- This topic has 206 replies, 43 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 11 months ago by
North County Jim.
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June 22, 2007 at 10:58 AM #61386June 22, 2007 at 10:58 AM #61425
meadandale
Participant“Not true. Anyone who has heard housing analysis but buys right now at peak prices thinking they are going to make money in the next couple of years is dumb or stupid. ”
It is worth noting that a friend of mine who I tried to steer to this site (I doubt he ever even made it over) just bought a house in 4S (I posted about this a week ago).
No matter how much I might try to sway his decision, he ended up buying and paid almost 100% of the asking price in spite of the fact that recent comps for larger houses in the same neighborhood were 60-80k lower than the list price.
He sent me this little gem:
“We stopped at 700K plus some seller credit cash. It all works out to a
favorable position for us and them that also keeps the comps good in the
neighborhood. When you buy your upgrade house, don’t try to be cheap,
because you also need to consider the comps in the neighborhood. If we had
gotten down to 680K, then all of the homes in the are would have gone down
too. That would have made our floor value much more unstable. As it is,
none of the homes have resold for an unfavorable equity position yet.”Note that my friend is a smart guy (he actually IS a rocket scientist) but the gist of his argument here was “overpay for your house cause it keeps the comps up”.
Trust me, there’s plenty of suckers out there still….
June 22, 2007 at 11:45 AM #61394Reality
ParticipantYou are right, the tax savings don’t cover my costs, but it certainly helps.
Rental from 11 years ago used as an illustrative purpose to let you know that the suckers that pay my mortgage are paying much more than I do
I understand you want to nest and all, so just say so. Don’t try to rationalize your purchase in economic terms. It doesn’t wash. Who are you trying to convince anyway, us or yourself?
BTW, so your tenants pay more than you do? So what? Could they get a better deal today? I suppose if they had a time machine they could go back to 1996, but what makes them “suckers”.
Your choice of word says more about you than them.
June 22, 2007 at 11:45 AM #61433ParticipantYou are right, the tax savings don’t cover my costs, but it certainly helps.
Rental from 11 years ago used as an illustrative purpose to let you know that the suckers that pay my mortgage are paying much more than I do
I understand you want to nest and all, so just say so. Don’t try to rationalize your purchase in economic terms. It doesn’t wash. Who are you trying to convince anyway, us or yourself?
BTW, so your tenants pay more than you do? So what? Could they get a better deal today? I suppose if they had a time machine they could go back to 1996, but what makes them “suckers”.
Your choice of word says more about you than them.
June 22, 2007 at 11:56 AM #61396PD
Participantmeadandale, nice illustration of “stupid.”
June 22, 2007 at 11:56 AM #61435Participantmeadandale, nice illustration of “stupid.”
June 22, 2007 at 12:00 PM #61398sdcellar
Participantmyito– I love that you compliment cyphire on his post, but quickly proceed to declare it simplistic and faulty!
I’m sure he’ll probably weigh in as well, but I couldn’t resist commenting on your itemized listed list:
1) You contradict yourself regarding your perception of loser renters. They’re not losers, but they’re not like-minded either?
When you say you want your neighbors to be like-minded, do you mean in *every* regard? Let’s see, I rent, and I want to hang out with my neighbors, for my kids to go to good schools, to live in a safe area. We *seem* pretty like minded.
Again, you make huge assumptions, cyphire’s situation isn’t special or unique, and neither is mine. You could easily have it as well, but you choose not to. That’s fine, but don’t criticize it.
2) So you’re only putting down around $200K on what sounds like must be a place that runs at least a million. Do you understand the concept of renting money? I hope so, because it sounds like you’re going to be renting a lot of it.
3) Nobody cares about your 401(k). cyphire’s point was that retirement money is exactly that. It sounds like your socking it away, therefore it will grow and you should be fine. If, instead, you are making it part of your housing play, then it won’t grow as much and the $500K isn’t as good as it seems. From prior posts, we can’t tell what your plans were for the money, but you can see where bringing it up in the homebuying context might raise the question.
2nd 3) You’re the one who brought up 11 years ago. As you well know by now, I like to discuss this in the context of the here and now, but don’t fault others for bringing up historical examples that counter your historical examples.
4) Paper loss discussion is all well and fine, but in the long run, the gain or loss is what it is. Granting you a gain when you sell, you still will likely not have gained as much as you could have if you’d held out another year or two. No guarantees, of course, but that’s what it looks like right now.
You’ve also mentioned the quick dollar several times, but that’s not the case at all. The patient are simply waiting for prices to make sense and when they do, they’ll buy and sit for a long time.
5) Okay
and finally, I’m glad you’re revitalized, but I would disagree with SD Realtor. You’re not sticking to your guns. You keep changing them. I’m starting to see a repeating pattern of people specifically addressing your points and you coming back with something else.
You’re also starting more and more to make direct attacks on folks. This is on top of your already indirect attacks. Me, I don’t care. I have thick skin, so bring it on, but I don’t think you get to play the “nice” myito card much longer.
How’s that for simplistic and faulty!
June 22, 2007 at 12:00 PM #61437Participantmyito– I love that you compliment cyphire on his post, but quickly proceed to declare it simplistic and faulty!
I’m sure he’ll probably weigh in as well, but I couldn’t resist commenting on your itemized listed list:
1) You contradict yourself regarding your perception of loser renters. They’re not losers, but they’re not like-minded either?
When you say you want your neighbors to be like-minded, do you mean in *every* regard? Let’s see, I rent, and I want to hang out with my neighbors, for my kids to go to good schools, to live in a safe area. We *seem* pretty like minded.
Again, you make huge assumptions, cyphire’s situation isn’t special or unique, and neither is mine. You could easily have it as well, but you choose not to. That’s fine, but don’t criticize it.
2) So you’re only putting down around $200K on what sounds like must be a place that runs at least a million. Do you understand the concept of renting money? I hope so, because it sounds like you’re going to be renting a lot of it.
3) Nobody cares about your 401(k). cyphire’s point was that retirement money is exactly that. It sounds like your socking it away, therefore it will grow and you should be fine. If, instead, you are making it part of your housing play, then it won’t grow as much and the $500K isn’t as good as it seems. From prior posts, we can’t tell what your plans were for the money, but you can see where bringing it up in the homebuying context might raise the question.
2nd 3) You’re the one who brought up 11 years ago. As you well know by now, I like to discuss this in the context of the here and now, but don’t fault others for bringing up historical examples that counter your historical examples.
4) Paper loss discussion is all well and fine, but in the long run, the gain or loss is what it is. Granting you a gain when you sell, you still will likely not have gained as much as you could have if you’d held out another year or two. No guarantees, of course, but that’s what it looks like right now.
You’ve also mentioned the quick dollar several times, but that’s not the case at all. The patient are simply waiting for prices to make sense and when they do, they’ll buy and sit for a long time.
5) Okay
and finally, I’m glad you’re revitalized, but I would disagree with SD Realtor. You’re not sticking to your guns. You keep changing them. I’m starting to see a repeating pattern of people specifically addressing your points and you coming back with something else.
You’re also starting more and more to make direct attacks on folks. This is on top of your already indirect attacks. Me, I don’t care. I have thick skin, so bring it on, but I don’t think you get to play the “nice” myito card much longer.
How’s that for simplistic and faulty!
June 22, 2007 at 12:00 PM #61402ParticipantI just reread that post. Your friend might have engaged in mortgage fraud by getting cash back in an attempt to falsely support the comps. This kind of activity is mileading all buyers.
June 22, 2007 at 12:00 PM #61441ParticipantI just reread that post. Your friend might have engaged in mortgage fraud by getting cash back in an attempt to falsely support the comps. This kind of activity is mileading all buyers.
June 22, 2007 at 12:28 PM #61410Bugs
ParticipantMyito,
I wouldn’t call myself bitter at all. I’m simply acknowledging that my decisions are all compromises and – good or bad – I am the sum of those compromises.
The reason I’m holding is because it’s cheaper for me on a monthly basis than renting would be. That’s one of the benefits of buying at the better end of the cycle. I don’t need any luck to continue holding.
The reason I let those clients go and I allow some of my peers to be angry at me is because I know from experience that in the long run my professional reputation is worth a lot more to me than the fees lost during a boom. I recognize that any idiot can make money when times are good, which is why so many idiots think they’re geniuses right now. The mark of a winner in my line of work is how well I do when times are bad, not how much money I make when times are good. And I need to maintain a good reputation in order to do well during these more difficult times. It paid off very nicely during the last bust when a lot of those types of clients and a lot of those types of appraisers got starved out, and I expect it will be even more pronounced this time.
I do regret the MBZ, though, ’cause I feel like it makes me look like a yuppie and I absolutely detest yuppies. I’ll probably have to sell it in order to resolve that conflict. It’s either that or try to pretend I’m 30 again and need to impress other people.
June 22, 2007 at 12:28 PM #61449ParticipantMyito,
I wouldn’t call myself bitter at all. I’m simply acknowledging that my decisions are all compromises and – good or bad – I am the sum of those compromises.
The reason I’m holding is because it’s cheaper for me on a monthly basis than renting would be. That’s one of the benefits of buying at the better end of the cycle. I don’t need any luck to continue holding.
The reason I let those clients go and I allow some of my peers to be angry at me is because I know from experience that in the long run my professional reputation is worth a lot more to me than the fees lost during a boom. I recognize that any idiot can make money when times are good, which is why so many idiots think they’re geniuses right now. The mark of a winner in my line of work is how well I do when times are bad, not how much money I make when times are good. And I need to maintain a good reputation in order to do well during these more difficult times. It paid off very nicely during the last bust when a lot of those types of clients and a lot of those types of appraisers got starved out, and I expect it will be even more pronounced this time.
I do regret the MBZ, though, ’cause I feel like it makes me look like a yuppie and I absolutely detest yuppies. I’ll probably have to sell it in order to resolve that conflict. It’s either that or try to pretend I’m 30 again and need to impress other people.
June 22, 2007 at 1:24 PM #61440sdrealtor
ParticipantLA Renter,
How about the people that bought MSFT in 1986 and never sold any?sdr
(MSFT stockholder since 1986)June 22, 2007 at 1:24 PM #61479ParticipantLA Renter,
How about the people that bought MSFT in 1986 and never sold any?sdr
(MSFT stockholder since 1986)June 22, 2007 at 3:32 PM #6147434f3f3f
ParticipantNot true. Anyone who has heard housing analysis but buys right now at peak prices thinking they are going to make money in the next couple of years is dumb or stupid.
People who use words like “dumb or stupid” are usually dumb and stupid. It stems from a deep seated sense of inferiority. And anyone who doesn’t know that is …well, you get the point.
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