Wow. 47% Decline for San Diego

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=Mayer]Lehman’s CFO says California will be down %50 peak to trough:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/09/lehman-bros-cal.html
[/quote]

I wonder if this Lehman Bros. CFO also predicted the 85% decline in his company’s stock since he was promoted to CFO on June 12th ?

[TheBreeze]

A few things:

one – Although everyone one Piggington makes home-buying decisions based on the actual price of a home, what percentage of peeps in the real world do you think do that?

My guess is that 50% of people will buy a house if they can find a bank that will give them a loan. They don’t consider price or even whether they can afford the monthly nut from the get go. Another 25% only consider whether they can afford the monthly payment (the actual price of the home means squat to them). Another 10% or so will buy a house if they can afford a fixed monthly payment after putting 10 to 20% down. The remaining 15% actually consider the price of the home itself.

So this notion that there are bunch of people on the sidelines waiting for a certain price is probably crapola. Although, there are certainly some investors out there who can purchase several properties.

two – Supposedly the main factor in the models used by the ratings agencies was employment. If everyone stayed employed, the models predicted blissful homeownership for eternity. Affordability and the like was either a small factor or a non-factor in the models. The models were likely structured to give good ratings, not to give accurate ratings.

three – How can we be in an inflationary environment if gold is going down every day?

[TheBreeze]

A few things:

one – Although everyone one Piggington makes home-buying decisions based on the actual price of a home, what percentage of peeps in the real world do you think do that?

My guess is that 50% of people will buy a house if they can find a bank that will give them a loan. They don’t consider price or even whether they can afford the monthly nut from the get go. Another 25% only consider whether they can afford the monthly payment (the actual price of the home means squat to them). Another 10% or so will buy a house if they can afford a fixed monthly payment after putting 10 to 20% down. The remaining 15% actually consider the price of the home itself.

So this notion that there are bunch of people on the sidelines waiting for a certain price is probably crapola. Although, there are certainly some investors out there who can purchase several properties.

two – Supposedly the main factor in the models used by the ratings agencies was employment. If everyone stayed employed, the models predicted blissful homeownership for eternity. Affordability and the like was either a small factor or a non-factor in the models. The models were likely structured to give good ratings, not to give accurate ratings.

three – How can we be in an inflationary environment if gold is going down every day?

[TheBreeze]

A few things:

one – Although everyone one Piggington makes home-buying decisions based on the actual price of a home, what percentage of peeps in the real world do you think do that?

My guess is that 50% of people will buy a house if they can find a bank that will give them a loan. They don’t consider price or even whether they can afford the monthly nut from the get go. Another 25% only consider whether they can afford the monthly payment (the actual price of the home means squat to them). Another 10% or so will buy a house if they can afford a fixed monthly payment after putting 10 to 20% down. The remaining 15% actually consider the price of the home itself.

So this notion that there are bunch of people on the sidelines waiting for a certain price is probably crapola. Although, there are certainly some investors out there who can purchase several properties.

two – Supposedly the main factor in the models used by the ratings agencies was employment. If everyone stayed employed, the models predicted blissful homeownership for eternity. Affordability and the like was either a small factor or a non-factor in the models. The models were likely structured to give good ratings, not to give accurate ratings.

three – How can we be in an inflationary environment if gold is going down every day?

[TheBreeze]

A few things:

one – Although everyone one Piggington makes home-buying decisions based on the actual price of a home, what percentage of peeps in the real world do you think do that?

My guess is that 50% of people will buy a house if they can find a bank that will give them a loan. They don’t consider price or even whether they can afford the monthly nut from the get go. Another 25% only consider whether they can afford the monthly payment (the actual price of the home means squat to them). Another 10% or so will buy a house if they can afford a fixed monthly payment after putting 10 to 20% down. The remaining 15% actually consider the price of the home itself.

So this notion that there are bunch of people on the sidelines waiting for a certain price is probably crapola. Although, there are certainly some investors out there who can purchase several properties.

two – Supposedly the main factor in the models used by the ratings agencies was employment. If everyone stayed employed, the models predicted blissful homeownership for eternity. Affordability and the like was either a small factor or a non-factor in the models. The models were likely structured to give good ratings, not to give accurate ratings.

three – How can we be in an inflationary environment if gold is going down every day?

[TheBreeze]

A few things:

one – Although everyone one Piggington makes home-buying decisions based on the actual price of a home, what percentage of peeps in the real world do you think do that?

My guess is that 50% of people will buy a house if they can find a bank that will give them a loan. They don’t consider price or even whether they can afford the monthly nut from the get go. Another 25% only consider whether they can afford the monthly payment (the actual price of the home means squat to them). Another 10% or so will buy a house if they can afford a fixed monthly payment after putting 10 to 20% down. The remaining 15% actually consider the price of the home itself.

So this notion that there are bunch of people on the sidelines waiting for a certain price is probably crapola. Although, there are certainly some investors out there who can purchase several properties.

two – Supposedly the main factor in the models used by the ratings agencies was employment. If everyone stayed employed, the models predicted blissful homeownership for eternity. Affordability and the like was either a small factor or a non-factor in the models. The models were likely structured to give good ratings, not to give accurate ratings.

three – How can we be in an inflationary environment if gold is going down every day?

[peterb]

Seems like deflation to me, too. Gold and oil coming down against the US$, not just other lame currencies. Yen is the exception.

After a credit bubble of this magnitude pops, it is quite common to have commodities correct downward for some time as the senior currency gains power. But, Unemployment is also rising at a very fast rate. Credit is contracting as well.

I would guess that people with cash and a steady, secure job are going to be in a very powerful economic position in the next year.

Will they buy homes?

[peterb]

Seems like deflation to me, too. Gold and oil coming down against the US$, not just other lame currencies. Yen is the exception.

After a credit bubble of this magnitude pops, it is quite common to have commodities correct downward for some time as the senior currency gains power. But, Unemployment is also rising at a very fast rate. Credit is contracting as well.

I would guess that people with cash and a steady, secure job are going to be in a very powerful economic position in the next year.

Will they buy homes?

[peterb]

Seems like deflation to me, too. Gold and oil coming down against the US$, not just other lame currencies. Yen is the exception.

After a credit bubble of this magnitude pops, it is quite common to have commodities correct downward for some time as the senior currency gains power. But, Unemployment is also rising at a very fast rate. Credit is contracting as well.

I would guess that people with cash and a steady, secure job are going to be in a very powerful economic position in the next year.

Will they buy homes?

[peterb]

Seems like deflation to me, too. Gold and oil coming down against the US$, not just other lame currencies. Yen is the exception.

After a credit bubble of this magnitude pops, it is quite common to have commodities correct downward for some time as the senior currency gains power. But, Unemployment is also rising at a very fast rate. Credit is contracting as well.

I would guess that people with cash and a steady, secure job are going to be in a very powerful economic position in the next year.

Will they buy homes?

[peterb]

Seems like deflation to me, too. Gold and oil coming down against the US$, not just other lame currencies. Yen is the exception.

After a credit bubble of this magnitude pops, it is quite common to have commodities correct downward for some time as the senior currency gains power. But, Unemployment is also rising at a very fast rate. Credit is contracting as well.

I would guess that people with cash and a steady, secure job are going to be in a very powerful economic position in the next year.

Will they buy homes?

[sdrealtor]

Good Job on the Math lesson FSD!

SDnativeson,

Here it is a little clearer:

100,000 home increases 100% to 200,000

200,000 home decreases 50% back to 100,000

It’s simple math, the declines on a %age basis are much smaller on the way down for the same dollar decline.

[sdrealtor]

Good Job on the Math lesson FSD!

SDnativeson,

Here it is a little clearer:

100,000 home increases 100% to 200,000

200,000 home decreases 50% back to 100,000

It’s simple math, the declines on a %age basis are much smaller on the way down for the same dollar decline.

[sdrealtor]

Good Job on the Math lesson FSD!

SDnativeson,

Here it is a little clearer:

100,000 home increases 100% to 200,000

200,000 home decreases 50% back to 100,000

It’s simple math, the declines on a %age basis are much smaller on the way down for the same dollar decline.

[sdrealtor]

Good Job on the Math lesson FSD!

SDnativeson,

Here it is a little clearer:

100,000 home increases 100% to 200,000

200,000 home decreases 50% back to 100,000

It’s simple math, the declines on a %age basis are much smaller on the way down for the same dollar decline.

[Author]

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