Wow. 47% Decline for San Diego

[bsrsharma]

Based on MEDIAN PRICES June ’08 (U-T data)
Resale houses $405,000
Resale condos $259,000
New homes/condos* $490,000
All combined $370,000

If you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

Based on June ’08 prices, further price drop to reach $240K is:

Resale houses: 40%
Resale condos: 7%
New homes/condos: 51%
All combined: 35%

Considering all the variability in this scatter shot analysis, 47% seems to fit in quite well.

[EconProf]

SDRealtor: Fitch has consistently been more conservative in their ratings than Moody’s & S & P, and they lost a lot of business because of their stance.
Now they’ve put out a very pessimistic outlook while Zandi of Moody’s hints of a recovery. Let’s give credit where credit is due (no pun intended!)

[EconProf]

SDRealtor: Fitch has consistently been more conservative in their ratings than Moody’s & S & P, and they lost a lot of business because of their stance.
Now they’ve put out a very pessimistic outlook while Zandi of Moody’s hints of a recovery. Let’s give credit where credit is due (no pun intended!)

[EconProf]

SDRealtor: Fitch has consistently been more conservative in their ratings than Moody’s & S & P, and they lost a lot of business because of their stance.
Now they’ve put out a very pessimistic outlook while Zandi of Moody’s hints of a recovery. Let’s give credit where credit is due (no pun intended!)

[EconProf]

SDRealtor: Fitch has consistently been more conservative in their ratings than Moody’s & S & P, and they lost a lot of business because of their stance.
Now they’ve put out a very pessimistic outlook while Zandi of Moody’s hints of a recovery. Let’s give credit where credit is due (no pun intended!)

[EconProf]

SDRealtor: Fitch has consistently been more conservative in their ratings than Moody’s & S & P, and they lost a lot of business because of their stance.
Now they’ve put out a very pessimistic outlook while Zandi of Moody’s hints of a recovery. Let’s give credit where credit is due (no pun intended!)

[urbanrealtor]

Other agents please give me your feel on this also.

I see the wider drop as somewhat misleading.
Here is why. Housing movements do not homogenize easily.
If that average were to come true I think it would mean coming down 70% in El Cajon conversions and 3% in PB coastal.

Here is what I am seeing anecdotally.
Please sound off if you are seeing something else.
What I am seeing in the central San Diego areas is prices actively finding the bottom constantly.
The current range seems to be in the 300 for 2bedrooms department. That seems to be a number I am hearing repeated by all-cash buyers.

When doing my foreclosure tours (yes thats me) financial distress seminars, I find lots of attendees holding onto huge wads of cash and asking where to put it.

I have counseled one such buyer through 8 rejected offers in Little Italy. Thats because in each case the prices brought in buyers from out of area or out of country or just built enought enthusiasm with the price point.

At my suggestion, one of the agents in my office lowered the price of her listing next to the Ralph’s in Hillcrest to $300k. This was back in January. She had 9 full-price offers within a week.
Of course they all died because the bank drug its feet on a short sale.

What are you all seeing?

[urbanrealtor]

Other agents please give me your feel on this also.

I see the wider drop as somewhat misleading.
Here is why. Housing movements do not homogenize easily.
If that average were to come true I think it would mean coming down 70% in El Cajon conversions and 3% in PB coastal.

Here is what I am seeing anecdotally.
Please sound off if you are seeing something else.
What I am seeing in the central San Diego areas is prices actively finding the bottom constantly.
The current range seems to be in the 300 for 2bedrooms department. That seems to be a number I am hearing repeated by all-cash buyers.

When doing my foreclosure tours (yes thats me) financial distress seminars, I find lots of attendees holding onto huge wads of cash and asking where to put it.

I have counseled one such buyer through 8 rejected offers in Little Italy. Thats because in each case the prices brought in buyers from out of area or out of country or just built enought enthusiasm with the price point.

At my suggestion, one of the agents in my office lowered the price of her listing next to the Ralph’s in Hillcrest to $300k. This was back in January. She had 9 full-price offers within a week.
Of course they all died because the bank drug its feet on a short sale.

What are you all seeing?

[urbanrealtor]

Other agents please give me your feel on this also.

I see the wider drop as somewhat misleading.
Here is why. Housing movements do not homogenize easily.
If that average were to come true I think it would mean coming down 70% in El Cajon conversions and 3% in PB coastal.

Here is what I am seeing anecdotally.
Please sound off if you are seeing something else.
What I am seeing in the central San Diego areas is prices actively finding the bottom constantly.
The current range seems to be in the 300 for 2bedrooms department. That seems to be a number I am hearing repeated by all-cash buyers.

When doing my foreclosure tours (yes thats me) financial distress seminars, I find lots of attendees holding onto huge wads of cash and asking where to put it.

I have counseled one such buyer through 8 rejected offers in Little Italy. Thats because in each case the prices brought in buyers from out of area or out of country or just built enought enthusiasm with the price point.

At my suggestion, one of the agents in my office lowered the price of her listing next to the Ralph’s in Hillcrest to $300k. This was back in January. She had 9 full-price offers within a week.
Of course they all died because the bank drug its feet on a short sale.

What are you all seeing?

[urbanrealtor]

Other agents please give me your feel on this also.

I see the wider drop as somewhat misleading.
Here is why. Housing movements do not homogenize easily.
If that average were to come true I think it would mean coming down 70% in El Cajon conversions and 3% in PB coastal.

Here is what I am seeing anecdotally.
Please sound off if you are seeing something else.
What I am seeing in the central San Diego areas is prices actively finding the bottom constantly.
The current range seems to be in the 300 for 2bedrooms department. That seems to be a number I am hearing repeated by all-cash buyers.

When doing my foreclosure tours (yes thats me) financial distress seminars, I find lots of attendees holding onto huge wads of cash and asking where to put it.

I have counseled one such buyer through 8 rejected offers in Little Italy. Thats because in each case the prices brought in buyers from out of area or out of country or just built enought enthusiasm with the price point.

At my suggestion, one of the agents in my office lowered the price of her listing next to the Ralph’s in Hillcrest to $300k. This was back in January. She had 9 full-price offers within a week.
Of course they all died because the bank drug its feet on a short sale.

What are you all seeing?

[urbanrealtor]

Other agents please give me your feel on this also.

I see the wider drop as somewhat misleading.
Here is why. Housing movements do not homogenize easily.
If that average were to come true I think it would mean coming down 70% in El Cajon conversions and 3% in PB coastal.

Here is what I am seeing anecdotally.
Please sound off if you are seeing something else.
What I am seeing in the central San Diego areas is prices actively finding the bottom constantly.
The current range seems to be in the 300 for 2bedrooms department. That seems to be a number I am hearing repeated by all-cash buyers.

When doing my foreclosure tours (yes thats me) financial distress seminars, I find lots of attendees holding onto huge wads of cash and asking where to put it.

I have counseled one such buyer through 8 rejected offers in Little Italy. Thats because in each case the prices brought in buyers from out of area or out of country or just built enought enthusiasm with the price point.

At my suggestion, one of the agents in my office lowered the price of her listing next to the Ralph’s in Hillcrest to $300k. This was back in January. She had 9 full-price offers within a week.
Of course they all died because the bank drug its feet on a short sale.

What are you all seeing?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

f you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

bsrsharma, your numbers are ludicrous.
$1000 monthly rent for a SFR ?
You are off by a factor of two.

Consider an area of San Diego where homes are just about the median price: Clairemont. Median price in Clairemont (92117) SFR : 430K
Typical rent in Clairemont for a 3/2 SFR : $2200 per month.

SFHs around the median price are 5-10% from cash flow, not 40%+.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

f you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

bsrsharma, your numbers are ludicrous.
$1000 monthly rent for a SFR ?
You are off by a factor of two.

Consider an area of San Diego where homes are just about the median price: Clairemont. Median price in Clairemont (92117) SFR : 430K
Typical rent in Clairemont for a 3/2 SFR : $2200 per month.

SFHs around the median price are 5-10% from cash flow, not 40%+.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

f you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

bsrsharma, your numbers are ludicrous.
$1000 monthly rent for a SFR ?
You are off by a factor of two.

Consider an area of San Diego where homes are just about the median price: Clairemont. Median price in Clairemont (92117) SFR : 430K
Typical rent in Clairemont for a 3/2 SFR : $2200 per month.

SFHs around the median price are 5-10% from cash flow, not 40%+.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

f you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

bsrsharma, your numbers are ludicrous.
$1000 monthly rent for a SFR ?
You are off by a factor of two.

Consider an area of San Diego where homes are just about the median price: Clairemont. Median price in Clairemont (92117) SFR : 430K
Typical rent in Clairemont for a 3/2 SFR : $2200 per month.

SFHs around the median price are 5-10% from cash flow, not 40%+.

[Author]

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