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  • January 5, 2009 at 12:03 PM #324605
    davelj
    Participant

    [quote=Mark Holmes]

    Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

    [/quote]

    Anything is possible. But the probabilities for various scenarios vary significantly. A 20% decline from here isn’t a stretch. A 30%-50% decline is a bit of a stretch, based on where prices would be relative to rents and income (even assuming some measure of decline in both). Doesn’t mean it can’t happen – anything is possible, after all – just means it’s unlikely. Also, more importantly (and more relevant to this thread), I’m guessing the folks here aren’t buying “average deals” – they’re looking for “bargains,” and today’s bargains (all relative, of course) will fall less than the median. Hell, even OCRenter (“renting sucks”) is buying. It doesn’t mean he’s right; just means a lot of the risk has been taken out of the equation if you do your homework.

    January 5, 2009 at 1:58 PM #324165
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    It’s easier for some folks to sit in a dark corner full of fear and afraid of the future. Some choose to stay there. Others see opportunity and create their own bottoms by doing lots of homework and finding a home they love at price below current market conditions.

    January 5, 2009 at 1:58 PM #324498
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    It’s easier for some folks to sit in a dark corner full of fear and afraid of the future. Some choose to stay there. Others see opportunity and create their own bottoms by doing lots of homework and finding a home they love at price below current market conditions.

    January 5, 2009 at 1:58 PM #324566
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    It’s easier for some folks to sit in a dark corner full of fear and afraid of the future. Some choose to stay there. Others see opportunity and create their own bottoms by doing lots of homework and finding a home they love at price below current market conditions.

    January 5, 2009 at 1:58 PM #324584
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    It’s easier for some folks to sit in a dark corner full of fear and afraid of the future. Some choose to stay there. Others see opportunity and create their own bottoms by doing lots of homework and finding a home they love at price below current market conditions.

    January 5, 2009 at 1:58 PM #324665
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    It’s easier for some folks to sit in a dark corner full of fear and afraid of the future. Some choose to stay there. Others see opportunity and create their own bottoms by doing lots of homework and finding a home they love at price below current market conditions.

    January 5, 2009 at 2:32 PM #324185
    peterb
    Participant

    It also very easy for someone who benefits from real estate transactions to recommend people take action no matter what the outcome. “…to sit in a dark corner full of fear..” This is a completely non-analytical statement.

    Consider the source and follow the money.

    January 5, 2009 at 2:32 PM #324518
    peterb
    Participant

    It also very easy for someone who benefits from real estate transactions to recommend people take action no matter what the outcome. “…to sit in a dark corner full of fear..” This is a completely non-analytical statement.

    Consider the source and follow the money.

    January 5, 2009 at 2:32 PM #324587
    peterb
    Participant

    It also very easy for someone who benefits from real estate transactions to recommend people take action no matter what the outcome. “…to sit in a dark corner full of fear..” This is a completely non-analytical statement.

    Consider the source and follow the money.

    January 5, 2009 at 2:32 PM #324604
    peterb
    Participant

    It also very easy for someone who benefits from real estate transactions to recommend people take action no matter what the outcome. “…to sit in a dark corner full of fear..” This is a completely non-analytical statement.

    Consider the source and follow the money.

    January 5, 2009 at 2:32 PM #324685
    peterb
    Participant

    It also very easy for someone who benefits from real estate transactions to recommend people take action no matter what the outcome. “…to sit in a dark corner full of fear..” This is a completely non-analytical statement.

    Consider the source and follow the money.

    January 5, 2009 at 2:37 PM #324190
    ibjames
    Participant

    In all of my wisdom my wife is really against buying now, she used to be a chick that needed a house because “darn it, we deserve it!” type chicks.. now she’s a house nazi. I couldn’t get her to buy now no matter how sweet the deal is.

    I think higher priced homes still have to go down in price. There is a lot of room for contraction. I can’t help but think that if the more expensive housing in nicer neighborhoods declines, it will also affect the middle/lower income areas again as people may be able to afford better neighborhoods.

    Needless to say we are sitting on our hands/wallets for a while. Plus, why not wait and see what happens when all the smoke clears, we’ve waited 3+ years already!

    January 5, 2009 at 2:37 PM #324523
    ibjames
    Participant

    In all of my wisdom my wife is really against buying now, she used to be a chick that needed a house because “darn it, we deserve it!” type chicks.. now she’s a house nazi. I couldn’t get her to buy now no matter how sweet the deal is.

    I think higher priced homes still have to go down in price. There is a lot of room for contraction. I can’t help but think that if the more expensive housing in nicer neighborhoods declines, it will also affect the middle/lower income areas again as people may be able to afford better neighborhoods.

    Needless to say we are sitting on our hands/wallets for a while. Plus, why not wait and see what happens when all the smoke clears, we’ve waited 3+ years already!

    January 5, 2009 at 2:37 PM #324592
    ibjames
    Participant

    In all of my wisdom my wife is really against buying now, she used to be a chick that needed a house because “darn it, we deserve it!” type chicks.. now she’s a house nazi. I couldn’t get her to buy now no matter how sweet the deal is.

    I think higher priced homes still have to go down in price. There is a lot of room for contraction. I can’t help but think that if the more expensive housing in nicer neighborhoods declines, it will also affect the middle/lower income areas again as people may be able to afford better neighborhoods.

    Needless to say we are sitting on our hands/wallets for a while. Plus, why not wait and see what happens when all the smoke clears, we’ve waited 3+ years already!

    January 5, 2009 at 2:37 PM #324609
    ibjames
    Participant

    In all of my wisdom my wife is really against buying now, she used to be a chick that needed a house because “darn it, we deserve it!” type chicks.. now she’s a house nazi. I couldn’t get her to buy now no matter how sweet the deal is.

    I think higher priced homes still have to go down in price. There is a lot of room for contraction. I can’t help but think that if the more expensive housing in nicer neighborhoods declines, it will also affect the middle/lower income areas again as people may be able to afford better neighborhoods.

    Needless to say we are sitting on our hands/wallets for a while. Plus, why not wait and see what happens when all the smoke clears, we’ve waited 3+ years already!

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