way too many disgruntled people here

[Cow_tipping]

Yes, alex_angel you should buy the house you want in San Diego. You have obviously done your research.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[Raybyrnes]

JWM

The most disgruntle of them all. All that data and logic and his mechanic neighbor that just pulled the trigger is worth twice as much as him. Can’t handle the fact that you missed out on a huge opportunity. I didn’t buy 6 years ago and I simply can admit that mistake. Must really sour that the author is decribing you to a T. Just a disgruntled person. Once agian my feeling is that you are just a hack.

[sdrealtor]

new renter,
I relie on no one for my opinions, surely not a bunch of Realtors or the REIC. You seem a bit new around here so let me explain. I have an extensive background in market analytics, a couple masters degrees and an inactive CPA to boot. Initially, I expected it to fall faster but I adjust with what I see actually happening as I learn. Also, RE does not put food on the table for me. It is something I do because I genuinely enjoy it. My portfolio as well as the two successful non-RE businesses ensures that my life will be wine and roses for a long time to come.

Buying right now is a very personal decision and one that may not be right for you. For others it is. It’s really that simple.

As for the sales volume YOY, I didnt check and dont really care. Prices are set on the margin and it is the imbalance between supply and demand that causes changes in pricing. Sales might be down a little but inventory is way way down. This imbalance is keeping prices relatively stable in the face of all the issues we all know so well. Right or wrong, it is what is occuring today.

I also agree with you that CV wont be insulated. DM I’m not so sure about. The real issue for you is how long you are willing to wait. To put numbers on it, $50k yearly declines for homes currently selling for roughly $1M today would be pretty robust IMHO. If you are looking at homes in that range I’d be prepared to wait 5 years for it to get down to $750K or even $800K. By them you will be looking at nominal declines of 30% over a period of 8 years with another 20 to 30% loss due to inflation. If that is what you are waiting for, I believe you have a fair chance to get it. If you are looking for more, I think you might be left waiting for more.

[sdrealtor]

FLU,
I’m not commenting on the attached market because I really dont follow it all that much. I focus on the SFR. CV is defintely overbuilt with condos relative to toher coastal areas. Beleive it or not, the same size townhome is as or even more expensive in Encinitas than it is in CV.

Regrading pricing, you just agreed with me. I said prices have flattened and should creep down little by little. Read my posts again.

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
I post regular commentary on the NCC every Monday in The Short Sale Monitor. The fours day I posted on are pretty much the story I’ve seen all Spring. CV is probably the strongest market in all of SD right now followed closely by Encinitas and South Carlsbad. Again, I did not say prices are rising but rather they are holding their own this Spring. Last Spring, inventory was climbing rapidly by this time and prices were falling hard through Spring. This year inventory is modeartate and prices are relatively firm.

BTW, a ratio of 149/63 is very very strong. It’s just over 2 to 1. last year it was closer to 4 to 1.

Lastly, these are very key days we are going through right now. If you are of the mind to move when school ends you put your house on the market in Mid May to early June so you wont have to move b4 school gets out even if it sells quickly. Right or wrong, Alot of people think this way.

[NotCranky]

sdrealtor,
If your data were typical for the last four months the zip code we are discusing would have sold out…
I had it all explained but my computer logged off.
You can think about it if you want or ask me to explain and tell me if I am wrong. A tip… there are approximately 30 four day increments in the year so far. Your four days are miraculous. It looks to me like intentionally or unintentionally you have done a bit of cheerleading. I give you credit for articulating reality in the market most of the time though. I have been reading here for more than a year, probably closer to a year and a half.
The zip code shows a lot of bad signs…nothing like free houses for everyone tomorrow but it would put fear into my heart just like all the rest of them. Listings to pending is strong compared to last spring as you say. I would like to compare it to better times than that.

This Part….. Lastly, these are very key days we are going through right now. If you are of the mind to move when school ends you put your house on the market in Mid May to early June so you wont have to move b4 school gets out even if it sells quickly. Right or wrong, Alot of people think this way…
Tells me you understand buyer motivation that’s all. I hope they have reserves if they are going to CV.

Best wishes,

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
I’ll address your comments in a couple days on The Short Sale monitor when I have access to my historical data. I dont have data for CV back to 2003 and 2004 which were the best of times but I have that data for Encinitas and South Carlsbad. With a bit of extrapolation, I should be able to get an idea of how this year compares with the best of times.

I never said that there arent bad signs in CV. There are bad signs everywhere. But just as there are bad signs, there are good signs also. In CV the balance between the good and the bad is better than anywhere else I have seen in SD.

Lastly, my comment about the next few weeks being key spoke to seller motivation not buyer motivation. Most sellers are optimistic and worry that their house could sell quickly and that they might have to move b4 school goes on Summer break. The most intense listing period from year to year occurs between 5/1 and 6/15.

One final comment which I may have not ever made on this board b4 but I HATE CARMEL VALLEY! There is not enough gold in Ft Knox to make me live there. Too congested, too much attitude and too conservative thinkers.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

How is this for better times? I went back 10 years and checked the Closings for April in 92130

1997 – 28
1998 – 36
1999 – 42
2000 – 36
2001 – 40
2002 – 50
2003 – 59
2004 – 70
2005 – 45
2006 – 45
2007 – 49

Yes there are more houses in CV but my take is that 2003 and 2004 were unusual and probably outliers from a statistical perspective. When people compare current stats with the peak bubble sales and appreciation years they are overstating the decline. I laugh when I see people say we have 6 times more inventory than we did in early 2004 when we had about 3000 properties for sale in SD. That was not a normal inventory level and that horrendous imbalance between supply and demand caused prices to spike dramatically in early 2004. Fortunately, we are now undoing all the effects of that imbalance and if we get back to early 2003 nominal prices we should be back on track IMHO.

[Coronita]

FLU, I'm not commenting on the attached market because I really dont follow it all that much. I focus on the SFR. CV is defintely overbuilt with condos relative to toher coastal areas. Beleive it or not, the same size townhome is as or even more expensive in Encinitas than it is in CV. Regrading pricing, you just agreed with me. I said prices have flattened and should creep down little by little. Read my posts again.

 

Palacio IS a SFH development near the 5/56 interchange. And it's seen it's fair share of big misses. Also Sausalito is SFH too. Take a look at those peak prices and compare that to current Sasalito listings.

 

I'm pointing out that the decline is starting in CV, starting first with the less desirable locations and developments in SFH and also all attached homes….

 

Speaking of which, I was visiting a friend today at Crest in Carmel Valley. Thought I'd share two pictures that I thought was interesting. (Folks, pleae don't crack open the wine for this..I’m sure the sign is more of a marketing/hype to pump up interest at this point because rarely are real FC so blatantly advertised.)

[img_assist|nid=3409|title=crest1|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350][img_assist|nid=3410|title=crest2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]

[Coronita]

Also, recall my posting about folks being on crack…Well, here’s another one @Crest that was a short sale. I believe it’s still available (although I could be wrong)….

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1630935&p3=-1&ix=59

[cashman]

Rustico, to answer your questions, I sold in Nov.’05 for 2M. I had no loans, it was all equity, minus commissions, of course. It was the lowest priced 7000+ ft. home listed in the neighborhood, but I feel I got a fair price at the time. Others were priced higher, but not selling. The top end of the neighborhood was abot 3M. As of last month, it was worth approx. 2.6M, so that’s a 30% gain in roughly 18 months. Now there are homes here priced at 4.5M. It’s insane! The market here is without question behind other areas. Biggest gains were in ’06, right after I sold, of course!! Anyway, I’m really not bitter. I’m just posting for amusement, as I’m in a good cash situation. But I would like to eventually buy again, and sometimes wonder if prices will really come down to meet the fundamentals in my lifetime.

[JWM in SD]

Raybyrnes,

I did buy six years ago, in Chicago. I also sold and made nice chunk of money in 2004 before I moved to San Diego in September of 2004 because my wife is a naval pharmacist and was assigned here. So I guess that makes me a hack. Whatever. You can’t handle it when your arguments are shot down flames by multiple posters. Get lost.

[JWM in SD]

Additionally, that hypothetical neighbor you speak of, well if really did just pull the trigger, then he’s already lost money in this market. If he were to turn around and immediately put that property back on the market, he would lose money on the fees to do so not to mention the declining values and I won’t even get into inflation.

Second, net worth is defined as Assets MINUS LIABILITIES. You see, I was trained in accounting..I know those kinds of things. My net worth is largely liquid..not tied up in depreciating asset and we have 0 debt. Yes, not even student loans.

Once again Raybyrnes, you are not prepared.

Keep posting there Raybyrnes, it’s fun to watch you get shot down in flames everytime. It is truly entertaining.

[sdrealtor]

FLU,
Again you are debating yourself. The decline isnt starting in CV. It started 18 months ago. Last year prices declined quite significantly between Winter and Spring. This year prices in Late Spring are flat from prices in the Winter. This wasnt the case last year. There probably arent enough data points for a real solid statisical analysis but that is what I am seeing along the NC coast. Once he get into August, demand should slow down and prices will suffer. I have never said anything different.

BTW, under $700K there are 3 active lstings and 4 pendings

[NotCranky]

Cashman,Thanks for responding…I overlooked the fact that you were not talking about San Diego. Nothing down here fits your description and time frame. Glad your doing O.K. though. Must be pretty good having your interest earnings cover twice your rent and then some.
Best wishes.

[Author]

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