Who are the buyers in San Diego now?

[CMcG]

Am not going to bore anyone with my personal story again, but I have a colleague in this situation: She inherited among several siblings part of a central coast house. Because she bought in a less-desirable area pre-2000, but still very central location, she can buy out her siblings. I know several people who are single and cannot afford to buy here even though they are making near $100K. To buy, this is definitely a two-income minimum region.

[CMcG]

Am not going to bore anyone with my personal story again, but I have a colleague in this situation: She inherited among several siblings part of a central coast house. Because she bought in a less-desirable area pre-2000, but still very central location, she can buy out her siblings. I know several people who are single and cannot afford to buy here even though they are making near $100K. To buy, this is definitely a two-income minimum region.

[myito]

I have been lurking on this site for quite sometime and I am continuously struck by the one-sided nature of comments. It is no wonder no one on the flip side responds, they are outnumbered and intimidated I am sure.

Anyway, my husband and I recently moved here from the east coast for family and quality of life. We are buying now because we have 2 children and don’t choose to raise them in an apartment or temporary rental housing. I sold a home in CT and still own a condo in LA with a lot of equity. We are very financially stable with more than $300K in the bank and a combined total of more than $400K in 401K and another 100K or so in stocks. A shame I have to justify our finances, but such is life on this board.

Are we dumb for buying now? We think not — we are looking for a stable home for our children and a non-transient lifestyle. I think you all underestimate the power of family and the need for stability with children. We are paying a hefty sum for a 4 bdrm/4.5 bath home that is about 3000 sq ft on a 1/2 acre lot. Not to flip, but to live. Renting sucks plain and simple.

I bought my condo in LA during a downturn and realize that the market is cyclical. But all of you doom and gloomers are out of line. I remember 20 years ago, my mother could buy a home in Nor Cal for about 140K — she thought it was too much on her $38K/year job. She also thought prices would come down dramatically and kept renting. Guess what??? Rent went up and quickly surpassed what that mortgage for the $140K home would have been.

What’s the point? Housing is high but renting is as well. I’m not willing to rent any longer and sacrifice not having stability in hopes of getting $80K or 90K more off a home. In the end, higher interest rates will mean the same payment anyway or a landlord raising prices will mean the same.

Just my thoughts.

[myito]

I have been lurking on this site for quite sometime and I am continuously struck by the one-sided nature of comments. It is no wonder no one on the flip side responds, they are outnumbered and intimidated I am sure.

Anyway, my husband and I recently moved here from the east coast for family and quality of life. We are buying now because we have 2 children and don’t choose to raise them in an apartment or temporary rental housing. I sold a home in CT and still own a condo in LA with a lot of equity. We are very financially stable with more than $300K in the bank and a combined total of more than $400K in 401K and another 100K or so in stocks. A shame I have to justify our finances, but such is life on this board.

Are we dumb for buying now? We think not — we are looking for a stable home for our children and a non-transient lifestyle. I think you all underestimate the power of family and the need for stability with children. We are paying a hefty sum for a 4 bdrm/4.5 bath home that is about 3000 sq ft on a 1/2 acre lot. Not to flip, but to live. Renting sucks plain and simple.

I bought my condo in LA during a downturn and realize that the market is cyclical. But all of you doom and gloomers are out of line. I remember 20 years ago, my mother could buy a home in Nor Cal for about 140K — she thought it was too much on her $38K/year job. She also thought prices would come down dramatically and kept renting. Guess what??? Rent went up and quickly surpassed what that mortgage for the $140K home would have been.

What’s the point? Housing is high but renting is as well. I’m not willing to rent any longer and sacrifice not having stability in hopes of getting $80K or 90K more off a home. In the end, higher interest rates will mean the same payment anyway or a landlord raising prices will mean the same.

Just my thoughts.

[myito]

P.S. I think many of you on the sidelines today will remain on the sidelines in the future. There will always be some reason not to buy unless you are buying for the right reason. I have witnessed it time and time again.

[myito]

P.S. I think many of you on the sidelines today will remain on the sidelines in the future. There will always be some reason not to buy unless you are buying for the right reason. I have witnessed it time and time again.

[patientrenter]

myito,

You are correct that the opinion on this board is lopsided in favor of prices decreasing. I’m on that side. And you’re even correct that some of the people here don’t have much credibility because they always think it’s a bad time to buy. I’m in that group: I didn’t buy when I moved from LA to OC in 1996. Argh!

But you’re incorrect that we all think buyers are stupid, or that we’re all convinced we’re right and you’re wrong regardless of evidence. Given your past success in buying real estate, you are probably quite satisfied to take on some extra risk now, and it wouldn’t ruin you if it didn’t work out. If I were in your situation, I might buy too. I don’t like the emerging market signals, but I’m probably wrong!

Good luck with the buying, and please let us know if you see any signals that could help the rest of us see what’s really happening.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

myito,

You are correct that the opinion on this board is lopsided in favor of prices decreasing. I’m on that side. And you’re even correct that some of the people here don’t have much credibility because they always think it’s a bad time to buy. I’m in that group: I didn’t buy when I moved from LA to OC in 1996. Argh!

But you’re incorrect that we all think buyers are stupid, or that we’re all convinced we’re right and you’re wrong regardless of evidence. Given your past success in buying real estate, you are probably quite satisfied to take on some extra risk now, and it wouldn’t ruin you if it didn’t work out. If I were in your situation, I might buy too. I don’t like the emerging market signals, but I’m probably wrong!

Good luck with the buying, and please let us know if you see any signals that could help the rest of us see what’s really happening.

Patient renter in OC

[Anonymous]

Myito,

We’re all different with different wants and needs. You made what you think is the best decision for you and the rest of us are doing the same. Many of us on this forum have bought and sold several times over. I think those with children are thinking of them whether they are waiting to buy or not. I want stability for our kids, but that doesn’t necessarily mean buying a home now.

I don’t want an apt. at this time in our lives, so we rent a single family home from a stable landlord. I don’t see any difference in our kids than when we owned. I feel financially secure now, but don’t know what the future holds. Saving $80 or $90K (although I think there will be plenty of bigger drops) is a big deal. It’s like burning money to me and missing other opportunities.

You did what works for you and that’s what matters.

[Anonymous]

Myito,

We’re all different with different wants and needs. You made what you think is the best decision for you and the rest of us are doing the same. Many of us on this forum have bought and sold several times over. I think those with children are thinking of them whether they are waiting to buy or not. I want stability for our kids, but that doesn’t necessarily mean buying a home now.

I don’t want an apt. at this time in our lives, so we rent a single family home from a stable landlord. I don’t see any difference in our kids than when we owned. I feel financially secure now, but don’t know what the future holds. Saving $80 or $90K (although I think there will be plenty of bigger drops) is a big deal. It’s like burning money to me and missing other opportunities.

You did what works for you and that’s what matters.

[lniles]

Myito your posts are pretty much in line with what everyone else has posted… I don’t see how this could be the “flip side”.

Real estate is cyclical. Check.
You have equity to work with. Check.
You are financially in the top 2% of Americans. Check.
You have a lot of money and can weather a downturn in the market. Check.

You can afford a huge downpayment, you don’t need 100% financing, etc. etc. etc. You fit all the characteristics that people are blogging about.

I also lived in CT as a youngling for 6 years (Gales Ferry, near Ledyard, Groton, New London) where we had a 5-acre place on the river with 3 stories, 8 bedrooms, a basement, a separate garage, a separate barn-like structure, woods, and our very own ice-skating pond.

CT is the richest state in America. I can easily see how your idea of proper 4-person family raising is with 3000sf on 1/2 acre but around here it’s a luxury that is going to cost you. I’d like to raise financially responsible children who won’t throw money away; however, I don’t think you got where you are by being foolish (unless you are an heiress like Paris Hilton).

Just FYI there are perfectly balanced families who rent and/or live in much smaller spaces. In fact, personally I think people who learn to live with very little are more interesting, less shallow, and happy. Just my $0.02

[lniles]

Myito your posts are pretty much in line with what everyone else has posted… I don’t see how this could be the “flip side”.

Real estate is cyclical. Check.
You have equity to work with. Check.
You are financially in the top 2% of Americans. Check.
You have a lot of money and can weather a downturn in the market. Check.

You can afford a huge downpayment, you don’t need 100% financing, etc. etc. etc. You fit all the characteristics that people are blogging about.

I also lived in CT as a youngling for 6 years (Gales Ferry, near Ledyard, Groton, New London) where we had a 5-acre place on the river with 3 stories, 8 bedrooms, a basement, a separate garage, a separate barn-like structure, woods, and our very own ice-skating pond.

CT is the richest state in America. I can easily see how your idea of proper 4-person family raising is with 3000sf on 1/2 acre but around here it’s a luxury that is going to cost you. I’d like to raise financially responsible children who won’t throw money away; however, I don’t think you got where you are by being foolish (unless you are an heiress like Paris Hilton).

Just FYI there are perfectly balanced families who rent and/or live in much smaller spaces. In fact, personally I think people who learn to live with very little are more interesting, less shallow, and happy. Just my $0.02

[New_Renter]

Myito,
It’s ok that you are buying now, and as SD Realtor said there are always people willing to buy at any time in the market cycle. As for the statement that those “on the sidelines will remain on the sidelines in the future”, I can tell you (at least in my case) you could not be more wrong. Since you revealed some insight into your assets, I will as well. We are now renting, but could easily buy a higher-end home in CV for cash. Yet, I am absolutely convinced this is the wrong time to buy (at least for us). All the indicators I’m following are practically screaming this. I know what it is like to buy at the WRONG time first hand. We bought our first home in Carlsbad literally on the day the market supposedly peaked back in 1989! And then turned around and sold in 1993 for what at the time for us was a horrible gut-wrenching loss. While we made up that loss in spades on our 2nd home, the pain of that earlier experience is still, how should I put it…, very poignant. In my opinion, based on everything I am looking at: i.e foreclosure sales, NOD’s, exsiting homes sales, permits, mortgage rates, Case-Shiller Index, etc. this time around looks to be worse than the previous housing crash. I am hoping to avoid making the same mistake twice. When the indicators solidly swing their momentum back to the positive, we WILL buy. But why expose oneself to such risk at this time? It’s not like the market is going to run away from you to the upside. It’s clearly not going back into the double-digit appreciation mode any time soon, so it doesn’t really hurt to wait and see how it develops when the odds favor continued decline. I do understand that urge to own, but am hoping that this time around, by focusing on the data we can take the emotion out of the decision. Good luck to you on your purchase.

[New_Renter]

Myito,
It’s ok that you are buying now, and as SD Realtor said there are always people willing to buy at any time in the market cycle. As for the statement that those “on the sidelines will remain on the sidelines in the future”, I can tell you (at least in my case) you could not be more wrong. Since you revealed some insight into your assets, I will as well. We are now renting, but could easily buy a higher-end home in CV for cash. Yet, I am absolutely convinced this is the wrong time to buy (at least for us). All the indicators I’m following are practically screaming this. I know what it is like to buy at the WRONG time first hand. We bought our first home in Carlsbad literally on the day the market supposedly peaked back in 1989! And then turned around and sold in 1993 for what at the time for us was a horrible gut-wrenching loss. While we made up that loss in spades on our 2nd home, the pain of that earlier experience is still, how should I put it…, very poignant. In my opinion, based on everything I am looking at: i.e foreclosure sales, NOD’s, exsiting homes sales, permits, mortgage rates, Case-Shiller Index, etc. this time around looks to be worse than the previous housing crash. I am hoping to avoid making the same mistake twice. When the indicators solidly swing their momentum back to the positive, we WILL buy. But why expose oneself to such risk at this time? It’s not like the market is going to run away from you to the upside. It’s clearly not going back into the double-digit appreciation mode any time soon, so it doesn’t really hurt to wait and see how it develops when the odds favor continued decline. I do understand that urge to own, but am hoping that this time around, by focusing on the data we can take the emotion out of the decision. Good luck to you on your purchase.

[SD Realtor]

myito –

I understand your situation perfectly. Your position is not unique. I would pretty much agree with what everyone has said. In my situation, I would much rather buy a few years down the line, then when I will end up buying.

Your point about your mom not buying is well taken, however I do not view the prevailing opinion of most on this blog to be in that vein. I think the prevailing opinions here are well thought out and based upon real data. Thus most of the people here who will indeed wait for a few more years will most likely get fantastic deals. I do not believe they will be on the sidelines forever.

SD Realtor

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