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January 9, 2011 at 8:41 AM #650846January 9, 2011 at 9:41 AM #649838anParticipant
As I pointed out in another thread, there are more high income earner in NCC today than 10 years ago. Here are the numbers again specifically for Encinitas and Carlsbad:
Carlsbad:
>$150k: 3,753 (year 2000), 5720 (year 2009)
>$100k: 8933 (year 2000), 13218 (year 2009)
Encinitas:
>$150k: 3,021 (year 2000), 3355 (year 2009)
>$100k: 6603 (year 2000), 7558 (year 2009)How many new homes have been built in Carlsbad/Encinitas over that period of time? There are 2301 more families making >$150k and 5150 more families making >$100k. Have there been enough new houses to meet this demand?
Median HHI in Carlsbad was $65,854 in 2000 and it’s $101,358 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $72,281. For Encinitas, it was $64,821 in 2000 and it’s $99,043 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $70,630. So yes, income has risen by over 50% over the last 10 years in nominal term.
January 9, 2011 at 9:41 AM #649907anParticipantAs I pointed out in another thread, there are more high income earner in NCC today than 10 years ago. Here are the numbers again specifically for Encinitas and Carlsbad:
Carlsbad:
>$150k: 3,753 (year 2000), 5720 (year 2009)
>$100k: 8933 (year 2000), 13218 (year 2009)
Encinitas:
>$150k: 3,021 (year 2000), 3355 (year 2009)
>$100k: 6603 (year 2000), 7558 (year 2009)How many new homes have been built in Carlsbad/Encinitas over that period of time? There are 2301 more families making >$150k and 5150 more families making >$100k. Have there been enough new houses to meet this demand?
Median HHI in Carlsbad was $65,854 in 2000 and it’s $101,358 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $72,281. For Encinitas, it was $64,821 in 2000 and it’s $99,043 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $70,630. So yes, income has risen by over 50% over the last 10 years in nominal term.
January 9, 2011 at 9:41 AM #650492anParticipantAs I pointed out in another thread, there are more high income earner in NCC today than 10 years ago. Here are the numbers again specifically for Encinitas and Carlsbad:
Carlsbad:
>$150k: 3,753 (year 2000), 5720 (year 2009)
>$100k: 8933 (year 2000), 13218 (year 2009)
Encinitas:
>$150k: 3,021 (year 2000), 3355 (year 2009)
>$100k: 6603 (year 2000), 7558 (year 2009)How many new homes have been built in Carlsbad/Encinitas over that period of time? There are 2301 more families making >$150k and 5150 more families making >$100k. Have there been enough new houses to meet this demand?
Median HHI in Carlsbad was $65,854 in 2000 and it’s $101,358 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $72,281. For Encinitas, it was $64,821 in 2000 and it’s $99,043 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $70,630. So yes, income has risen by over 50% over the last 10 years in nominal term.
January 9, 2011 at 9:41 AM #650628anParticipantAs I pointed out in another thread, there are more high income earner in NCC today than 10 years ago. Here are the numbers again specifically for Encinitas and Carlsbad:
Carlsbad:
>$150k: 3,753 (year 2000), 5720 (year 2009)
>$100k: 8933 (year 2000), 13218 (year 2009)
Encinitas:
>$150k: 3,021 (year 2000), 3355 (year 2009)
>$100k: 6603 (year 2000), 7558 (year 2009)How many new homes have been built in Carlsbad/Encinitas over that period of time? There are 2301 more families making >$150k and 5150 more families making >$100k. Have there been enough new houses to meet this demand?
Median HHI in Carlsbad was $65,854 in 2000 and it’s $101,358 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $72,281. For Encinitas, it was $64,821 in 2000 and it’s $99,043 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $70,630. So yes, income has risen by over 50% over the last 10 years in nominal term.
January 9, 2011 at 9:41 AM #650949anParticipantAs I pointed out in another thread, there are more high income earner in NCC today than 10 years ago. Here are the numbers again specifically for Encinitas and Carlsbad:
Carlsbad:
>$150k: 3,753 (year 2000), 5720 (year 2009)
>$100k: 8933 (year 2000), 13218 (year 2009)
Encinitas:
>$150k: 3,021 (year 2000), 3355 (year 2009)
>$100k: 6603 (year 2000), 7558 (year 2009)How many new homes have been built in Carlsbad/Encinitas over that period of time? There are 2301 more families making >$150k and 5150 more families making >$100k. Have there been enough new houses to meet this demand?
Median HHI in Carlsbad was $65,854 in 2000 and it’s $101,358 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $72,281. For Encinitas, it was $64,821 in 2000 and it’s $99,043 in 2009 not adjusted for inflation. Adjusting for inflation, it’s $70,630. So yes, income has risen by over 50% over the last 10 years in nominal term.
January 9, 2011 at 5:49 PM #650038CA renterParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]But the high end has fallen tremendously in certain areas. Not necessarily NCC SD but other high end areas across the country and in many parts of SD also. Were the policies set up to support NCC high end RE while allowing it to collapse in LV, PHX,FLA and even East County SD? This is utter nonsense you are putting forth.
Its the middle that is holding strongest as it should.
As for your certain circumstances, well everyone has certain circumstances specific to their own situation and many people have certain circumstances that allow them to buy here. The area you are looking has changed dramatically the last two decades and we have covered that ad infnitum in the past so dont try to throw out the old working class families used to be able to buy in Encinitas. The Encinitas of today is very different than the Encinitas of years long past.
Right or wrong, you are fighting a losing battle. The world is as it is and you either adopt an attitude that allows you suceed in it or you sit by and stew. It really is your choice and only yours.[/quote]
Actually, the patterns of price increases and declines happened pretty much the same across the country (and around the world, in many cases). The low end dropped first, because there was no buffer, and the Fed/govt restrained themselves because, “subprime was contained.” The declines began moving into the better areas (and Alt-A and prime mortgages), and then the intervention began in a way we’ve never seen before.
You are too focused on your micro-area, sdr. If you look around, you’ll see the same pattern everywhere. In cities all around the country, the mid/higher-end is levitating above normal, historical ratios when compared to the lower-end areas. The buoyancy of the mid-higher end is completely due to the govt/central bank intervention.
With all due respect, I’ve been here all my life, and have lived through multiple RE cycles in California. I’ll trust my knowledge, experience and frame of historical reference over your optimistic beliefs about real estate. It’s nothing personal, but what you’re saying has been said during every single bubble in California. I’ve seen the carnage in “bullet proof” areas before, and that was during a much better economy.
January 9, 2011 at 5:49 PM #650107CA renterParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]But the high end has fallen tremendously in certain areas. Not necessarily NCC SD but other high end areas across the country and in many parts of SD also. Were the policies set up to support NCC high end RE while allowing it to collapse in LV, PHX,FLA and even East County SD? This is utter nonsense you are putting forth.
Its the middle that is holding strongest as it should.
As for your certain circumstances, well everyone has certain circumstances specific to their own situation and many people have certain circumstances that allow them to buy here. The area you are looking has changed dramatically the last two decades and we have covered that ad infnitum in the past so dont try to throw out the old working class families used to be able to buy in Encinitas. The Encinitas of today is very different than the Encinitas of years long past.
Right or wrong, you are fighting a losing battle. The world is as it is and you either adopt an attitude that allows you suceed in it or you sit by and stew. It really is your choice and only yours.[/quote]
Actually, the patterns of price increases and declines happened pretty much the same across the country (and around the world, in many cases). The low end dropped first, because there was no buffer, and the Fed/govt restrained themselves because, “subprime was contained.” The declines began moving into the better areas (and Alt-A and prime mortgages), and then the intervention began in a way we’ve never seen before.
You are too focused on your micro-area, sdr. If you look around, you’ll see the same pattern everywhere. In cities all around the country, the mid/higher-end is levitating above normal, historical ratios when compared to the lower-end areas. The buoyancy of the mid-higher end is completely due to the govt/central bank intervention.
With all due respect, I’ve been here all my life, and have lived through multiple RE cycles in California. I’ll trust my knowledge, experience and frame of historical reference over your optimistic beliefs about real estate. It’s nothing personal, but what you’re saying has been said during every single bubble in California. I’ve seen the carnage in “bullet proof” areas before, and that was during a much better economy.
January 9, 2011 at 5:49 PM #650690CA renterParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]But the high end has fallen tremendously in certain areas. Not necessarily NCC SD but other high end areas across the country and in many parts of SD also. Were the policies set up to support NCC high end RE while allowing it to collapse in LV, PHX,FLA and even East County SD? This is utter nonsense you are putting forth.
Its the middle that is holding strongest as it should.
As for your certain circumstances, well everyone has certain circumstances specific to their own situation and many people have certain circumstances that allow them to buy here. The area you are looking has changed dramatically the last two decades and we have covered that ad infnitum in the past so dont try to throw out the old working class families used to be able to buy in Encinitas. The Encinitas of today is very different than the Encinitas of years long past.
Right or wrong, you are fighting a losing battle. The world is as it is and you either adopt an attitude that allows you suceed in it or you sit by and stew. It really is your choice and only yours.[/quote]
Actually, the patterns of price increases and declines happened pretty much the same across the country (and around the world, in many cases). The low end dropped first, because there was no buffer, and the Fed/govt restrained themselves because, “subprime was contained.” The declines began moving into the better areas (and Alt-A and prime mortgages), and then the intervention began in a way we’ve never seen before.
You are too focused on your micro-area, sdr. If you look around, you’ll see the same pattern everywhere. In cities all around the country, the mid/higher-end is levitating above normal, historical ratios when compared to the lower-end areas. The buoyancy of the mid-higher end is completely due to the govt/central bank intervention.
With all due respect, I’ve been here all my life, and have lived through multiple RE cycles in California. I’ll trust my knowledge, experience and frame of historical reference over your optimistic beliefs about real estate. It’s nothing personal, but what you’re saying has been said during every single bubble in California. I’ve seen the carnage in “bullet proof” areas before, and that was during a much better economy.
January 9, 2011 at 5:49 PM #650825CA renterParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]But the high end has fallen tremendously in certain areas. Not necessarily NCC SD but other high end areas across the country and in many parts of SD also. Were the policies set up to support NCC high end RE while allowing it to collapse in LV, PHX,FLA and even East County SD? This is utter nonsense you are putting forth.
Its the middle that is holding strongest as it should.
As for your certain circumstances, well everyone has certain circumstances specific to their own situation and many people have certain circumstances that allow them to buy here. The area you are looking has changed dramatically the last two decades and we have covered that ad infnitum in the past so dont try to throw out the old working class families used to be able to buy in Encinitas. The Encinitas of today is very different than the Encinitas of years long past.
Right or wrong, you are fighting a losing battle. The world is as it is and you either adopt an attitude that allows you suceed in it or you sit by and stew. It really is your choice and only yours.[/quote]
Actually, the patterns of price increases and declines happened pretty much the same across the country (and around the world, in many cases). The low end dropped first, because there was no buffer, and the Fed/govt restrained themselves because, “subprime was contained.” The declines began moving into the better areas (and Alt-A and prime mortgages), and then the intervention began in a way we’ve never seen before.
You are too focused on your micro-area, sdr. If you look around, you’ll see the same pattern everywhere. In cities all around the country, the mid/higher-end is levitating above normal, historical ratios when compared to the lower-end areas. The buoyancy of the mid-higher end is completely due to the govt/central bank intervention.
With all due respect, I’ve been here all my life, and have lived through multiple RE cycles in California. I’ll trust my knowledge, experience and frame of historical reference over your optimistic beliefs about real estate. It’s nothing personal, but what you’re saying has been said during every single bubble in California. I’ve seen the carnage in “bullet proof” areas before, and that was during a much better economy.
January 9, 2011 at 5:49 PM #651150CA renterParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]But the high end has fallen tremendously in certain areas. Not necessarily NCC SD but other high end areas across the country and in many parts of SD also. Were the policies set up to support NCC high end RE while allowing it to collapse in LV, PHX,FLA and even East County SD? This is utter nonsense you are putting forth.
Its the middle that is holding strongest as it should.
As for your certain circumstances, well everyone has certain circumstances specific to their own situation and many people have certain circumstances that allow them to buy here. The area you are looking has changed dramatically the last two decades and we have covered that ad infnitum in the past so dont try to throw out the old working class families used to be able to buy in Encinitas. The Encinitas of today is very different than the Encinitas of years long past.
Right or wrong, you are fighting a losing battle. The world is as it is and you either adopt an attitude that allows you suceed in it or you sit by and stew. It really is your choice and only yours.[/quote]
Actually, the patterns of price increases and declines happened pretty much the same across the country (and around the world, in many cases). The low end dropped first, because there was no buffer, and the Fed/govt restrained themselves because, “subprime was contained.” The declines began moving into the better areas (and Alt-A and prime mortgages), and then the intervention began in a way we’ve never seen before.
You are too focused on your micro-area, sdr. If you look around, you’ll see the same pattern everywhere. In cities all around the country, the mid/higher-end is levitating above normal, historical ratios when compared to the lower-end areas. The buoyancy of the mid-higher end is completely due to the govt/central bank intervention.
With all due respect, I’ve been here all my life, and have lived through multiple RE cycles in California. I’ll trust my knowledge, experience and frame of historical reference over your optimistic beliefs about real estate. It’s nothing personal, but what you’re saying has been said during every single bubble in California. I’ve seen the carnage in “bullet proof” areas before, and that was during a much better economy.
January 9, 2011 at 8:44 PM #650123sdrealtorParticipantI dont understand how expecting a flat to slightly decreasing market for the next 5 years could be considered optimistic. I am as pragmatic a person I know.
Markets are behaving differently everywhere. The high end has been high harder other places than our market has. How can you beleive federal gov’t policies are holding our prices up while allowing them to collpase in LV, PHX, FLA or East County. One of my neighbors moved to LV. I begged them not to sell, to rent out their house so they could come back in several year and rent a palace in LV. If they had that house would be down 10% from where they sold it. Instead they took that same money to LV and wha tthey bought is down over 50%, Does the govt love NCC anymore??? I dont think so. How can it be so hard to beleive there could be some fundamental strengths in our market that are keeping prices more stable here than other markets.
AN brough stats showing dramatic changes in teh incomes yet you deny anything fundamentally has changed. You can talk all the experience in SoCal you want. I grew up somewhere that I watched change the same way through multiple RE cycles. Its a very different place than it was in the 60″s and 70’s just like So Cal is. You refuse to believe are3as can change because that runs counter to your best interests. I have no best interests that concern me other than having fun every day wtih my children. Nothing else comes close to mattering to me. Pull out all the straw man arguments you want about bullet proof areas which I have never supported or said. Its all about attitude. You can chose to be positive and look for way to grow or you can stew. i choose the former.
January 9, 2011 at 8:44 PM #650192sdrealtorParticipantI dont understand how expecting a flat to slightly decreasing market for the next 5 years could be considered optimistic. I am as pragmatic a person I know.
Markets are behaving differently everywhere. The high end has been high harder other places than our market has. How can you beleive federal gov’t policies are holding our prices up while allowing them to collpase in LV, PHX, FLA or East County. One of my neighbors moved to LV. I begged them not to sell, to rent out their house so they could come back in several year and rent a palace in LV. If they had that house would be down 10% from where they sold it. Instead they took that same money to LV and wha tthey bought is down over 50%, Does the govt love NCC anymore??? I dont think so. How can it be so hard to beleive there could be some fundamental strengths in our market that are keeping prices more stable here than other markets.
AN brough stats showing dramatic changes in teh incomes yet you deny anything fundamentally has changed. You can talk all the experience in SoCal you want. I grew up somewhere that I watched change the same way through multiple RE cycles. Its a very different place than it was in the 60″s and 70’s just like So Cal is. You refuse to believe are3as can change because that runs counter to your best interests. I have no best interests that concern me other than having fun every day wtih my children. Nothing else comes close to mattering to me. Pull out all the straw man arguments you want about bullet proof areas which I have never supported or said. Its all about attitude. You can chose to be positive and look for way to grow or you can stew. i choose the former.
January 9, 2011 at 8:44 PM #650774sdrealtorParticipantI dont understand how expecting a flat to slightly decreasing market for the next 5 years could be considered optimistic. I am as pragmatic a person I know.
Markets are behaving differently everywhere. The high end has been high harder other places than our market has. How can you beleive federal gov’t policies are holding our prices up while allowing them to collpase in LV, PHX, FLA or East County. One of my neighbors moved to LV. I begged them not to sell, to rent out their house so they could come back in several year and rent a palace in LV. If they had that house would be down 10% from where they sold it. Instead they took that same money to LV and wha tthey bought is down over 50%, Does the govt love NCC anymore??? I dont think so. How can it be so hard to beleive there could be some fundamental strengths in our market that are keeping prices more stable here than other markets.
AN brough stats showing dramatic changes in teh incomes yet you deny anything fundamentally has changed. You can talk all the experience in SoCal you want. I grew up somewhere that I watched change the same way through multiple RE cycles. Its a very different place than it was in the 60″s and 70’s just like So Cal is. You refuse to believe are3as can change because that runs counter to your best interests. I have no best interests that concern me other than having fun every day wtih my children. Nothing else comes close to mattering to me. Pull out all the straw man arguments you want about bullet proof areas which I have never supported or said. Its all about attitude. You can chose to be positive and look for way to grow or you can stew. i choose the former.
January 9, 2011 at 8:44 PM #650908sdrealtorParticipantI dont understand how expecting a flat to slightly decreasing market for the next 5 years could be considered optimistic. I am as pragmatic a person I know.
Markets are behaving differently everywhere. The high end has been high harder other places than our market has. How can you beleive federal gov’t policies are holding our prices up while allowing them to collpase in LV, PHX, FLA or East County. One of my neighbors moved to LV. I begged them not to sell, to rent out their house so they could come back in several year and rent a palace in LV. If they had that house would be down 10% from where they sold it. Instead they took that same money to LV and wha tthey bought is down over 50%, Does the govt love NCC anymore??? I dont think so. How can it be so hard to beleive there could be some fundamental strengths in our market that are keeping prices more stable here than other markets.
AN brough stats showing dramatic changes in teh incomes yet you deny anything fundamentally has changed. You can talk all the experience in SoCal you want. I grew up somewhere that I watched change the same way through multiple RE cycles. Its a very different place than it was in the 60″s and 70’s just like So Cal is. You refuse to believe are3as can change because that runs counter to your best interests. I have no best interests that concern me other than having fun every day wtih my children. Nothing else comes close to mattering to me. Pull out all the straw man arguments you want about bullet proof areas which I have never supported or said. Its all about attitude. You can chose to be positive and look for way to grow or you can stew. i choose the former.
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