SD Reader: San Diego Economy Still Staggering

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr

[moneymaker]

Eugene it looks to me like you averaged the peaks. I think there is more area under the right half of the peak, I would think the average is closer to $350k-$400k. The definition of income and tracking it is also pretty hard to comprehend. According to the IRS lottery winnings are income and capital gains are not taxed as regular income, even though you work for the latter and not the former. I am always amazed when I hear “average household income is ??k”. I suspect it is actually higher than measured as a lot of income does not seem to get measured. Gross income and net income for me differ by a factor of 2 so that obviously makes a big difference when stating such ratios.

[moneymaker]

Eugene it looks to me like you averaged the peaks. I think there is more area under the right half of the peak, I would think the average is closer to $350k-$400k. The definition of income and tracking it is also pretty hard to comprehend. According to the IRS lottery winnings are income and capital gains are not taxed as regular income, even though you work for the latter and not the former. I am always amazed when I hear “average household income is ??k”. I suspect it is actually higher than measured as a lot of income does not seem to get measured. Gross income and net income for me differ by a factor of 2 so that obviously makes a big difference when stating such ratios.

[moneymaker]

Eugene it looks to me like you averaged the peaks. I think there is more area under the right half of the peak, I would think the average is closer to $350k-$400k. The definition of income and tracking it is also pretty hard to comprehend. According to the IRS lottery winnings are income and capital gains are not taxed as regular income, even though you work for the latter and not the former. I am always amazed when I hear “average household income is ??k”. I suspect it is actually higher than measured as a lot of income does not seem to get measured. Gross income and net income for me differ by a factor of 2 so that obviously makes a big difference when stating such ratios.

[moneymaker]

Eugene it looks to me like you averaged the peaks. I think there is more area under the right half of the peak, I would think the average is closer to $350k-$400k. The definition of income and tracking it is also pretty hard to comprehend. According to the IRS lottery winnings are income and capital gains are not taxed as regular income, even though you work for the latter and not the former. I am always amazed when I hear “average household income is ??k”. I suspect it is actually higher than measured as a lot of income does not seem to get measured. Gross income and net income for me differ by a factor of 2 so that obviously makes a big difference when stating such ratios.

[moneymaker]

Eugene it looks to me like you averaged the peaks. I think there is more area under the right half of the peak, I would think the average is closer to $350k-$400k. The definition of income and tracking it is also pretty hard to comprehend. According to the IRS lottery winnings are income and capital gains are not taxed as regular income, even though you work for the latter and not the former. I am always amazed when I hear “average household income is ??k”. I suspect it is actually higher than measured as a lot of income does not seem to get measured. Gross income and net income for me differ by a factor of 2 so that obviously makes a big difference when stating such ratios.

[Eugene]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr[/quote]

Here’s how it basically went.

We have these general classes of housing units (1-bedroom attached, 2-bedroom attached, …) Census gives us relative numbers of those in the city. 1-bedrooms and studios are supposed to account for 18% of all units, and 2-bedrooms account for another 30%.

But if we look at actual recorded sales over, say, the last month, the structure is different, for example, only 6% of all sales were studios and 1-bedrooms. Why? As I said above, many 1-bedrooms are apartment complexes, university housing, etc, and they are never sold on MLS.

So I just took sales prices and volumes for each category over the last month, modeled each category with a lognormal distribution, and rescaled volumes to get correct total numbers of units.

It looks like as many as 75% of all studios and 1-bedrooms and 40% of attached 2-bedrooms do not participate in the market (they can be rented, but they can’t be purchased).

[Eugene]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr[/quote]

Here’s how it basically went.

We have these general classes of housing units (1-bedroom attached, 2-bedroom attached, …) Census gives us relative numbers of those in the city. 1-bedrooms and studios are supposed to account for 18% of all units, and 2-bedrooms account for another 30%.

But if we look at actual recorded sales over, say, the last month, the structure is different, for example, only 6% of all sales were studios and 1-bedrooms. Why? As I said above, many 1-bedrooms are apartment complexes, university housing, etc, and they are never sold on MLS.

So I just took sales prices and volumes for each category over the last month, modeled each category with a lognormal distribution, and rescaled volumes to get correct total numbers of units.

It looks like as many as 75% of all studios and 1-bedrooms and 40% of attached 2-bedrooms do not participate in the market (they can be rented, but they can’t be purchased).

[Eugene]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr[/quote]

Here’s how it basically went.

We have these general classes of housing units (1-bedroom attached, 2-bedroom attached, …) Census gives us relative numbers of those in the city. 1-bedrooms and studios are supposed to account for 18% of all units, and 2-bedrooms account for another 30%.

But if we look at actual recorded sales over, say, the last month, the structure is different, for example, only 6% of all sales were studios and 1-bedrooms. Why? As I said above, many 1-bedrooms are apartment complexes, university housing, etc, and they are never sold on MLS.

So I just took sales prices and volumes for each category over the last month, modeled each category with a lognormal distribution, and rescaled volumes to get correct total numbers of units.

It looks like as many as 75% of all studios and 1-bedrooms and 40% of attached 2-bedrooms do not participate in the market (they can be rented, but they can’t be purchased).

[Eugene]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr[/quote]

Here’s how it basically went.

We have these general classes of housing units (1-bedroom attached, 2-bedroom attached, …) Census gives us relative numbers of those in the city. 1-bedrooms and studios are supposed to account for 18% of all units, and 2-bedrooms account for another 30%.

But if we look at actual recorded sales over, say, the last month, the structure is different, for example, only 6% of all sales were studios and 1-bedrooms. Why? As I said above, many 1-bedrooms are apartment complexes, university housing, etc, and they are never sold on MLS.

So I just took sales prices and volumes for each category over the last month, modeled each category with a lognormal distribution, and rescaled volumes to get correct total numbers of units.

It looks like as many as 75% of all studios and 1-bedrooms and 40% of attached 2-bedrooms do not participate in the market (they can be rented, but they can’t be purchased).

[Eugene]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eugene
I would love to hear more about how you cooked this up and have every confidence you did a reasonably good job. Any chance you could post more about it on your dormant blog?

This is not going to please the permabears whose $500K oceanfront homes rests on you being wrong.

sdr[/quote]

Here’s how it basically went.

We have these general classes of housing units (1-bedroom attached, 2-bedroom attached, …) Census gives us relative numbers of those in the city. 1-bedrooms and studios are supposed to account for 18% of all units, and 2-bedrooms account for another 30%.

But if we look at actual recorded sales over, say, the last month, the structure is different, for example, only 6% of all sales were studios and 1-bedrooms. Why? As I said above, many 1-bedrooms are apartment complexes, university housing, etc, and they are never sold on MLS.

So I just took sales prices and volumes for each category over the last month, modeled each category with a lognormal distribution, and rescaled volumes to get correct total numbers of units.

It looks like as many as 75% of all studios and 1-bedrooms and 40% of attached 2-bedrooms do not participate in the market (they can be rented, but they can’t be purchased).

[no_such_reality]

You also need to back out renters.

That said, the $500K ocean fronts aren’t showing up anytime soon.

[no_such_reality]

You also need to back out renters.

That said, the $500K ocean fronts aren’t showing up anytime soon.

[no_such_reality]

You also need to back out renters.

That said, the $500K ocean fronts aren’t showing up anytime soon.

[no_such_reality]

You also need to back out renters.

That said, the $500K ocean fronts aren’t showing up anytime soon.

[Author]

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