome by 2010 of holding a home bought in 4S back in 2002. However, the home for my family along with the great environment we enjoy in 4S makes it more than a purely financial investment. To be sure your home has a huge financial investment component but its not everything (i.e. where my kids grow up and go to school etc.).

grateful owner . . . .

[Author]

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