SD Reader: San Diego Economy Still Staggering

[CA renter]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I would be very surprised if we ever hit the peak in INCOME-adjusted terms again. Just think how ridiculously expensive homes got compared to incomes, and what it took (lending wise) to get them there… why would that happen again?

Inflation adjusted is a little different since incomes can rise faster than inflation. But still. That’s a long way off, if ever.

I certainly don’t consider it “pessimistic” to say that we will never hit the inflation adjusted high. That was a terrible affair, in which homes were totally unaffordable and people had to take on huge debt just to buy a place to live. It seemed fun because people were profiting off the rise from expensive to really expensive… but hugely expensive housing is certainly not a desirable outcome.[/quote]

So very well said, Rich. Thank you.

[Eugene]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Eugene, I think what those charts were referring to by “prescriptive land regulation” was that the most “regulated city in the US,” for example, was San Francisco, CA (and in order of “regulation” on down). In other words, the areas with the most “prescriptive land regulation” were those areas with strict zoning laws and the most city ordinances and land-use regulations to navigate (in order to build/remodel).[/quote]

Yes, I think that that’s what they intended to show. But prescriptive land regulation and limited land go hand in hand. San Francisco has both. Nashville has neither.

[Eugene]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Eugene, I think what those charts were referring to by “prescriptive land regulation” was that the most “regulated city in the US,” for example, was San Francisco, CA (and in order of “regulation” on down). In other words, the areas with the most “prescriptive land regulation” were those areas with strict zoning laws and the most city ordinances and land-use regulations to navigate (in order to build/remodel).[/quote]

Yes, I think that that’s what they intended to show. But prescriptive land regulation and limited land go hand in hand. San Francisco has both. Nashville has neither.

[Eugene]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Eugene, I think what those charts were referring to by “prescriptive land regulation” was that the most “regulated city in the US,” for example, was San Francisco, CA (and in order of “regulation” on down). In other words, the areas with the most “prescriptive land regulation” were those areas with strict zoning laws and the most city ordinances and land-use regulations to navigate (in order to build/remodel).[/quote]

Yes, I think that that’s what they intended to show. But prescriptive land regulation and limited land go hand in hand. San Francisco has both. Nashville has neither.

[Eugene]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Eugene, I think what those charts were referring to by “prescriptive land regulation” was that the most “regulated city in the US,” for example, was San Francisco, CA (and in order of “regulation” on down). In other words, the areas with the most “prescriptive land regulation” were those areas with strict zoning laws and the most city ordinances and land-use regulations to navigate (in order to build/remodel).[/quote]

Yes, I think that that’s what they intended to show. But prescriptive land regulation and limited land go hand in hand. San Francisco has both. Nashville has neither.

[Eugene]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Eugene, I think what those charts were referring to by “prescriptive land regulation” was that the most “regulated city in the US,” for example, was San Francisco, CA (and in order of “regulation” on down). In other words, the areas with the most “prescriptive land regulation” were those areas with strict zoning laws and the most city ordinances and land-use regulations to navigate (in order to build/remodel).[/quote]

Yes, I think that that’s what they intended to show. But prescriptive land regulation and limited land go hand in hand. San Francisco has both. Nashville has neither.

[Eugene]

This discussion made me wonder, what IS the real median multiple in San Diego? And it’s not an easy question to answer, because, between apartment complexes, student housing, and military housing, a lot of low-end inventory is essentially out of the regular real estate market, and any attempts to look at MLS at the face value will inevitably result in skewed results.

But I made some educated guesses, cooked up a model, pulled in some census data, and voila, the true state of San Diego RE, as of January 2011:

[img_assist|nid=14433|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=52]

and now just detached:

[img_assist|nid=14434|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

In this model, the true median home price is $270,000, and the true median multiple is 4.5.

[Eugene]

This discussion made me wonder, what IS the real median multiple in San Diego? And it’s not an easy question to answer, because, between apartment complexes, student housing, and military housing, a lot of low-end inventory is essentially out of the regular real estate market, and any attempts to look at MLS at the face value will inevitably result in skewed results.

But I made some educated guesses, cooked up a model, pulled in some census data, and voila, the true state of San Diego RE, as of January 2011:

[img_assist|nid=14433|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=52]

and now just detached:

[img_assist|nid=14434|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

In this model, the true median home price is $270,000, and the true median multiple is 4.5.

[Eugene]

This discussion made me wonder, what IS the real median multiple in San Diego? And it’s not an easy question to answer, because, between apartment complexes, student housing, and military housing, a lot of low-end inventory is essentially out of the regular real estate market, and any attempts to look at MLS at the face value will inevitably result in skewed results.

But I made some educated guesses, cooked up a model, pulled in some census data, and voila, the true state of San Diego RE, as of January 2011:

[img_assist|nid=14433|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=52]

and now just detached:

[img_assist|nid=14434|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

In this model, the true median home price is $270,000, and the true median multiple is 4.5.

[Eugene]

This discussion made me wonder, what IS the real median multiple in San Diego? And it’s not an easy question to answer, because, between apartment complexes, student housing, and military housing, a lot of low-end inventory is essentially out of the regular real estate market, and any attempts to look at MLS at the face value will inevitably result in skewed results.

But I made some educated guesses, cooked up a model, pulled in some census data, and voila, the true state of San Diego RE, as of January 2011:

[img_assist|nid=14433|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=52]

and now just detached:

[img_assist|nid=14434|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

In this model, the true median home price is $270,000, and the true median multiple is 4.5.

[Eugene]

This discussion made me wonder, what IS the real median multiple in San Diego? And it’s not an easy question to answer, because, between apartment complexes, student housing, and military housing, a lot of low-end inventory is essentially out of the regular real estate market, and any attempts to look at MLS at the face value will inevitably result in skewed results.

But I made some educated guesses, cooked up a model, pulled in some census data, and voila, the true state of San Diego RE, as of January 2011:

[img_assist|nid=14433|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=52]

and now just detached:

[img_assist|nid=14434|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

In this model, the true median home price is $270,000, and the true median multiple is 4.5.

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr

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