Who are the buyers in San Diego now?

[myito]

Rustico,

I think your advice to Ricechex is good. When I read the post I thought — “stay where you are until you have to move.”

Ricechex, if the rental is still working out don’t jump ship until you have to. You might also want to check and see if you are in a rent controlled building. If so, even if the landlord dies you may be protected against being thrown out. For my condo, even if I sell it I would be responsible for paying the tenants a relocation fee (something like $5K I believe).

If you ascribe to the overarching view on this site, chances are you will be able to get a better, lower priced home in a few years when you may be forced to move.

I would diversify my assets putting some in a stable option (like mutual fund, CD or high-rate bank account like ING) and then possibly investing some elsewhere. The stock market has been peforming well lately but many believe this bull run is coming to a close so I’d be careful with stocks. I was told Gold and international stocks are good, but I have not doing enough investigating to speak on the topic.

Best of luck to you.

[myito]

PD — Only if you sell. My point is that it is only a paper loss until you try to liquidate. If you are someplace for the long haul, the fluctuations of the market become less significant.

When I began trading stocks I lost a lot of money because I got scared when my stocks would drop and I sold. Had I held certain equities I would have outperformed any bank, mutual fund interest rate gain.

[myito]

PD — Only if you sell. My point is that it is only a paper loss until you try to liquidate. If you are someplace for the long haul, the fluctuations of the market become less significant.

When I began trading stocks I lost a lot of money because I got scared when my stocks would drop and I sold. Had I held certain equities I would have outperformed any bank, mutual fund interest rate gain.

[Bugs]

So now we’re talking in 30-year holding periods? How many people do you know in your generation who you think will hold for that long?

Let’s say you buy the $1,000,000 at peak and it depreciates to $500,000, then continues on at the average 3%. $350k @ 3% compounded over 30 years is what it is (about $850k in 2025). The 3% average rate of increase over the last 50 years (it’s actually only about 2.5%) is comprised of all the highs and lows along the way. That’s what “Average” means. It would only change if we are now facing that “New Paradigm”, which so far is proving to be a rather spectacular bust.

Nobody can know the future, but based on past performance the $850k in 2025 at least has a basis, whereas the $1.4m does not.

If you’re arguing that this time is different and we are now facing the New Paradigm where the long term will reset at this much higher rate then we’d all love to see what you’re basing that on.

You’re apparently in the business of giving advice. May we assume that you use data and analyses to back that advice up?

[Bugs]

So now we’re talking in 30-year holding periods? How many people do you know in your generation who you think will hold for that long?

Let’s say you buy the $1,000,000 at peak and it depreciates to $500,000, then continues on at the average 3%. $350k @ 3% compounded over 30 years is what it is (about $850k in 2025). The 3% average rate of increase over the last 50 years (it’s actually only about 2.5%) is comprised of all the highs and lows along the way. That’s what “Average” means. It would only change if we are now facing that “New Paradigm”, which so far is proving to be a rather spectacular bust.

Nobody can know the future, but based on past performance the $850k in 2025 at least has a basis, whereas the $1.4m does not.

If you’re arguing that this time is different and we are now facing the New Paradigm where the long term will reset at this much higher rate then we’d all love to see what you’re basing that on.

You’re apparently in the business of giving advice. May we assume that you use data and analyses to back that advice up?

[NotCranky]

Hello myito,
I am glad you are contributing to this blog. I just wanted to say,because you find it a little bit hostile at times,that this place is tame compared to most other housing bubble blogs.
Your’s truly was banned from Ben Jones’ blog after I fought back against people who obviously hated real estate as an investment class, mostly poor losers. Posters there would anihilate anyone who had positive things to counter the rediculous anti- real estate ramblings. Fight back you get banned.That place is truly an “echo chamber”
What is really funny is that, on this blog , I am one of the most “bearish” people and the other posters have helped me moderate my perspective,slightly, of an impending crash.The people on that other blog would not even wait to see what I had to say. The “blog master” culled diverse opinions from the mix.

PS: Everybody on this blog has made mistakes…except bugs:).

[NotCranky]

Hello myito,
I am glad you are contributing to this blog. I just wanted to say,because you find it a little bit hostile at times,that this place is tame compared to most other housing bubble blogs.
Your’s truly was banned from Ben Jones’ blog after I fought back against people who obviously hated real estate as an investment class, mostly poor losers. Posters there would anihilate anyone who had positive things to counter the rediculous anti- real estate ramblings. Fight back you get banned.That place is truly an “echo chamber”
What is really funny is that, on this blog , I am one of the most “bearish” people and the other posters have helped me moderate my perspective,slightly, of an impending crash.The people on that other blog would not even wait to see what I had to say. The “blog master” culled diverse opinions from the mix.

PS: Everybody on this blog has made mistakes…except bugs:).

[PD]

Myito, you appear to have ignored the meat of my post. Just because you lost money while investing in something other than real estate, does not mean that others will do the same. My investments are fairly conservative.
I just ran a homebuyer calculation on a comprehensive spreadsheet my husband created (factors in prop taxes, income taxes, and many others). Lets say I bought right now in my target market and you assume the following:

Home prices froze for 5 years (don’t go up, don’t go down)
I would have gained 5.2% on my down payment, conservatively invested

My net worth would be $260,000 less than if I had rented during that time. If home values go down, that number goes up, up, up. You have some huge blind spots.

[PD]

Myito, you appear to have ignored the meat of my post. Just because you lost money while investing in something other than real estate, does not mean that others will do the same. My investments are fairly conservative.
I just ran a homebuyer calculation on a comprehensive spreadsheet my husband created (factors in prop taxes, income taxes, and many others). Lets say I bought right now in my target market and you assume the following:

Home prices froze for 5 years (don’t go up, don’t go down)
I would have gained 5.2% on my down payment, conservatively invested

My net worth would be $260,000 less than if I had rented during that time. If home values go down, that number goes up, up, up. You have some huge blind spots.

[Bugs]

No mistakes? Hah!! I’m making a mistake even as we speak. I’m holding right now even though I know I could bank some nice coin (and keep it) by selling my position. I could have made a TON of money had I gone into selling apartments and commercial properties back in the late 1990s but I chose to stick with appraising instead. I’ve lost clients over the last 10 years because I wouldn’t sign off on their increasingly outrageous deals, I’ve pissed off a lot of my peers for not looking the other way while they availed themselves of all that low-lying fruit, and in general have worked against my financial interests the whole while.

A few years back I gave in to the material-girl BS and bought an MBZ (an AMG, no less) to commemorate my mid-life crisis. That certainly wasn’t my brightest move.

I’m on my second marriage, too; so there’s at least one person (my ex) who knows for a fact that I’m a complete loser.

Mistakes? I gots lots.

[Bugs]

No mistakes? Hah!! I’m making a mistake even as we speak. I’m holding right now even though I know I could bank some nice coin (and keep it) by selling my position. I could have made a TON of money had I gone into selling apartments and commercial properties back in the late 1990s but I chose to stick with appraising instead. I’ve lost clients over the last 10 years because I wouldn’t sign off on their increasingly outrageous deals, I’ve pissed off a lot of my peers for not looking the other way while they availed themselves of all that low-lying fruit, and in general have worked against my financial interests the whole while.

A few years back I gave in to the material-girl BS and bought an MBZ (an AMG, no less) to commemorate my mid-life crisis. That certainly wasn’t my brightest move.

I’m on my second marriage, too; so there’s at least one person (my ex) who knows for a fact that I’m a complete loser.

Mistakes? I gots lots.

[myito]

Rustico, 🙂 — thanks for the words of encouragement. Your post has recharged me and made it possible for me to fight another day (or at least fight more of the posts that will undoubtedly come my way because of my response to Cypher). I am beginning to see some of the personalities emerge.

Bugs, you aren’t really as bitter as you sound right? Good luck on holding your property, I’ll make sure when I need an appraisal on my new place I steer clear of anyone that looks like a hemipteran or like they are a descendant of arachnids. Just teasing you — but you do sound bitter.

Cheers all — I actually have to do some work!

[myito]

Rustico, 🙂 — thanks for the words of encouragement. Your post has recharged me and made it possible for me to fight another day (or at least fight more of the posts that will undoubtedly come my way because of my response to Cypher). I am beginning to see some of the personalities emerge.

Bugs, you aren’t really as bitter as you sound right? Good luck on holding your property, I’ll make sure when I need an appraisal on my new place I steer clear of anyone that looks like a hemipteran or like they are a descendant of arachnids. Just teasing you — but you do sound bitter.

Cheers all — I actually have to do some work!

[SD Realtor]

Myito I would also like to congratulate you for sticking to your guns. Right or wrong doesn’t matter to me as much as people hanging in and arguing their points in a thoughtful manner.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Myito I would also like to congratulate you for sticking to your guns. Right or wrong doesn’t matter to me as much as people hanging in and arguing their points in a thoughtful manner.

SD Realtor

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