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sdrealtor.
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January 8, 2011 at 8:36 AM #650265January 8, 2011 at 9:47 AM #649167
pemeliza
Participant“What is stopping them is fear of further declines.”
Yes, and right now I can’t say that I blame them. Nothing in this current market is giving me the impression that we are at a turning point in psychology.
Here is a specific example in Mt Helix which is a pretty decent family area that has recently been pounded. This looks like a very good deal well below recent sales and it is sitting.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100069201-10021_Resmar_Ct_La_Mesa_CA_91941
Basically, the seller bought the house 20 years ago and will be lucky to break even after commissions. Two lost decades and that is after the government took over the mortgage market and spent trillions buying down mortgage rates to historic lows.
January 8, 2011 at 9:47 AM #649238Participant“What is stopping them is fear of further declines.”
Yes, and right now I can’t say that I blame them. Nothing in this current market is giving me the impression that we are at a turning point in psychology.
Here is a specific example in Mt Helix which is a pretty decent family area that has recently been pounded. This looks like a very good deal well below recent sales and it is sitting.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100069201-10021_Resmar_Ct_La_Mesa_CA_91941
Basically, the seller bought the house 20 years ago and will be lucky to break even after commissions. Two lost decades and that is after the government took over the mortgage market and spent trillions buying down mortgage rates to historic lows.
January 8, 2011 at 9:47 AM #649824Participant“What is stopping them is fear of further declines.”
Yes, and right now I can’t say that I blame them. Nothing in this current market is giving me the impression that we are at a turning point in psychology.
Here is a specific example in Mt Helix which is a pretty decent family area that has recently been pounded. This looks like a very good deal well below recent sales and it is sitting.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100069201-10021_Resmar_Ct_La_Mesa_CA_91941
Basically, the seller bought the house 20 years ago and will be lucky to break even after commissions. Two lost decades and that is after the government took over the mortgage market and spent trillions buying down mortgage rates to historic lows.
January 8, 2011 at 9:47 AM #649960Participant“What is stopping them is fear of further declines.”
Yes, and right now I can’t say that I blame them. Nothing in this current market is giving me the impression that we are at a turning point in psychology.
Here is a specific example in Mt Helix which is a pretty decent family area that has recently been pounded. This looks like a very good deal well below recent sales and it is sitting.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100069201-10021_Resmar_Ct_La_Mesa_CA_91941
Basically, the seller bought the house 20 years ago and will be lucky to break even after commissions. Two lost decades and that is after the government took over the mortgage market and spent trillions buying down mortgage rates to historic lows.
January 8, 2011 at 9:47 AM #650285Participant“What is stopping them is fear of further declines.”
Yes, and right now I can’t say that I blame them. Nothing in this current market is giving me the impression that we are at a turning point in psychology.
Here is a specific example in Mt Helix which is a pretty decent family area that has recently been pounded. This looks like a very good deal well below recent sales and it is sitting.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100069201-10021_Resmar_Ct_La_Mesa_CA_91941
Basically, the seller bought the house 20 years ago and will be lucky to break even after commissions. Two lost decades and that is after the government took over the mortgage market and spent trillions buying down mortgage rates to historic lows.
January 8, 2011 at 1:46 PM #649307sdrealtor
ParticipantGreat example. Ask any bubblesitters still out there and they will tell you 3% annual appreciation from 1990 pricing is too high.
BTW there are 6 houses on Resmar Ct/Pl/Rd sitting unsold. That speaks to desireability of the location so apparently those prices are still too high
January 8, 2011 at 1:46 PM #649378ParticipantGreat example. Ask any bubblesitters still out there and they will tell you 3% annual appreciation from 1990 pricing is too high.
BTW there are 6 houses on Resmar Ct/Pl/Rd sitting unsold. That speaks to desireability of the location so apparently those prices are still too high
January 8, 2011 at 1:46 PM #649964ParticipantGreat example. Ask any bubblesitters still out there and they will tell you 3% annual appreciation from 1990 pricing is too high.
BTW there are 6 houses on Resmar Ct/Pl/Rd sitting unsold. That speaks to desireability of the location so apparently those prices are still too high
January 8, 2011 at 1:46 PM #650100ParticipantGreat example. Ask any bubblesitters still out there and they will tell you 3% annual appreciation from 1990 pricing is too high.
BTW there are 6 houses on Resmar Ct/Pl/Rd sitting unsold. That speaks to desireability of the location so apparently those prices are still too high
January 8, 2011 at 1:46 PM #650425ParticipantGreat example. Ask any bubblesitters still out there and they will tell you 3% annual appreciation from 1990 pricing is too high.
BTW there are 6 houses on Resmar Ct/Pl/Rd sitting unsold. That speaks to desireability of the location so apparently those prices are still too high
January 8, 2011 at 4:19 PM #649387CA renter
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]From what I see on the ground things are pretty hunky-dory price vs income. The disconnect comes in the psychology. Most people I see can afford to buy at todays interest rates and prices in neighborhoods that are in the range of acceptability/desireability to them. What is stopping them is fear of futher declines. So they continue looking for the perfect house at a giveaway price and buy only under those circumstances. CAR wouldnt you agree that pretty much describes your current situation?[/quote]
The fear of prices falling further is certainly part of the reason we’re sitting on the sidelines. The fear of falling prices is perfectly rational, considering the following:
1. The government apparently doesn’t believe that prices have bottomed; if they did, they wouldn’t be pushing hundreds of billions of dollars (actually, trillions) into the credit market. They also wouldn’t be continuing their “foreclosure moratoriums” whether by direct intervention or “robo-signing” holds. They wouldn’t be propping up banks and allowing/encouraging them to keep houses off the market, if they thought prices have bottomed.
2. Banks and investors of all stripes would be back in the mortgage market if they thought the collateral was fairly valued, and if they thought interest rates were going to stay low. As it stands, the mortgage market is almost 100% govt-backed.
So…if the government doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, and if the private mortgage market doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, why should buyers think prices have bottomed?
Additionally, I’m expecting large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector. The “financial elite” have been quite successful in distracting and duping the sheeple into believing that the “finanical crisis” was somehow caused by unions. If we see large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector, that will begin a new wave of deflation and defaults.
Other than for emotional or family reasons, why in the world would anyone want to buy now, especially in areas that weren’t allowed to fall, yet?
January 8, 2011 at 4:19 PM #649457Participant[quote=sdrealtor]From what I see on the ground things are pretty hunky-dory price vs income. The disconnect comes in the psychology. Most people I see can afford to buy at todays interest rates and prices in neighborhoods that are in the range of acceptability/desireability to them. What is stopping them is fear of futher declines. So they continue looking for the perfect house at a giveaway price and buy only under those circumstances. CAR wouldnt you agree that pretty much describes your current situation?[/quote]
The fear of prices falling further is certainly part of the reason we’re sitting on the sidelines. The fear of falling prices is perfectly rational, considering the following:
1. The government apparently doesn’t believe that prices have bottomed; if they did, they wouldn’t be pushing hundreds of billions of dollars (actually, trillions) into the credit market. They also wouldn’t be continuing their “foreclosure moratoriums” whether by direct intervention or “robo-signing” holds. They wouldn’t be propping up banks and allowing/encouraging them to keep houses off the market, if they thought prices have bottomed.
2. Banks and investors of all stripes would be back in the mortgage market if they thought the collateral was fairly valued, and if they thought interest rates were going to stay low. As it stands, the mortgage market is almost 100% govt-backed.
So…if the government doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, and if the private mortgage market doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, why should buyers think prices have bottomed?
Additionally, I’m expecting large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector. The “financial elite” have been quite successful in distracting and duping the sheeple into believing that the “finanical crisis” was somehow caused by unions. If we see large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector, that will begin a new wave of deflation and defaults.
Other than for emotional or family reasons, why in the world would anyone want to buy now, especially in areas that weren’t allowed to fall, yet?
January 8, 2011 at 4:19 PM #650044Participant[quote=sdrealtor]From what I see on the ground things are pretty hunky-dory price vs income. The disconnect comes in the psychology. Most people I see can afford to buy at todays interest rates and prices in neighborhoods that are in the range of acceptability/desireability to them. What is stopping them is fear of futher declines. So they continue looking for the perfect house at a giveaway price and buy only under those circumstances. CAR wouldnt you agree that pretty much describes your current situation?[/quote]
The fear of prices falling further is certainly part of the reason we’re sitting on the sidelines. The fear of falling prices is perfectly rational, considering the following:
1. The government apparently doesn’t believe that prices have bottomed; if they did, they wouldn’t be pushing hundreds of billions of dollars (actually, trillions) into the credit market. They also wouldn’t be continuing their “foreclosure moratoriums” whether by direct intervention or “robo-signing” holds. They wouldn’t be propping up banks and allowing/encouraging them to keep houses off the market, if they thought prices have bottomed.
2. Banks and investors of all stripes would be back in the mortgage market if they thought the collateral was fairly valued, and if they thought interest rates were going to stay low. As it stands, the mortgage market is almost 100% govt-backed.
So…if the government doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, and if the private mortgage market doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, why should buyers think prices have bottomed?
Additionally, I’m expecting large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector. The “financial elite” have been quite successful in distracting and duping the sheeple into believing that the “finanical crisis” was somehow caused by unions. If we see large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector, that will begin a new wave of deflation and defaults.
Other than for emotional or family reasons, why in the world would anyone want to buy now, especially in areas that weren’t allowed to fall, yet?
January 8, 2011 at 4:19 PM #650180Participant[quote=sdrealtor]From what I see on the ground things are pretty hunky-dory price vs income. The disconnect comes in the psychology. Most people I see can afford to buy at todays interest rates and prices in neighborhoods that are in the range of acceptability/desireability to them. What is stopping them is fear of futher declines. So they continue looking for the perfect house at a giveaway price and buy only under those circumstances. CAR wouldnt you agree that pretty much describes your current situation?[/quote]
The fear of prices falling further is certainly part of the reason we’re sitting on the sidelines. The fear of falling prices is perfectly rational, considering the following:
1. The government apparently doesn’t believe that prices have bottomed; if they did, they wouldn’t be pushing hundreds of billions of dollars (actually, trillions) into the credit market. They also wouldn’t be continuing their “foreclosure moratoriums” whether by direct intervention or “robo-signing” holds. They wouldn’t be propping up banks and allowing/encouraging them to keep houses off the market, if they thought prices have bottomed.
2. Banks and investors of all stripes would be back in the mortgage market if they thought the collateral was fairly valued, and if they thought interest rates were going to stay low. As it stands, the mortgage market is almost 100% govt-backed.
So…if the government doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, and if the private mortgage market doesn’t believe prices have bottomed, why should buyers think prices have bottomed?
Additionally, I’m expecting large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector. The “financial elite” have been quite successful in distracting and duping the sheeple into believing that the “finanical crisis” was somehow caused by unions. If we see large pay and benefit cuts in the public sector, that will begin a new wave of deflation and defaults.
Other than for emotional or family reasons, why in the world would anyone want to buy now, especially in areas that weren’t allowed to fall, yet?
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