Thinking about jumping in….

[fredo4]

uggh! Mello roos- what a rip! I’d do almost anything to avoid it since that money is just down the toilet.
Practically speaking, this year is just such a crap shoot. Why not wait until we see in which direction everything is going? There are a lot of pretty reliable sources predicting some pretty dire scenarios in the next year.
I’d love to quit renting and buy another house this year too. I really want a stable home for my kids, but things are just too unpredictable right now.
We may end up moving to a nicer rental this year if anything.

[SD Realtor]

outtamojo you captured it well. In this corner is a true free market where struggling industry must layoff workers as the economy contracts. In the other corner is the government that seems to think they can tax everyone and now pick and choose what industry they want to essentially subsidize in what can only be characterized as an effort to stall things.

As the economy continues to deteriorate it will be no surprise at all to see the incoming administration attempt to throw yet more tax money and IOUs at the problem.

I do believe higher end areas like the area WFB is looking at will continue to run downhill but the pace will be agonizingly slow. As many of already know there is a tsunami of resets coming, do not FOR A MINUTE think that the likes of Barney Frank and all of the other people in charge do not know of the same thing. I am sure they have plenty of magic money to help continue the great stall.

To me this will culminate in a prolonged period of depreciation with chunks down that could happen in seasonal slow times like late summer. Tough to say. However I think that it will take awhile and those people looking for double digit decline bargains from where prices are now are going to be disappointed. There may be a onesy twosy (see the current listing on Chapalita in Encinitas) but those will get bid up.

If the government keeps quiet and lets the market run then we will see some nice large declines and ALL be very happy.

[SD Realtor]

outtamojo you captured it well. In this corner is a true free market where struggling industry must layoff workers as the economy contracts. In the other corner is the government that seems to think they can tax everyone and now pick and choose what industry they want to essentially subsidize in what can only be characterized as an effort to stall things.

As the economy continues to deteriorate it will be no surprise at all to see the incoming administration attempt to throw yet more tax money and IOUs at the problem.

I do believe higher end areas like the area WFB is looking at will continue to run downhill but the pace will be agonizingly slow. As many of already know there is a tsunami of resets coming, do not FOR A MINUTE think that the likes of Barney Frank and all of the other people in charge do not know of the same thing. I am sure they have plenty of magic money to help continue the great stall.

To me this will culminate in a prolonged period of depreciation with chunks down that could happen in seasonal slow times like late summer. Tough to say. However I think that it will take awhile and those people looking for double digit decline bargains from where prices are now are going to be disappointed. There may be a onesy twosy (see the current listing on Chapalita in Encinitas) but those will get bid up.

If the government keeps quiet and lets the market run then we will see some nice large declines and ALL be very happy.

[SD Realtor]

outtamojo you captured it well. In this corner is a true free market where struggling industry must layoff workers as the economy contracts. In the other corner is the government that seems to think they can tax everyone and now pick and choose what industry they want to essentially subsidize in what can only be characterized as an effort to stall things.

As the economy continues to deteriorate it will be no surprise at all to see the incoming administration attempt to throw yet more tax money and IOUs at the problem.

I do believe higher end areas like the area WFB is looking at will continue to run downhill but the pace will be agonizingly slow. As many of already know there is a tsunami of resets coming, do not FOR A MINUTE think that the likes of Barney Frank and all of the other people in charge do not know of the same thing. I am sure they have plenty of magic money to help continue the great stall.

To me this will culminate in a prolonged period of depreciation with chunks down that could happen in seasonal slow times like late summer. Tough to say. However I think that it will take awhile and those people looking for double digit decline bargains from where prices are now are going to be disappointed. There may be a onesy twosy (see the current listing on Chapalita in Encinitas) but those will get bid up.

If the government keeps quiet and lets the market run then we will see some nice large declines and ALL be very happy.

[SD Realtor]

outtamojo you captured it well. In this corner is a true free market where struggling industry must layoff workers as the economy contracts. In the other corner is the government that seems to think they can tax everyone and now pick and choose what industry they want to essentially subsidize in what can only be characterized as an effort to stall things.

As the economy continues to deteriorate it will be no surprise at all to see the incoming administration attempt to throw yet more tax money and IOUs at the problem.

I do believe higher end areas like the area WFB is looking at will continue to run downhill but the pace will be agonizingly slow. As many of already know there is a tsunami of resets coming, do not FOR A MINUTE think that the likes of Barney Frank and all of the other people in charge do not know of the same thing. I am sure they have plenty of magic money to help continue the great stall.

To me this will culminate in a prolonged period of depreciation with chunks down that could happen in seasonal slow times like late summer. Tough to say. However I think that it will take awhile and those people looking for double digit decline bargains from where prices are now are going to be disappointed. There may be a onesy twosy (see the current listing on Chapalita in Encinitas) but those will get bid up.

If the government keeps quiet and lets the market run then we will see some nice large declines and ALL be very happy.

[SD Realtor]

outtamojo you captured it well. In this corner is a true free market where struggling industry must layoff workers as the economy contracts. In the other corner is the government that seems to think they can tax everyone and now pick and choose what industry they want to essentially subsidize in what can only be characterized as an effort to stall things.

As the economy continues to deteriorate it will be no surprise at all to see the incoming administration attempt to throw yet more tax money and IOUs at the problem.

I do believe higher end areas like the area WFB is looking at will continue to run downhill but the pace will be agonizingly slow. As many of already know there is a tsunami of resets coming, do not FOR A MINUTE think that the likes of Barney Frank and all of the other people in charge do not know of the same thing. I am sure they have plenty of magic money to help continue the great stall.

To me this will culminate in a prolonged period of depreciation with chunks down that could happen in seasonal slow times like late summer. Tough to say. However I think that it will take awhile and those people looking for double digit decline bargains from where prices are now are going to be disappointed. There may be a onesy twosy (see the current listing on Chapalita in Encinitas) but those will get bid up.

If the government keeps quiet and lets the market run then we will see some nice large declines and ALL be very happy.

[pemeliza]

“My theory is that rates will be low for the next 3-6 months and then inflation will take its toll and we will never be below 7% again – and likely spend many years in 9-10 range.”

I have been studying this situation closely for the last 12 months (so I’m far from an expert) but I don’t think we will see interest rates in the 7% range for at least 5-10 years. At least.

It is unlikely we will see much inflation (most think we are in deflation) for the next 5 years. Even if we do see inflation, the government is going to be very very slow to act on it.

I think the one thing we can count on during this debacle is low interest rates.

Also keep in mind that 7% rates would destroy this low-end market recovery we have seen which would send prices even lower IMHO.

[pemeliza]

“My theory is that rates will be low for the next 3-6 months and then inflation will take its toll and we will never be below 7% again – and likely spend many years in 9-10 range.”

I have been studying this situation closely for the last 12 months (so I’m far from an expert) but I don’t think we will see interest rates in the 7% range for at least 5-10 years. At least.

It is unlikely we will see much inflation (most think we are in deflation) for the next 5 years. Even if we do see inflation, the government is going to be very very slow to act on it.

I think the one thing we can count on during this debacle is low interest rates.

Also keep in mind that 7% rates would destroy this low-end market recovery we have seen which would send prices even lower IMHO.

[pemeliza]

“My theory is that rates will be low for the next 3-6 months and then inflation will take its toll and we will never be below 7% again – and likely spend many years in 9-10 range.”

I have been studying this situation closely for the last 12 months (so I’m far from an expert) but I don’t think we will see interest rates in the 7% range for at least 5-10 years. At least.

It is unlikely we will see much inflation (most think we are in deflation) for the next 5 years. Even if we do see inflation, the government is going to be very very slow to act on it.

I think the one thing we can count on during this debacle is low interest rates.

Also keep in mind that 7% rates would destroy this low-end market recovery we have seen which would send prices even lower IMHO.

[pemeliza]

“My theory is that rates will be low for the next 3-6 months and then inflation will take its toll and we will never be below 7% again – and likely spend many years in 9-10 range.”

I have been studying this situation closely for the last 12 months (so I’m far from an expert) but I don’t think we will see interest rates in the 7% range for at least 5-10 years. At least.

It is unlikely we will see much inflation (most think we are in deflation) for the next 5 years. Even if we do see inflation, the government is going to be very very slow to act on it.

I think the one thing we can count on during this debacle is low interest rates.

Also keep in mind that 7% rates would destroy this low-end market recovery we have seen which would send prices even lower IMHO.

[pemeliza]

“My theory is that rates will be low for the next 3-6 months and then inflation will take its toll and we will never be below 7% again – and likely spend many years in 9-10 range.”

I have been studying this situation closely for the last 12 months (so I’m far from an expert) but I don’t think we will see interest rates in the 7% range for at least 5-10 years. At least.

It is unlikely we will see much inflation (most think we are in deflation) for the next 5 years. Even if we do see inflation, the government is going to be very very slow to act on it.

I think the one thing we can count on during this debacle is low interest rates.

Also keep in mind that 7% rates would destroy this low-end market recovery we have seen which would send prices even lower IMHO.

[NotCranky]

“Just thought I’d post to see if there was someone out there willing to knock some sense in to me.”

I think the extremely strong reactions against buying are mostly a thing of the past. For much of the housing market, potential losses are seriously diminished.The next 30% on lower priced houses won’t wipe out quite so much a the first!This is partially a joke not a prediction.

The warnings are still there, but the energy isn’t. Most concern is for higher priced houses. People who can afford higher priced houses may or may not need to have some sense knocked into them but it is isn’t custom to give the big dogs any guff. Remember raptorduck?

I tend to think some 300k- 600k areas still have a lot of losses to come, but apparently worry over that has diminished too …at least in pigg land. It wouldn’t be polite to go on about it when so many in the group are buying.

In my opinion some of the more bearish people here are starting to sound like broken records in the background,instead of a full chorus … right or wrong.

[NotCranky]

“Just thought I’d post to see if there was someone out there willing to knock some sense in to me.”

I think the extremely strong reactions against buying are mostly a thing of the past. For much of the housing market, potential losses are seriously diminished.The next 30% on lower priced houses won’t wipe out quite so much a the first!This is partially a joke not a prediction.

The warnings are still there, but the energy isn’t. Most concern is for higher priced houses. People who can afford higher priced houses may or may not need to have some sense knocked into them but it is isn’t custom to give the big dogs any guff. Remember raptorduck?

I tend to think some 300k- 600k areas still have a lot of losses to come, but apparently worry over that has diminished too …at least in pigg land. It wouldn’t be polite to go on about it when so many in the group are buying.

In my opinion some of the more bearish people here are starting to sound like broken records in the background,instead of a full chorus … right or wrong.

[NotCranky]

“Just thought I’d post to see if there was someone out there willing to knock some sense in to me.”

I think the extremely strong reactions against buying are mostly a thing of the past. For much of the housing market, potential losses are seriously diminished.The next 30% on lower priced houses won’t wipe out quite so much a the first!This is partially a joke not a prediction.

The warnings are still there, but the energy isn’t. Most concern is for higher priced houses. People who can afford higher priced houses may or may not need to have some sense knocked into them but it is isn’t custom to give the big dogs any guff. Remember raptorduck?

I tend to think some 300k- 600k areas still have a lot of losses to come, but apparently worry over that has diminished too …at least in pigg land. It wouldn’t be polite to go on about it when so many in the group are buying.

In my opinion some of the more bearish people here are starting to sound like broken records in the background,instead of a full chorus … right or wrong.

[NotCranky]

“Just thought I’d post to see if there was someone out there willing to knock some sense in to me.”

I think the extremely strong reactions against buying are mostly a thing of the past. For much of the housing market, potential losses are seriously diminished.The next 30% on lower priced houses won’t wipe out quite so much a the first!This is partially a joke not a prediction.

The warnings are still there, but the energy isn’t. Most concern is for higher priced houses. People who can afford higher priced houses may or may not need to have some sense knocked into them but it is isn’t custom to give the big dogs any guff. Remember raptorduck?

I tend to think some 300k- 600k areas still have a lot of losses to come, but apparently worry over that has diminished too …at least in pigg land. It wouldn’t be polite to go on about it when so many in the group are buying.

In my opinion some of the more bearish people here are starting to sound like broken records in the background,instead of a full chorus … right or wrong.

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