4S ranch–Pienza Jan release

[sdcellar]

nestingcouple– I don’t know anything about Cornerstone, but Davidson’s built plenty in San Diego *and* 4S Ranch. Their Reunion development is just around the corner from Silvercrest.

[4Sbuyer2002]

What is percieved as boring or unoriginal floor plans is sometimes dictated not by a lack of creativity but a lack of space. When you have to squeeze a 3000 sq/ft SFH onto a square shaped 5000 to 6000 sq/ft lot you pretty much have to have a square two story box or it won’t fit. The trend to build as much square footage on increasingly smaller lots makes the plans seem unimaginative. I’m sure if you had 1/3 to 1/2 acre you could be much more creative.

No complaints so far about Fieldstone. No cracks etc. I do know that a few specific small areas of the South side of 4S Ranch had problems with earth settling which resulted in cracks and worse. Various builders homes were affected. These problems were no so much poor quality by the builder but poor site preparation by Newland, the Master Developer of all of 4S Ranch. Of the thousands of homes on the South side I think no more than 20-30 had settling issues.

grateful owner . . . .

[gn]

4Sbuyer2002,

Back in 2005, if you were to ask people what it would take for a 3000 sq/ft SFH in 4S to go down to $750k, many would say:

– Massive earthquake, nuclear strike …

Here we are in 2007, no earthquake, no nuclear strike. The job market is good. And the foreclosure activities are just starting to pick up.

Stay tuned. You haven’t seen anything yet.

[Cow_tipping]

I like boring straighforward boxes. They need to be easy to build (OK fine its cheaper that’s why) and they should be easy to maintain, cheap to heat and cool and right for the way I live my life. I have plenty of excitement in my life to expect it from my house. I expect my house to shelter me, not entertain me.
Anyway, I think I’ll make like a bandit when these stucco boxes are repoed by the million … just patience.
I like Brick just fine, but rock, stone or whatever crap is just a place for cobwebs and dirt to collect. Simple with good and inexpensive materials. Vinyl is fine, but dont gimme the cheapass sheite, good 6 inch beaded lap vinyl, shingles are fine, gimme good shingles not shitty paper thin.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[nla]

4Sbuyer2002: Point Taken. I agree since most of the current (or maybe former) projects by Davidson and Cornerstone have bigger lots than what you mentioned so they have more “freedom” and “creativity” as far as floor plan is concerned (i.e. adding courtyards, open/volume ceilings, etc).

Funny you mentioned about Newland. Their headquarter is next door to us (UTC/La Jolla area). I didn’t know they are the master developer of 4S until now.

Cornerstone has a project in StoneBridge: Tiburon, while Davidson has projects in Lacosta, Delsur and Stonebridge.

[4Sbuyer2002]

gn . . . “standing buy”,

Bought for 506k w 20% down on 10/1 ARM at rate of 4.5% in 2002. Have home with 3 small kids attending new schools in Poway school district playing little league baseball/soccer on new fields at incredible new athletic park. Eligible for full retirement in 2015, 3 years after ARM adjusts in 2012 . . . . “standing buy” and not going anywhere.

Newland grades and prepares groups of lots which it then sells to developers. All the common areas in 4S are also done by Newland and upon completion and acceptance turned over to 4S Master Association to run.

grateful owner . . . .

[PerryChase]

4Sbuyer2002, you bought early enough that I think that you’ll be fine and you can weather the downturn.

However, you did not buy early enough to be insulated. Your cost of ownership is still higher than rent and someone who buys a home similar to yours for the same price in 2009/2010 would be financially better off. He would have had more time to save and invest the difference between owning and renting.

For sure, you’re doing a lot better than the people who bought 2004 through 2006.

———–

I did look at the Fieldstone houses just for fun — I hate master planned communities but I did it for my brothers and other relatives as I’m now the family’s real estate expert 🙂

I too noticed that Fieldstone homes were boring (compared to other builders) and the models homes seemed less well done. It was a while ago but, if my memory serves me right, the second floor ceilings seemed lower so, while the houses are large, they didn’t feel inviting to me. Another thing is that Fieldstone houses have bedrooms but few bathrooms.

[4Sbuyer2002]

PerryChase,

I don’t know the current cost to rent a 3100 sq/ft home in 4S but I think its above my cost of ownership which is as follows:

Note: These are actual numbers as opposed to estimated, often inflated, “cost of ownership” numbers often touted to make a point.

Mortgage (Int. Only 10/1 @ 4.5% on 404K) $1515 (after 20% down)
Mello Roos $240
Property Tax $700
HOA $65
Insurance $65

Total ownership cost (B4 taxes) $2585
less tax deduction 1515+940×12 divided by .28 (28% bracket) = ($687/mo.)

Monthly cost of ownership $1900

PerryChase if you know where one can rent a 3100 5bd 4.5bath home in 4S for $1900 mo. please advise I have many friends who are interested in renting a place at that price. I haven’t seen it however.

For example, http://www.rentnet.com has a 1314 sq/ft 3bd 2bth in 4S Ranch for $2090. see http://www.rentnet.com/apartments/fyp/search/brochure/brochure.jhtml?pid=481868&gate=yahoo&source=a2yaat2t857&btyp=E

As a purely monetary investment you may, or may not, be right when you speculate about the financial gain/loss outcome by 2010 of holding a home bought in 4S back in 2002. However, the home for my family along with the great environment we enjoy in 4S makes it more than a purely financial investment. To be sure your home has a huge financial investment component but its not everything (i.e. where my kids grow up and go to school etc.).

grateful owner . . . .

[sdrealtor]

You forgot to include the cost of moving at least 4 times between 2002 and 2010 not to mention what that does to your career and family stability.

PC is a bachelor and often doesnt get there is a significant return in terms of happiness, security and finances by having your kids grow up around the same friends in a safe, secure and happy environment..

[nestingcouple]

Hi 4Sbuyer2002, Thanks for sharing the real numbers for cost of ownership. For insurance, I was using 0.4%, which is $244 a month for the house I’m looking at. Is your insurance really as low as $65?
It’s clear to me your cost of ownership is much lower than comparable rent.

[an]

Congrats 4Sbuyer2002 on being at the right place at the right time and taking advantage of the situation. I doubt we’ll ever see 4.5% interest rate again. Some of us are not as fortunate. I graduated w/ my BS in 2002-2003, which was a horrible time and it was hard enough to find a job, much less make a long term commitment like a house. Now that people like myself finally saved some money to start thinking of a house, it’s no longer at the level it was in 2004. Where we go from here is anybody guess, but my bet is on returning to fundamental. It did many times before, this time won’t be any different.

[PerryChase]

4Sbuyers2002, point well taken.

As I said, you’ll be able to weather the downturn just fine. You still have plenty of equity to get through the slump.

Several things to note about your calculations: 1) opportunity cost of down payment, 2) gardening/maintenance costs, and 3) mello-roos is not tax deductible (although many do so anyway).

[an]

PerryChase, good catch on the opportunity cost of the down payment. $100k is quit a bit of money. @ 5% return from a saving account, you’re already looking @ $415/month. @ 10%, that number grows to $830/month. But I don’t think even that will get the rent # bellow the $1900 4Sbuyers2002 came up with. Rent for that size house in 4S I think is around $3k/month.

[Bugs]

If the 4.5% interest rate is not the fixed rate of the loan then the payment represents something in between owning the home and renting it. They own the right to profit (or lose) on the resale, but they aren’t any closer to owning the asset itself than if they were renting. The tax break is about the same regardless; it’s just built into the rental rate as opposed to being separate from a mortgage payment.

The downpayment is investment capital from an investment standpoint, and at whatever point the the property isn’t appreciating faster than the rate of inflation then that investment is losing money. The investment may still be ahead, but if its currently bleeding then there are alternate investments that make better economic sense.

As for the “security” of home ownership, I think it’s somewhat overrated.

I think people sometimes project their own problems onto their kids; they feel a little displaced so they search for solutions to prevent their kids from going through that. It’s an admirable motive, but a kid doesn’t feel a relocation until they’re in school and they start to branch out from their household. Really, I think the potential for damage to a kid is a lot higher when both parents have to work obscene hours in an effort to maintain a lifestyle.

I doubt most family renters are compelled to move every 2 years unless they want to for some reason; nor do I think it’s that difficult to find similar homes in the same school area if they’re so concerned about their kids maintaining the same relationships for 7 years at a time. Trust me, by the time kids get into high school their circle of friends are generally different that what they start out with in middle school, and it extends a lot farther than their block. I would never worry about the kids – they don’t start having problems until you start changing schools at other than the start of middle school or high school.

A 2002 sales price is probably a pretty safe bet. It may not be completely “protected” from loss, but neither is it double – let alone triple – the stabilized value at the long term trendline.

[an]

Very good post bug. Also, if you noticed, it’s 4.5% IO loan, so basically, it’s renting for 10 years at $1900/month with an option to buy @ $500k price.

I totally agree with you that kids much rather have their parents home with them more than living in some fancy house. I know many people who their parents work very hard to give them the fancy cars and buy nice houses for them to live in. But they’d trade all that in a heart beat to have their parents home more with them. Their parents basically missed out all their childhood.

[Author]

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