way too many disgruntled people here

[greekfire]

Alex,
In one breath you infer that other poster’s statements are completely lacking in data and based on a “crystal ball”. Yet, in the next breath, you make the following statement,

“The fact is there is a lot of rich people that moved here over the last couple years.”

And you provide absolutely no data whatsoever to substantiate this claim. How’s that old saying go? Oh yeah, when you point your finger at someone you have three fingers pointing back at you.

[PorkmanDelardo]

“The bottom line is if you can afford the home, buy it, else move somewhere else or lower your expectations.”

Financially, I am having my best year ever. What does $250,000 annual income get you nowadays? A crackerbox in Del Sur? A hovel in la Jolla? No thanks.
How about I ignore your bottom line and continue to sit on the sidelines until prices normalize? Sure the temptation is there to jump in. But I prefer to overcome my sheeple urges and rent a sh**hole in Kensington for $1,900 a month. Meanwhile I am surrounded by million dollar spanish style homes, the mayor for a neighbor, and many disgruntled homeowners around me, who wish they were not a slave to their mortgage payment. By the way, I drive a Prius to save on gas and drive a little cleaner, and I like to hit Kobey’s on the weekend. Move somewhere else? Lower my expectations? I don’t think so. I enjoy the Piggington way of thinking. A bunch of Chicken Littles, you say? Hardly.
Yes, I own a home too. And I let my tenants cover my expenses and then some. Patience and common sense is a virtue when it comes to the housing market. Show me a Hummer in the driveway, and I’ll show you a house in pre-foreclosure. Nuff said.

[Coronita]

I notice a "pattern" about the posters at Piggington.

1. Those who are knowledgeable about real estate. These people generally assert that there will be a major price correction. And this correction will be slow, so patience is the key. Most importantly, these people base their outlook on their knowledge & understanding. 2. Those who don't know much about real estate or are still in the process of learning more about RE. These people base their outlook on their "FEELING" (which is to be expected, if you don't have the knowledge, all you have is your GUT FEELING). Sorry to say this, Alex_angel belongs to the latter group. Knowledge is power ! Keep studying 🙂

 

Actually, I've noticed quite a few "patterns" here.

 

1. Some folks who are knowledgeable about real estate. These folks usually tell what they are seeing now, with data to back it up. Some who make educated guesses into the future.

 

2. Some folks who seem like disgruntled folks that band behind people type #1 like sheep, probably because they are pissed off at the affordability of homes and  want to hear things that's along the line of their frustration. 

3. Variants of type #2 that act like type #1's…These folks typically post 1-2 or maybe 3 homes that appear to have lost 100-200k in value, pop open the wine, celebrate about the idiot buyer who now is going to lose his shirt, only to be corrected by a type #1 person that looks up the MLS listing/etc and quote the actual number(s) and/or condition of sale.

4. Variants of type #2 that attack contrarian opinions that "express things might not be that as a 40-50% correction," and pin labels on people that make these opinions like "dumb buyer at peak prices that are disillusioned that they aren't going to get their a**es handed to him". "people that are dumb buying homes at such prices because it doesn't make sense.", when in reality some(not all) of these folks don't really need to worry about things if their primary home declines 40-50% because (1) they can afford the primary home (2) don't view the primary home as an "investment", but instead satisfy some material feeling that he/she may possess (3) actually makes decent financial decisions elsewhere to satisfy such material posessions.

5. Variants of #2 who can't afford homes because these spend their hard earn money on other crap and/or who drive nicer cars than their boss ( I know a few of these folks).

 

5. People that really are disillusioned into thinking that home prices aren't going to fall at all, and really are in a state of denial.

6. People who don't like to here negative things about they home that they just bought and will say anything to make themselves feel better.

 

7. Idiots like me who

a)like to read what people #1 post

b)find everyone else entertaining

c)speak whatever the hell on my mind with no data to back anything up, often act like #2-#6

d)frankly don't really care if real-estate falls 20-50% because there's no point in dwelling on when it happens, and because we're busy spending time looking for other investments to make their money grow while real estate is suppose to fall in the next 2-5 years.

e)hoping that both real estate prices will fall AND mortgage rates rise sharp and fast to double digits (10-13%) to effectively lock out a good portion of potential first home buyers during this downturn so that they can be my potential tenants for homes that I'll buy during this period.

For example,

Currently: 30year fixed @6% with 20% down on an $800k = $3,837.12/month

Ideally, I hope this home would fall to $500k, but at the same time a 30year fixed loan would sharply rise to 12% or

$3300/month.

..effectively still making homes unattainable for enough people so that they can be my renter. 

 

[Coronita]

"The bottom line is if you can afford the home, buy it, else move somewhere else or lower your expectations." Financially, I am having my best year ever. What does $250,000 annual income get you nowadays? A crackerbox in Del Sur? A hovel in la Jolla? No thanks. How about I ignore your bottom line and continue to sit on the sidelines until prices normalize? Sure the temptation is there to jump in. But I prefer to overcome my sheeple urges and rent a sh**hole in Kensington for $1,900 a month. Meanwhile I am surrounded by million dollar spanish style homes, the mayor for a neighbor, and many disgruntled homeowners around me, who wish they were not a slave to their mortgage payment. By the way, I drive a Prius to save on gas and drive a little cleaner, and I like to hit Kobey's on the weekend. Move somewhere else? Lower my expectations? I don't think so. I enjoy the Piggington way of thinking. A bunch of Chicken Littles, you say? Hardly. Yes, I own a home too. And I let my tenants cover my expenses and then some. Patience and common sense is a virtue when it comes to the housing market. Show me a Hummer in the driveway, and I'll show you a house in pre-foreclosure. Nuff said.

 

Is that all you make? Imagine that…A $250k household living slums. The attrocity!!!Call in the welfare reform!! I'm just kidding…..I know what you mean. I don't understand why people that work for me drive nicer cars than me but at the same time complain they can't afford a home….Duh! One thing though…Don't tell me you're saving money by driving a Prius…Saving the environment, yes…Saving money…I don't think your gas savings going to cover the premium you paid for the first generation toy over say a honda civic that gets 30mpg. I'm sure you're not getting 60mpg that toyota claims, but closer to 40-45 in real world.

[New_Renter]

sdrealtor,

5357 Carmel Knolls IS right in the heart of CV! Don’t think that you can just make everyone ignore it by putting the spotlight on the Pacific Highlands Ranch listing. Huntington Heights (where 5357 Carmel Knolls is) is right in the heart of CV, your basic Pardee development built in 1995 and right around the corner from Sonoma. A $200K loss is pretty significant, wouldn’t you say?

I’m also aware of two very painful short sales over the last few months in CV, one in Lexington and the other in Barratt’s Paso Fino up on Del Mar Ridge. Plus an ugly bank sale on Durango in Del Mar Heights.

This is just beginning to scratch the surface. Sure, there are still some sales happening in CV, but it is incredibly slow compared to what it was. CV is showing definite signs of increasing weakness. It will be interesting to watch what happens as we move later into the year.

New_Renter

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Everybody, listen! I am the one with the crystal ball.

My crystal ball said, (in quotes):

“In 1996 -BUY San Diego house – April 1996.” Did it.
“In 2005 -LIST your house for sale June 2005.” Did it and sold October 2005.

Then it said: “Move out of San Diego – 2006, go to Austin, Texas area.” I obediently followed and did it, again.

Now it is saying: “You may buy again in San Diego AFTER OR PAST Winter of 2009”. Guess what, I will – if I certainly feel like it then. I may or I may not. Crystal ball won’t punish me if I disobey.

See, my crystal ball has been reliable in the past. Why would I question it now?

[Coronita]

13506 Moonflower Meadows Trail

bought 10/05 for $848K
currently on market for $620K – $670K

Looks like $228K plus sales costs – a potential $250K loss.

 
Oh come on guys. Have you actually taken a look at what this POS looks like? 

 http://bp0.blogger.com/_hui4LGmGP_g/Rj54yAUAXeI/AAAAAAAAATU/N16u8lKQvNY/s1600-h/1.jpg

 This home must have been purchased by someone who didn't even take a look at this place OR was BLIND. It's not physically appealing EVEN AT 600k. $800k for this 2000sqft POS???? Now, if you really want to see homes that lost value in Carmel Valley, do a search on Palacio…Big speculation, crappy homes in crappy location (borders a golf course and right below the 56 interchange…)

 

[Coronita]

sdrealtor,

5357 Carmel Knolls IS right in the heart of CV! Don't think that you can just make everyone ignore it by putting the spotlight on the Pacific Highlands Ranch listing. Huntington Heights (where 5357 Carmel Knolls is) is right in the heart of CV, your basic Pardee development built in 1995 and right around the corner from Sonoma. A $200K loss is pretty significant, wouldn't you say?

I'm also aware of two very painful short sales over the last few months in CV, one in Lexington and the other in Barratt's Paso Fino up on Del Mar Ridge. Plus an ugly bank sale on Durango in Del Mar Heights.

This is just beginning to scratch the surface. Sure, there are still some sales happening in CV, but it is incredibly slow compared to what it was. CV is showing definite signs of increasing weakness. It will be interesting to watch what happens as we move later into the year.

New_Renter

 

I live here. I can definitely say, prices are flat, and showing signs of weakness. Less prime locations are showing more weakness, particularly townhomes. If you search on Crest At Del Mar off of El Camino for example, peak for a 1533 sqft 3b/3b place was about $620k. Recent closings have been around $570-$580k. At first, I thought it might be due to location of these units. But some of these units location is fine.

[sdcellar]

Raybyrnes– I don’t think your example holds water. Their monthly nut on a $250K place was probably around $2000. The property tax and HOA alone in Del Sur is probably going to run them around $1200.

Assume they net $350K on the old place, they’re still going to need a loan of around $400K for the new place. Let’s just call that $3000 a month. Are you sure you want to stick with their payment isn’t changing much?

I’m not saying people aren’t doing this kind of thing, but don’t kid yourself that the “move up” buy makes financial sense in a lot of cases.

[SD Realtor]

Other SD Realtor here. Funny you mention Crest at Del Mar. Had a listing appointment TODAY with an owner there. She bought back in 2004. She paid 495k and has the 3/2.5 floorplan, I think around 1271 sq feet or something like that. I showed her the chronology of what has happened there. By mid 2005 prices for her floorplan had shot up to the mid to higher 500’s. Then in 2006 they started coming down FAST. The last sale of her floorplan was 10/06 and it closed at 460k! She was still thinking she could get mid 500’s.

SD Realtor

[cashman]

Guilty, as charged. Yes, I find myself a bit disgruntled. I sold my home a year and half ago, and have been renting ever since, waiting, and watching, reading Piggington, waiting, watching, and did I mention, reading Piggington. Reading the posts on Piggington made me feel like a friggin’ genious, but reality paints a slightly different truth. The home I sold continued to rise in value, and is currently worth about 600K more than when I sold. Other homes in my area have also gone up in value during this time period. I shop around in OC, thinking my area is just a fluke, and find sales brisk in new developments, with lots of sold stickers on the tract maps, and the most desireable lots gone. Prices are still at outrageous levels and if they have gone down any, it’s like Alex says, just a pittance. There just seems to be too much money here in So. Cal. for the ship to sink. So I sit here in my dumpy 2500 sq. ft. rental after moving out of my 7400 sq. ft. home that would now cost me 600K more to just buy it back, calculating that I’ve spent about 50K in rent so far for this privilege. To be honest, it just doesn’t feel right. All my life I’ve been a homeowner, until now. But you know what? Piggington people are right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I just hope I’m still alive to benefit when the inevitable decline really comes.

[Raybyrnes]

sdcellar

Yeah their payment is changing but relative to their incomes they are not living any different. The increased payment is actually representative of a smaller amount than what they initially purchased their first place. They were stretching more at that time than they are now. Bottom line is that they bought at the right time they have good incomes and they can comfortably buy without worrying about whether or not this is the right or wrong time to buy. They have a 300k margin of safety. I think they are pretty safe.

[maicde]

No amount of rationalizations can change the downturn that has already begun. All things in life have to reach equilibrium, homestasis, balance – whatever term you wish to call it. The only people that are “disgruntled” are those that are directly tied to that which is going on right now. For some of these people, like families, couples, etc., that were trying to get into genuine homeownership and are now looking at foreclosure, bankruptcy, etc., I am sorry for. For the sharks that used the rapid run-up for their own selfish greed, the “whatever goes around, comes around” saying is appropriate.

[NeetaT]

“I also concur with cashman”

I concur with Alex_angel. The simple fact is that if you give a US citizen a dollar, he or she will spend two dollars, thus driving up prices on everything imaginable. I know people in general have a lot of money. If they can’t buy it via cash, they will buy it via credit until they die. We are all hurt by cheap credit. If it were up to me, the prime interest rate would be 20%. Like Alex_angel said, until a million dollar home becomes $300,000.00 like it should be, don’t bother me with your petty discounts. Do I hope your predictions come true? Of course I do. I hope for massive deflation in all aspects, but that never seems to be the case. The Fed will always flood the market with cash to prop up prices, especially home prices. Local and state governments can then collect more in property tax so that they can skim off the top. The question is what are they doing with all that excess property tax? The only answer I can come up with is that it is being skimmed.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I know where your local government put some of the money they collect. They spend over a BILLION dollars outsourcing their IT department to outsourcers who promptly import HB1 workers to dork around with expensive off-the-shelf software full of glitches. These outsources, as usual, always overpromise and under-deliver. Your tax dollars at work – same as it ever was.

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