way too many disgruntled people here

[34f3f3f]

Well, I think there may be a few disgruntled people here, but you can’t blame them for that. A 300% increase in house prices has locked many out of the market. It’s plainly ridiculous to put it mildy. Some have allowed themselves to be seduced by “liar loans”, and it’s pretty hard on someone who’s had their house taken away from them. There are many who can afford to buy, but won’t because a) they would be paying way over the odds, and b) simply moving away is not that simple for those who have work, or families in the area.

There is not a sane person I have met who has openly declared the state of the housing market, as normal, and without potential risk to home owners, and having possible long term cosequences for the national economy. They include realtors, mortgage brokers, investment advisors, and the media.

I’m not sure anyone wants to see a “crash” because that is not in most people’s interests. I think many would like to see a gradual return to normalcy with as few casualties as possible.

[Anonymous]

Speak for yourself, I want causalties, the more the better. These aholes who knowingly paid more than they could afford through stated income and other gimmick loans caused prices to become irrational. I hope every last one of them goes bankrupt and moves out of San Diego. Eff them all.

[NotCranky]

“I want causalties, the more the better.”
It would be quicker if you took a baseball bat to them .I am only suggesting a little humor not real violence. I do wonder though …How many people have gotten ulcers over this effen bubble? Priced out and priced in alike.
Got Malox?

[sddorkgirl]

http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/Americas_Most_Overpriced_Real_Estate_Markets.html

[The OC Scam]

Alex,

What your feeling is anxiety your blood pressure is going through the roof. Take the advice as others have said be patience and some xanax!!!!

Don’t you remember what we have been through in the last five years watching your neighborhood go from 289K to 675K?

In 2006 we all said to each other why are houses still selling?

Now the truth is out! There were Agents swinging bats at loan offices to intimate approvals to poor ignorant fools. My friend’s sister bought a 700k with nothing down on a combined 80k income and now is in default and they are not ignorant but fools. Whose fault is that?

You held in there this long and said what a lot people feel deep inside. But don’t give up now the party is almost over and YES unfortunately everyone has to pitch in to clean-up.

And one more reminder please bring the data about all the millionaires buying homes in San Diego with endless cash in the bank? The data I see reads otherwise…..

[New_Renter]

Alex_anger (er, angel),

You asked for someone to show you a Carmel Valley SFR that is falling, I can tell you there have been a number of them. How about:

5357 Carmel Knolls Drive
Purchased on 9/30/05 for $1,375,000
Currently on sale for $1,249,000
Days on Market: 58 Days and 1 price drop later, and still waiting for a buyer!
Assuming a conservative 6% selling cost, this seller is staring at a $200,940 loss, nearly 15% in 1 1/2 years. And that’s if they get their asking price!

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071021758-5357_Carmel_Knolls_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92130

Wakeup and look around you Alex…

[Critter]

Here’s another Carmel Valley home, selling for a loss:

13506 Moonflower Meadows Trail

bought 10/05 for $848K
currently on market for $620K – $670K

Looks like $228K plus sales costs – a potential $250K loss.

[blahblahblah]

Looks like $228K plus sales costs – a potential $250K loss.

D’OH! Damn that’s serious.

[sdrealtor]

Critter thats not really CV. It’s closer to PQ than CV.

[an]

According to the map, it seems like 13506 Moonflower Meadows Trail is smack dab in the middle of 92130 zip code. So I don’t see how it can be closer to PQ than CV when it’s right in the middle of CV zip code.

[Reality]

Have we seen any facts or even statistics to back up Alex’s posts yet?

Didn’t think so.

[anxvariety]

Alex, why did you mention Qualcomm in your original post. You said if QCOM were to go down, the market then at that point could? I’m guessing since you compared it to military that you’re just pointing out workforce size. It’s well established that Qualcomm is not the biggest employer in San Diego so do they have some sort of alter ego that we should know about?

[noone]

Wow! You really touched a nerve! 3 pages of responses in one day. I can’t even read them all. But I have to say, never take advice from someone then blame them when the advice turns out to be bad. Make your own decisions, and take responsibility for them.

The truth is that you have a lot of things right. There are a lot of posts that are absurd in “the sky is falling” arena. I take those with a grain of salt though. Or I assume that there is some sarcastic humor behind them.

“People all say wait a year or two to buy. I have heard this since 2000 and its 2007…”

No one is more surprised about the how long and how high the current rise has lasted than “intelligent” investors. However, you are right that no one has a crystal ball so everyone gets blindsided at some point. Keep in mind though, the argument that “it hasn’t happened yet” seldom lasts long.

“The bottom line is if you can afford the home, buy it, else move somewhere else or lower your expectations.”

This brings up the topic of affordability. Most, yes most, people who have bought homes in the past 5 years cannot truly afford them. Yes they can afford the minimum payments based on their ARM, interest-only, or neg-am loans, but once those loans reset, these folks generally have two options, re-finance or sell. For more and more of these home buyers, the refinancing option is no longer available. This leaves them in the must-sell category. Don’t you think that’s bound to bring prices down? I buy the idea that it’s just a slow process.

“Now I don’t own and can’t afford anything in this city anymore. I make a great income which still puts me into a shitty situation with San Diego real estate. I am not going to buy only because I can’t afford it.”

Ultimately this is the key. Doesn’t that tell you something? Only a very few (like 1%) can truly afford the homes that are selling in the decent neighborhoods. But that hasn’t stopped people from buying. I’m feeling the same way as you. I make a great salary, but I can’t truly afford even a $500K home much less a $750k home. Yeah sure, I can qualify for some ridiculous ARM loan, and make the first few years payments, but that’s not the same as truly being able to afford it. That is irresponsible, and I won’t do that to my family. We are doing just fine in our rented house.

How many other people do you think are in the same position? How many of those do you think pulled the trigger in the past 5 years assuming that they would be able to refinance and use their equity to make up the difference? How many of those do you think will instead end up in trouble in the next 3-5 years? My guess is quite a few, but yes that’s just a guess. The evidence is strong enough though to make me believe that these situations will cause prices to come down dramatically, even if it’s not quickly.

Most of what I read here, is not anger, but disgust. Disgust at people who say they are willing to take the risk, but blame everyone else when the deal goes bad.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
A quick geography lesson. City boundaries, School district boundaries and yes even ZIP Code Boundaries are not the same. The house on Moonflower is in Pacific Highlands Ranch (I believe). Technically it might be in the same ZIP and schoold district but ask anyone who lives in CV and they will say it is quastionable as to whether that is part of CV. Its like 92014 (Del Mar) CV neighbor to the west. There are many houses west of 5 that are in the SD City limits. Askthose owners and they live in Del Mar. Ask someone in the village or the colony areas of Del Mar and they would say you live in SD.

Rather than arguing semantics, it would be better for someone to come up with an example in the Heart of CV in one of the prime neighborhoods like Sonoma near Ashley Falls Elementary. That would be a real sign of decline in CV. I’m sure there are some there.

sdr

[JJGittes]

sdr is right. Its kind of like comparing Rancho Carillo to La Costa Valley. Both in 92009 Carlsbad, but one is in the San Marcos school district, and the other is in the San Dieguito/Enc. Union school district. Big time apples and oranges. Actually, more like apples and turnips. Nonetheless, I think everywhere is off the high by some percentage, and if anyone is paying an all time high for a particular house in a neighborhood right now, I think they are fooolish. But in prime areas, things are certainly not dire.

[Author]

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