Thinking about jumping in….

[davelj]

[quote=Mark Holmes]It’s just amazing to me that anyone who is somewhat informed would be calling a bottom now. It would fly in the face of all statistical, historical and common sense evidence. The real estate boom that just ended, the biggest in San Diego history, will be followed by a bust of commensurate size and duration. Every boom was and is followed by one.

An 85-year-old, wealthy, lifelong San Diegan told me at the peak of the market that the time to buy would be when everyone knows it is a terrible time to buy.

My guess is that sentiment is still 2-4 years away.

But good luck to all buyers…[/quote]

I don’t see anyone calling a bottom here. It’s just that sometimes the last 10%-20% isn’t worth waiting for if there are non-financial considerations and the price available today isn’t eggregious.

[NotCranky]

I agree with Peter and Mark regarding timing the bottom. I also agree that everyone is different. I more or less timed quitting my job, which I hated, with closing the purchase of my second house. It made sense at the time and worked out well. I’m not telling anyone to buy . This is more relevant if you can buy a house with added security of a likely bottom.My housing cost have been incredibly low for all my life in part because of this decision. I also locked in a price that was likely to benefit from appreciation and it did. Food for thought.

I guess nobody can speak with absolute authority about how easy it is or isn’t to time the “bottom”. I do think that when buying a house seems like a “no-brainer” that will be pretty near. I would not say buying a house right now is a no-brainer by any realistic stretch but I imagine most of those who are buying are not going to get viscerated competely by the knife.

[NotCranky]

I agree with Peter and Mark regarding timing the bottom. I also agree that everyone is different. I more or less timed quitting my job, which I hated, with closing the purchase of my second house. It made sense at the time and worked out well. I’m not telling anyone to buy . This is more relevant if you can buy a house with added security of a likely bottom.My housing cost have been incredibly low for all my life in part because of this decision. I also locked in a price that was likely to benefit from appreciation and it did. Food for thought.

I guess nobody can speak with absolute authority about how easy it is or isn’t to time the “bottom”. I do think that when buying a house seems like a “no-brainer” that will be pretty near. I would not say buying a house right now is a no-brainer by any realistic stretch but I imagine most of those who are buying are not going to get viscerated competely by the knife.

[NotCranky]

I agree with Peter and Mark regarding timing the bottom. I also agree that everyone is different. I more or less timed quitting my job, which I hated, with closing the purchase of my second house. It made sense at the time and worked out well. I’m not telling anyone to buy . This is more relevant if you can buy a house with added security of a likely bottom.My housing cost have been incredibly low for all my life in part because of this decision. I also locked in a price that was likely to benefit from appreciation and it did. Food for thought.

I guess nobody can speak with absolute authority about how easy it is or isn’t to time the “bottom”. I do think that when buying a house seems like a “no-brainer” that will be pretty near. I would not say buying a house right now is a no-brainer by any realistic stretch but I imagine most of those who are buying are not going to get viscerated competely by the knife.

[NotCranky]

I agree with Peter and Mark regarding timing the bottom. I also agree that everyone is different. I more or less timed quitting my job, which I hated, with closing the purchase of my second house. It made sense at the time and worked out well. I’m not telling anyone to buy . This is more relevant if you can buy a house with added security of a likely bottom.My housing cost have been incredibly low for all my life in part because of this decision. I also locked in a price that was likely to benefit from appreciation and it did. Food for thought.

I guess nobody can speak with absolute authority about how easy it is or isn’t to time the “bottom”. I do think that when buying a house seems like a “no-brainer” that will be pretty near. I would not say buying a house right now is a no-brainer by any realistic stretch but I imagine most of those who are buying are not going to get viscerated competely by the knife.

[NotCranky]

I agree with Peter and Mark regarding timing the bottom. I also agree that everyone is different. I more or less timed quitting my job, which I hated, with closing the purchase of my second house. It made sense at the time and worked out well. I’m not telling anyone to buy . This is more relevant if you can buy a house with added security of a likely bottom.My housing cost have been incredibly low for all my life in part because of this decision. I also locked in a price that was likely to benefit from appreciation and it did. Food for thought.

I guess nobody can speak with absolute authority about how easy it is or isn’t to time the “bottom”. I do think that when buying a house seems like a “no-brainer” that will be pretty near. I would not say buying a house right now is a no-brainer by any realistic stretch but I imagine most of those who are buying are not going to get viscerated competely by the knife.

[Mark Holmes]

[quote=davelj][quote=Mark Holmes]It’s just amazing to me that anyone who is somewhat informed would be calling a bottom now. It would fly in the face of all statistical, historical and common sense evidence. The real estate boom that just ended, the biggest in San Diego history, will be followed by a bust of commensurate size and duration. Every boom was and is followed by one.

An 85-year-old, wealthy, lifelong San Diegan told me at the peak of the market that the time to buy would be when everyone knows it is a terrible time to buy.

My guess is that sentiment is still 2-4 years away.

But good luck to all buyers…[/quote]

I don’t see anyone calling a bottom here. It’s just that sometimes the last 10%-20% isn’t worth waiting for if there are non-financial considerations and the price available today isn’t eggregious.[/quote]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[Mark Holmes]

[quote=davelj][quote=Mark Holmes]It’s just amazing to me that anyone who is somewhat informed would be calling a bottom now. It would fly in the face of all statistical, historical and common sense evidence. The real estate boom that just ended, the biggest in San Diego history, will be followed by a bust of commensurate size and duration. Every boom was and is followed by one.

An 85-year-old, wealthy, lifelong San Diegan told me at the peak of the market that the time to buy would be when everyone knows it is a terrible time to buy.

My guess is that sentiment is still 2-4 years away.

But good luck to all buyers…[/quote]

I don’t see anyone calling a bottom here. It’s just that sometimes the last 10%-20% isn’t worth waiting for if there are non-financial considerations and the price available today isn’t eggregious.[/quote]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[Mark Holmes]

[quote=davelj][quote=Mark Holmes]It’s just amazing to me that anyone who is somewhat informed would be calling a bottom now. It would fly in the face of all statistical, historical and common sense evidence. The real estate boom that just ended, the biggest in San Diego history, will be followed by a bust of commensurate size and duration. Every boom was and is followed by one.

An 85-year-old, wealthy, lifelong San Diegan told me at the peak of the market that the time to buy would be when everyone knows it is a terrible time to buy.

My guess is that sentiment is still 2-4 years away.

But good luck to all buyers…[/quote]

I don’t see anyone calling a bottom here. It’s just that sometimes the last 10%-20% isn’t worth waiting for if there are non-financial considerations and the price available today isn’t eggregious.[/quote]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[Mark Holmes]

[quote=davelj][quote=Mark Holmes]It’s just amazing to me that anyone who is somewhat informed would be calling a bottom now. It would fly in the face of all statistical, historical and common sense evidence. The real estate boom that just ended, the biggest in San Diego history, will be followed by a bust of commensurate size and duration. Every boom was and is followed by one.

An 85-year-old, wealthy, lifelong San Diegan told me at the peak of the market that the time to buy would be when everyone knows it is a terrible time to buy.

My guess is that sentiment is still 2-4 years away.

But good luck to all buyers…[/quote]

I don’t see anyone calling a bottom here. It’s just that sometimes the last 10%-20% isn’t worth waiting for if there are non-financial considerations and the price available today isn’t eggregious.[/quote]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[Mark Holmes]

[quote=davelj][quote=Mark Holmes]It’s just amazing to me that anyone who is somewhat informed would be calling a bottom now. It would fly in the face of all statistical, historical and common sense evidence. The real estate boom that just ended, the biggest in San Diego history, will be followed by a bust of commensurate size and duration. Every boom was and is followed by one.

An 85-year-old, wealthy, lifelong San Diegan told me at the peak of the market that the time to buy would be when everyone knows it is a terrible time to buy.

My guess is that sentiment is still 2-4 years away.

But good luck to all buyers…[/quote]

I don’t see anyone calling a bottom here. It’s just that sometimes the last 10%-20% isn’t worth waiting for if there are non-financial considerations and the price available today isn’t eggregious.[/quote]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[davelj]

[quote=Mark Holmes]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[/quote]

Anything is possible. But the probabilities for various scenarios vary significantly. A 20% decline from here isn’t a stretch. A 30%-50% decline is a bit of a stretch, based on where prices would be relative to rents and income (even assuming some measure of decline in both). Doesn’t mean it can’t happen – anything is possible, after all – just means it’s unlikely. Also, more importantly (and more relevant to this thread), I’m guessing the folks here aren’t buying “average deals” – they’re looking for “bargains,” and today’s bargains (all relative, of course) will fall less than the median. Hell, even OCRenter (“renting sucks”) is buying. It doesn’t mean he’s right; just means a lot of the risk has been taken out of the equation if you do your homework.

[davelj]

[quote=Mark Holmes]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[/quote]

Anything is possible. But the probabilities for various scenarios vary significantly. A 20% decline from here isn’t a stretch. A 30%-50% decline is a bit of a stretch, based on where prices would be relative to rents and income (even assuming some measure of decline in both). Doesn’t mean it can’t happen – anything is possible, after all – just means it’s unlikely. Also, more importantly (and more relevant to this thread), I’m guessing the folks here aren’t buying “average deals” – they’re looking for “bargains,” and today’s bargains (all relative, of course) will fall less than the median. Hell, even OCRenter (“renting sucks”) is buying. It doesn’t mean he’s right; just means a lot of the risk has been taken out of the equation if you do your homework.

[davelj]

[quote=Mark Holmes]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[/quote]

Anything is possible. But the probabilities for various scenarios vary significantly. A 20% decline from here isn’t a stretch. A 30%-50% decline is a bit of a stretch, based on where prices would be relative to rents and income (even assuming some measure of decline in both). Doesn’t mean it can’t happen – anything is possible, after all – just means it’s unlikely. Also, more importantly (and more relevant to this thread), I’m guessing the folks here aren’t buying “average deals” – they’re looking for “bargains,” and today’s bargains (all relative, of course) will fall less than the median. Hell, even OCRenter (“renting sucks”) is buying. It doesn’t mean he’s right; just means a lot of the risk has been taken out of the equation if you do your homework.

[davelj]

[quote=Mark Holmes]

Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…

[/quote]

Anything is possible. But the probabilities for various scenarios vary significantly. A 20% decline from here isn’t a stretch. A 30%-50% decline is a bit of a stretch, based on where prices would be relative to rents and income (even assuming some measure of decline in both). Doesn’t mean it can’t happen – anything is possible, after all – just means it’s unlikely. Also, more importantly (and more relevant to this thread), I’m guessing the folks here aren’t buying “average deals” – they’re looking for “bargains,” and today’s bargains (all relative, of course) will fall less than the median. Hell, even OCRenter (“renting sucks”) is buying. It doesn’t mean he’s right; just means a lot of the risk has been taken out of the equation if you do your homework.

[Author]

Posts