- This topic has 265 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 10 months ago by
CAwireman.
-
AuthorPosts
-
June 14, 2011 at 8:16 AM #704432June 14, 2011 at 9:29 AM #703241
Rich ToscanoKeymasterYes, that’s a very insightful question Gandalf.
I try to make the distinction between a 70s-style wage-driven inflation and a currency-driven inflation, which as you note can take place in the absence of wage growth or economic growth. I think a currency driven inflation is most likely what we will face at some point.
You are completely correct to note that these would have very different impacts on housing. Homes are (to borrow a phrase from Gregor Macdonald) call options on future wage growth. In a currency driven inflation, prices of stuff people need to by would likely be going up faster than wages. This would actually leave less money to buy houses, which along with rising interest rates would put downward pressure on home prices.
However, at the same time, the declining value of the currency will provide upward pressure on the nominal price of everything. I think that would likely prevent a “collapse” in prices in US$ terms. This is why my forecast/guess is that in the years ahead, home prices will continue to decline in real terms, but will be relatively stable in nominal terms. (They might decline further, but I just don’t see another nominal collapse or crash leg as being very likely).
Of course, this depends on the severity of how bad wages are compared to inflation, but I’m making the assumption that it won’t be as bad as what you saw in Argentina or something like that, simply because even despite all the recent damage we still have a much more productive economy than those countries.
June 14, 2011 at 9:29 AM #703338Rich ToscanoKeymasterYes, that’s a very insightful question Gandalf.
I try to make the distinction between a 70s-style wage-driven inflation and a currency-driven inflation, which as you note can take place in the absence of wage growth or economic growth. I think a currency driven inflation is most likely what we will face at some point.
You are completely correct to note that these would have very different impacts on housing. Homes are (to borrow a phrase from Gregor Macdonald) call options on future wage growth. In a currency driven inflation, prices of stuff people need to by would likely be going up faster than wages. This would actually leave less money to buy houses, which along with rising interest rates would put downward pressure on home prices.
However, at the same time, the declining value of the currency will provide upward pressure on the nominal price of everything. I think that would likely prevent a “collapse” in prices in US$ terms. This is why my forecast/guess is that in the years ahead, home prices will continue to decline in real terms, but will be relatively stable in nominal terms. (They might decline further, but I just don’t see another nominal collapse or crash leg as being very likely).
Of course, this depends on the severity of how bad wages are compared to inflation, but I’m making the assumption that it won’t be as bad as what you saw in Argentina or something like that, simply because even despite all the recent damage we still have a much more productive economy than those countries.
June 14, 2011 at 9:29 AM #703928Rich ToscanoKeymasterYes, that’s a very insightful question Gandalf.
I try to make the distinction between a 70s-style wage-driven inflation and a currency-driven inflation, which as you note can take place in the absence of wage growth or economic growth. I think a currency driven inflation is most likely what we will face at some point.
You are completely correct to note that these would have very different impacts on housing. Homes are (to borrow a phrase from Gregor Macdonald) call options on future wage growth. In a currency driven inflation, prices of stuff people need to by would likely be going up faster than wages. This would actually leave less money to buy houses, which along with rising interest rates would put downward pressure on home prices.
However, at the same time, the declining value of the currency will provide upward pressure on the nominal price of everything. I think that would likely prevent a “collapse” in prices in US$ terms. This is why my forecast/guess is that in the years ahead, home prices will continue to decline in real terms, but will be relatively stable in nominal terms. (They might decline further, but I just don’t see another nominal collapse or crash leg as being very likely).
Of course, this depends on the severity of how bad wages are compared to inflation, but I’m making the assumption that it won’t be as bad as what you saw in Argentina or something like that, simply because even despite all the recent damage we still have a much more productive economy than those countries.
June 14, 2011 at 9:29 AM #704077Rich ToscanoKeymasterYes, that’s a very insightful question Gandalf.
I try to make the distinction between a 70s-style wage-driven inflation and a currency-driven inflation, which as you note can take place in the absence of wage growth or economic growth. I think a currency driven inflation is most likely what we will face at some point.
You are completely correct to note that these would have very different impacts on housing. Homes are (to borrow a phrase from Gregor Macdonald) call options on future wage growth. In a currency driven inflation, prices of stuff people need to by would likely be going up faster than wages. This would actually leave less money to buy houses, which along with rising interest rates would put downward pressure on home prices.
However, at the same time, the declining value of the currency will provide upward pressure on the nominal price of everything. I think that would likely prevent a “collapse” in prices in US$ terms. This is why my forecast/guess is that in the years ahead, home prices will continue to decline in real terms, but will be relatively stable in nominal terms. (They might decline further, but I just don’t see another nominal collapse or crash leg as being very likely).
Of course, this depends on the severity of how bad wages are compared to inflation, but I’m making the assumption that it won’t be as bad as what you saw in Argentina or something like that, simply because even despite all the recent damage we still have a much more productive economy than those countries.
June 14, 2011 at 9:29 AM #704437Rich ToscanoKeymasterYes, that’s a very insightful question Gandalf.
I try to make the distinction between a 70s-style wage-driven inflation and a currency-driven inflation, which as you note can take place in the absence of wage growth or economic growth. I think a currency driven inflation is most likely what we will face at some point.
You are completely correct to note that these would have very different impacts on housing. Homes are (to borrow a phrase from Gregor Macdonald) call options on future wage growth. In a currency driven inflation, prices of stuff people need to by would likely be going up faster than wages. This would actually leave less money to buy houses, which along with rising interest rates would put downward pressure on home prices.
However, at the same time, the declining value of the currency will provide upward pressure on the nominal price of everything. I think that would likely prevent a “collapse” in prices in US$ terms. This is why my forecast/guess is that in the years ahead, home prices will continue to decline in real terms, but will be relatively stable in nominal terms. (They might decline further, but I just don’t see another nominal collapse or crash leg as being very likely).
Of course, this depends on the severity of how bad wages are compared to inflation, but I’m making the assumption that it won’t be as bad as what you saw in Argentina or something like that, simply because even despite all the recent damage we still have a much more productive economy than those countries.
June 15, 2011 at 8:53 AM #703628CAwireman
ParticipantShiller clarifies, but still underscores “Could”…
Interesting article. Shiller has books he’s trying to sell by the way. He does mention one of them in the interview. Promoting his book to some degree…
But, its interesting to listen to Robert’s interviews….
June 15, 2011 at 8:53 AM #703725ParticipantShiller clarifies, but still underscores “Could”…
Interesting article. Shiller has books he’s trying to sell by the way. He does mention one of them in the interview. Promoting his book to some degree…
But, its interesting to listen to Robert’s interviews….
June 15, 2011 at 8:53 AM #704316ParticipantShiller clarifies, but still underscores “Could”…
Interesting article. Shiller has books he’s trying to sell by the way. He does mention one of them in the interview. Promoting his book to some degree…
But, its interesting to listen to Robert’s interviews….
June 15, 2011 at 8:53 AM #704464ParticipantShiller clarifies, but still underscores “Could”…
Interesting article. Shiller has books he’s trying to sell by the way. He does mention one of them in the interview. Promoting his book to some degree…
But, its interesting to listen to Robert’s interviews….
June 15, 2011 at 8:53 AM #704821ParticipantShiller clarifies, but still underscores “Could”…
Interesting article. Shiller has books he’s trying to sell by the way. He does mention one of them in the interview. Promoting his book to some degree…
But, its interesting to listen to Robert’s interviews….
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.