way too many disgruntled people here

[tech_junkie]

I know where your local government put some of the money they collect. They spend over a BILLION dollars outsourcing their IT department to outsourcers who promptly import HB1 workers to dork around with expensive off-the-shelf software full of glitches. These outsources, as usual, always overpromise and under-deliver. Your tax dollars at work – same as it ever was. I love the topic of outsourcing….

 

Ohhh please.. Stop complaining about losing "our" jobs overseas to some H1-b holders. If you're skills are top notch their's absolutely no reason why you should be having a problem finding good work at great pay. If you're job is being outsourced, chances are you need to either (1) update your skills (2) switch into another profession or (3) switch to another company that's more in touch with the reality that only a small percentage of outsourcing actually really works in the long run. The reason why my company is hiring some h1-b's is because WE CAN'T FIND QUALIFIED people. For example, computer "programmers" that know just a language are dime a dozen. I've reviewed/interviewed a bunch of candidates that all say they "know C++, Java,C, perl etc", but then when I ask them to design a simple college grad question like a simply message queuing system, they can't do it. …But but but… They're MSFT certified, Java Certified, C++ certified….Right?…….That must mean something..Sorry, I have to say that when I see a resume that has the little Java/Msft certification logo on it, it immediately turns me off. Why? Because to be certified Java "programmer", you only need to have pass their test with 60% rate. You could guess on half the test and only know the remaining 10percent to be "certified". Besides, most companies these days don't need people that are language experts…Crap code generation tools can do a better job than hackers. And we're not exactly just porting code from one language to another. Even if we were, we WOULD outsource that to some place in india/china because it's pretty mechanical and would be dirt cheap… OR we would hire a college intern that could do that. We have basically opened development centers overseas because frankly those folks skills are top notch. And in terms of cost, hiring people in Banglore isn't exactly cheap anymore either, even in terms of U.S. dollars. Paying someone good in India is closer to $50-75/hour but is much more resonable than paying someone like $100/hr here who can't even write a simple hello world program.

[NeetaT]

I really don’t care about outsourcing, but I do know that the people hired through outsourcing do tend to work harder than your conventional US citizen. I should know, because my wife is a legal resident from India who outperforms all her co-workers.

I just want to know what these idiots did or are doing with the property tax revenue that doubled if not tripled in the last few years. Some people are paying as much as $1,000.00 a month in property tax for what? Let me guess; a library for thugs who don’t want to work to go to and sit at a computer and watch MTV, a police force that does nothing to the person who stole your car, schools that harbor drug pushers and miscreants, parks riddled with graffiti, highway and bridge tolls, pot holes, higher gas prices than the rest of the country, overpriced smog certificates, a state lottery that has done nothing to improve schools, etc…….

“One argument is that selling Montgomery would help the City through its financial crisis. Early this year, the San Diego Institute for Policy Research, a think tank run by former mayoral candidate Steven Francis, asked 503 randomly selected San Diegans how they would prefer to deal with the crisis: would they sell off assets or raise taxes? A full 61.8 percent said selling assets such as Montgomery would be their first (37.7 percent) or second (24.1 percent) choice. Only 12 percent opposed this stratagem, although many financial experts warn that selling off juicy assets to skate past a crisis is self-destructive in the long run. Raising taxes was the first or second choice of only 44.7 percent of those polled.”

[mixxalot]

You hit a sore point with me on this outsourcing issue:

“Stop complaining about losing “our” jobs overseas to some H1-b holders. If you’re skills are top notch their’s absolutely no reason why you should be having a problem finding good work at great pay. ”

When the job market is good, it does not matter. However in recessions why do we export our technical trademarks to communist china and foreign nations who have no concern for the USA? I blame it on dumb politicians and greedy execs.

Yes, I do have solid technical skills and have been okay in the IT arena. The whole idea of H-1B Visa is pure and simple: CHEAP LABOR and NO TAXES for large transnational corporations.

[Bugs]

Raybrnes,

“Yeah their payment is changing but relative to their incomes they are not living any different. The increased payment is actually representative of a smaller amount than what they initially purchased their first place. They were stretching more at that time than they are now.”

You couldn’t be more incorrect about what percentage of their income people are paying in order to debt service these prices.

At the top of Rich’s homepage he actually has an update to a piece he wrote a couple years back about rates, prices and payments. Unfortunately I was unable to find his original article ’cause it was a doozy.

Rich explains that during the same period when interests rates dropped to their currently low levels, the percentage of income people were paying actually increased by 75%. That means that even though their purchasing power had increased as a result of the lower interest rates, the prices were increasing at an even faster rate, wiping out any savings they would have had.

And logically speaking, that would make sense. How else could a region that’s had maybe 15% growth in wages since 1996 possibly support a 300% increase in home prices, if not for it coming in the form of some buyers paying a larger share of their income? Your assertion that people are actually paying less not only flunks a cursory review of the statistics on wages vs. pricing, it flunks the reality test as demonstrated by the explosion of the NOD/NOT rates as well as the most basic of analyses using simple deductive logic. +15% in income and -15% in interest rates will not support 300% increases in pricing.

Think about it and let us know if you can refute that simple line of reasoning.

Most recent buyers are paying MORE of their income towards their housing that they were prior to 2001, not less. The only exceptions would be people who purchased prior to 2001 and didn’t withdraw equity when they refinanced, which to be sure includes some people, but not the majority of recent buyers. I agree that anyone who has a 50% equity stake in their home is in no danger of losing their home, but that doesn’t mean their equity is safe.

[Bugs]

Cashman,

I would still dispute whether you actually missed out on that much equity, but that’s a matter of opinion.

Regardless, if you were following Piggington’s you know that we are SD-centric. What you may not have realized is that the south LA/north OC areas are running on a different clock. If the market in SD County is fragmented that variance would be compounded exponentially when analyzing different regional economies. SD County is separate from the LA basin areas.

The area you sold in is only now levelling off in preparation for its participation in this correction.

[34f3f3f]

Everybody, listen! I am the one with the crystal ball.

Where can you get these crystal balls? I tried Target but the nearest they came to it was a cut glass chandelier “…if it starts to rattle, dive under a table.”

[sdrealtor]

New renter
You are correct that Carmel Knolls is in the heart of CV and I just happened to miss that post. If you read my f/u, I asked for someone to find one in the heart of CV and you did. I mentioned that I know they are there. I have a client who I spent about 8 months looking in CV. Ultimately, he decided the risk was too high there and that there wasnt anything unique about it other than location for his tastes. We are now looking in DM at much higher priced homes and have been for about 6 months. BTW, the ugly REO on Durango was an ugly house with DM Heights Rd as its backyard. I certainly wouldnt consider that representative of what is happening in Del Mar.

As for you comments about weakness in CV, I dont agree. Inventory is close to half of what it was last year and pending are up. Alot of the new construction in CV is finishing up as well minimizing competition for resales. I am not saying that prices are going up in CV because they arent as far as I can see. What I am seeing there is the same thing I see in Encinitas/South Carlsbad. Prices have fallen about 10% off the peak and buyers are coming back more decisively this year due to the new lower prices. Last year, sellers were in denial and buyers were scared. Sellers that priced appropriately last year sold. Sellers that didnt price appropriately last year are facing slightly lower prices if they still want to sell this year but stronger demand from more motivated buyers. I expect, this demand rally will sputter out by mid-August and that we will see a small price decline in Fall/Winter and then healthy demand again next Spring. This will continue on for many years.

[NotCranky]

cashman..this is true?
“The home I sold continued to rise in value, and is currently worth about 600K more than when I sold.”
Was that a 2% increase, 50% increase or what?
If you had a house that went up 600k in a year and a half the starting point must have been so high that it is hard to imagine that 50k on rent matters. You must have also saved a few g’s on proprty tax eh? Were you free and clear or was your intererst portion of your mortgage close or exceeding what you paid in rent.
I seem to remember you sold for under a million. maybe you just sold too cheaply? Has the market increased wherever you lived by 60%-70% in 18 months?

In any case I have looked for a guarantee for that “crystal ball” everyone keeps talking about and I can’t find it. Nor can I find that Rich had offered a guarantee to anyone. But he seems honest. What else could you ask. Sour grapes is sour grapes.I am not directing that at you just to the discussion on this thread in general. I think it’s better just to have real balls. Besides that it is only money people are worried about(including myself,too much)… Reminder.. we do still live in southern California…don’t you guys all surf and stuff like that…Cheer up everybody…These are the best of times.

[sdrealtor]

Just ran a quick report on CV ZIP (92130) for the last 4 days.

1 New Listing
2 Fell out of escrow
8 Went into escrow
3 closed escrow

Does that look like a weak market to anyone?

It looks pretty hott to moi!

[New_Renter]

sdrealtor,
So to summarize, you are saying that prices are going to fall in CV for many years, but it will be an agonizingly slow process, right? This is one scenario that seems to be popular among the realtor crowd, as it is a scenario that is hard to argue, and one that will keep food on the table for the more savy realtors in the CV/DM area. It also sells well with clients giving them a comfort level that if they buy now, they’ll be just fine in the long run. If your scenario is right, though, why in the world would I buy now? Checking DataQuick’s March closings for CV SRF’s I see only 44 sales in 07′ vs. 57 in 06′. Doesn’t sound like much of a Spring rally to me considering that 06′ was horrible compared to 05′. I’m sure April/May are stronger than March though, as you indicate. The only area where I really disagree with you is I believe the Fall/Winter decline will be more significant, as the effects of mortgage morass is going to be kicking in earnest as ARM’s adjust upward.

sdrealtor, I guess you could say I’m alot like your client that looked for 8 months in CV and moved on because of the risk. We’re newly renting in CV and now waiting to buy again. We know we want to buy in CV/DM area, but hope that by waiting we’ll get more for our money in the next couple years. I don’t consider CV/DM to be insulated from the rest. In my opinion it will suffer proportionally smaller overall declines than less desireable markets, but if the whole San Diego market is going down, CV/DM is going with it for sure, as has already proven been the case so far.

[Coronita]

Just ran a quick report on CV ZIP (92130) for the last 4 days. 1 New Listing 2 Fell out of escrow 8 Went into escrow 3 closed escrow Does that look like a weak market to anyone? It looks pretty hott to moi!

 

sdrealtor, I don't have access to get real sales history since I'm not an agent. But do me a favor.

 

Please search for sales history on all Crest at Del Mar Townhomes in 92130 since 2004. The address should be 124XX 125XX , 126XX, El Camino Real on 3 bedroom places.

 

There's basically three floor plans: 3bd/2.5bath 1533, 3/2.5 1564, and 3bd/3bath 1584.

The 1533 and 1564 sqft plan sold at peak between $620k-$640k (depending on upgrades).

The 1584sqft plan saw $660k-$70k if i remember.

 

Current sales history are as follow:

 

12559 EL CAMINO REAL E

92130

571,000

3

3

1584

360.48

1998

2/13/2007

12611 EL CAMINO REAL E

92130

575,000

3

2.5

1564

367.65

1998

1/18/2007

12545 EL CAMINO REAL F

92130

605,000

3

3

1584

381.94

1998

3/27/2007

Nothing wrong with this complex. It's actually quite nice imho. Just it appears it's softening. Also, it didn't help that around that place Pell Place went up, Carmel Pointe and the Heights converted.

 

Also pull up sales history for Palacio. Those home have fallen too if i recall.

 

..I have not seen a great hemoraging in SFH in Torrey Hills (yet). Some people overpaid possibly at Sausalito (I recall 1-2 folks paid over $800k for these homes in 2005).

Also, note: I’m not one of these folks who are disgruntled either way. I bought here in 92130 in 2004. And you know what I don’t care if my home falls 20-30%+ because I can afford it and it satisfies my material needs. Yes, I would love for a sucker to offer $1.3million for my place, but I don’t think anyone can deny that prices are flatlined here and attached homes/and some sfh in crappy locations have started to weaken. I can say this because even as current owner, I go to about every open house in the TH area when I can.

[NotCranky]

Just ran a quick report on CV ZIP (92130) for the last 4 days.

1 New Listing
2 Fell out of escrow
8 Went into escrow
3 closed escrow

Does that look like a weak market to anyone?

It looks pretty hott to moi!

What?
Four days and four bits of data? In GOD we trust all others bring OBJECTIVE data. Four awesomely beautiful days in spring in SOCAL? The Information is there to do a better job than that. Is inventory for sale or pending growing faster?(The ratios look pretty good now but not exceptiional (149/63). Median and Average sales price getting stronger or weaker? DOM decreased a bit in the last few months which way do you think that number will be going from here out?

Sorry to pick a fight with you but people do give you a lot of credit here. They tolerate RE types and that’s pretty amazing for a site of this nature.

[Raybyrnes]

Bugs,

I am not disputing that their are buyers that you described that are paying more of their income in housing. I am just providing an example of a couple that is not. So where there is one example there are more. It goes both ways.

[Coronita]

Other SD Realtor here. Funny you mention Crest at Del Mar. Had a listing appointment TODAY with an owner there. She bought back in 2004. She paid 495k and has the 3/2.5 floorplan, I think around 1271 sq feet or something like that. I showed her the chronology of what has happened there. By mid 2005 prices for her floorplan had shot up to the mid to higher 500's. Then in 2006 they started coming down FAST. The last sale of her floorplan was 10/06 and it closed at 460k! She was still thinking she could get mid 500's.

 

First I'm fat and lazy, not SD-Realtor. Second, I think your potential client had a 2 bedroom, not three. There is no 3/2.5 1271sqft at Crest. The mid 500ks sound consistent with what 2005 would be. But truthfully, I didn't follow anything smaller than 3/2, so I don't remember.

[JWM in SD]

Where is the example??? How about the near vertical rate of growth in foreclosures? You’ve completely ignored what Bugs told you.

You need to get your head of the sand or you are disingenous in your arguments because there is so much evidence to the contrary. Why are you even posting here if this is the best that you can do?

[Author]

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