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  • July 25, 2008 at 6:44 AM #246940
    EconProf
    Participant

    Fitch, along with Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s, are the three major bond ratings agencies. Fitch has long been more pessimistic, and thus more accurate, than the other two.
    I notice in their report that while they predict a continuing melt-down in prices for CA cities like SD and San Francisco, they predict the opposite for Texas cities like San Antonio, a theme I’ve advocated here before.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM #246766
    gdcox
    Participant

    Gandulf, Please advise where you got the 47% quote from. Going via the link just goes to a one page summary. Can you reproduce the contextual text for the quote please.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM #246917
    gdcox
    Participant

    Gandulf, Please advise where you got the 47% quote from. Going via the link just goes to a one page summary. Can you reproduce the contextual text for the quote please.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM #246923
    gdcox
    Participant

    Gandulf, Please advise where you got the 47% quote from. Going via the link just goes to a one page summary. Can you reproduce the contextual text for the quote please.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM #246980
    gdcox
    Participant

    Gandulf, Please advise where you got the 47% quote from. Going via the link just goes to a one page summary. Can you reproduce the contextual text for the quote please.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM #246986
    gdcox
    Participant

    Gandulf, Please advise where you got the 47% quote from. Going via the link just goes to a one page summary. Can you reproduce the contextual text for the quote please.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:20 AM #246776
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    The sme Fitch that rated all of the CDO pools to be highly valued just a few years back but that are now totally worthless?

    Sorry but I have absolutely no faith in any of the ratings agencies. I have much more trust in my own valuations and projections.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:20 AM #246927
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    The sme Fitch that rated all of the CDO pools to be highly valued just a few years back but that are now totally worthless?

    Sorry but I have absolutely no faith in any of the ratings agencies. I have much more trust in my own valuations and projections.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:20 AM #246933
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    The sme Fitch that rated all of the CDO pools to be highly valued just a few years back but that are now totally worthless?

    Sorry but I have absolutely no faith in any of the ratings agencies. I have much more trust in my own valuations and projections.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:20 AM #246991
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    The sme Fitch that rated all of the CDO pools to be highly valued just a few years back but that are now totally worthless?

    Sorry but I have absolutely no faith in any of the ratings agencies. I have much more trust in my own valuations and projections.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:20 AM #246995
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    The sme Fitch that rated all of the CDO pools to be highly valued just a few years back but that are now totally worthless?

    Sorry but I have absolutely no faith in any of the ratings agencies. I have much more trust in my own valuations and projections.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:57 AM #246801
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    Based on MEDIAN PRICES June ’08 (U-T data)
    Resale houses $405,000
    Resale condos $259,000
    New homes/condos* $490,000
    All combined $370,000

    If you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

    Based on June ’08 prices, further price drop to reach $240K is:

    Resale houses: 40%
    Resale condos: 7%
    New homes/condos: 51%
    All combined: 35%

    Considering all the variability in this scatter shot analysis, 47% seems to fit in quite well.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:57 AM #246952
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    Based on MEDIAN PRICES June ’08 (U-T data)
    Resale houses $405,000
    Resale condos $259,000
    New homes/condos* $490,000
    All combined $370,000

    If you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

    Based on June ’08 prices, further price drop to reach $240K is:

    Resale houses: 40%
    Resale condos: 7%
    New homes/condos: 51%
    All combined: 35%

    Considering all the variability in this scatter shot analysis, 47% seems to fit in quite well.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:57 AM #246958
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    Based on MEDIAN PRICES June ’08 (U-T data)
    Resale houses $405,000
    Resale condos $259,000
    New homes/condos* $490,000
    All combined $370,000

    If you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

    Based on June ’08 prices, further price drop to reach $240K is:

    Resale houses: 40%
    Resale condos: 7%
    New homes/condos: 51%
    All combined: 35%

    Considering all the variability in this scatter shot analysis, 47% seems to fit in quite well.

    July 25, 2008 at 8:57 AM #247016
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    Based on MEDIAN PRICES June ’08 (U-T data)
    Resale houses $405,000
    Resale condos $259,000
    New homes/condos* $490,000
    All combined $370,000

    If you assume a monthly rent of $1000, a “cash flow neutral” house at 5% cost of money, very approximately, works out $240,000 (=$1000*12*20)

    Based on June ’08 prices, further price drop to reach $240K is:

    Resale houses: 40%
    Resale condos: 7%
    New homes/condos: 51%
    All combined: 35%

    Considering all the variability in this scatter shot analysis, 47% seems to fit in quite well.

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